2014-12-31 – Website Updated |
Today’s SUBSCRIBER ONLY recommendation will NO LONGER be featured on this page.
Only Nails subscribers will have access to the open portfolio and current picks. Please check the CURRENT DITM PICKS page for today’s article and trading details. We will reserve this page for the article archive which will be published here one week after they post. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned. —————————————————————————– At the time of publication, Mr. Dykstra will not, directly or indirectly, have a position in any security that he discusses in Nails Investments by Lenny “Nails” Dykstra (the”Product”). HOWEVER, MR. DYKSTRA MAY ENTER ORDERS TO PURCHASE OR SELL SECURITIES MENTIONED IN THE PRODUCT AFTER 10:30 A.M. ON THE TRADING DAY FOLLOWING THE DATE ON WHICH THE SECURITY IS MENTIONED IN THE PRODUCT. IF YOU ENTER ORDERS TO BUY OR SELL SECURITIES AFTER 10:30 A.M., IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MR. DYKSTRA MAY HAVE PURCHASED OR SOLD THE SECURITY AT A PRICE MORE ADVANTAGEOUS THAN THE PRICE YOU WILL OBTAIN. Mr. Dykstra is not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment advisor either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or with any state securities regulatory authority. Nails Investments contains Mr. Dykstra’s own opinions and is provided for informational purposes only. You should not rely solely upon Nails Investments for purposes of transacting securities or other investments, and you are encouraged to conduct your own research and due diligence, and to seek the advice of a qualified securities professional, before you make any investment. None of the information contained herein constitutes, or is intended to constitute a recommendation by Lenny Dykstra of any particular security or trading strategy or a determination by Lenny Dykstra or Nails Investments that any security or trading strategy is suitable for any specific person. To the extent any of the information contained herein may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURE: Options trading carries substantial monetary risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Unlike stock trading, there are different levels of risk associated with various options positions, and you should familiarize yourself with the type of options (i.e., put or call) you contemplate trading. The Product includes a list of stocks chosen by Mr. Dykstra in accordance with his stated investment strategy. Your actual results may differ from results reported for the list for many reasons, including, without limitation: (i) performance results for the list do not reflect actual trading commissions that you may incur; (ii) performance results for the list do not account for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity, that may affect your results; (iii) the price of stocks chosen for the list may change in a short period of time, and although the “purchase” or “sale” of a stock on the list will not be affected on the list until confirmation that the email alert has been sent to all subscribers, delivery delays and other factors may cause the price you obtain to differ substantially from the price at the time the alert was sent; and (iv) the prices of stocks on the list at the point in time you begin subscribing to the Product may be higher than such prices at the time such stocks were chosen for inclusion on the list. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. All suggested trading ideas involve the purchase of 10 options contracts, unless otherwise noted. |
2014-10-31 – Portfolio Review |
Today is review day. The portfolio has shortened up quite a bit over last months, yet I have updated several rebuys that will post in the next few minutes.
EMC Corporation (EMC) – was added to the open portfolio on October 10th. The options are currently going for $8.55 and the rebuy is looking good. We are up on the position by about a quarter, but the stock is peaking. If it pushes up to the previous high, we’ll be in good shape for a win. Intel Corporation (INTC) – was added to the portfolio on September 24th. We have 30 contracts with an average price of $8.30 and the options are currently going for $8.06 as of yesterday’s close. On Thursday the options closed at $9.29, one penny off the GTC selling price, missing the win by a teeny tiny margin. This morning the options are back up and could close out the position soon. The re-buy for INTC has been increased by $1.00. Ford Motor Company (F) – was added to the portfolio on September 10th. We now hold 40 contracts with an average price of $5.20. The options are currently going for $4.15 and the stock really plummeted this last month. The rebuy is fine – just be sure to stock up on these if the stock drops enough to trigger it. The options are cheap and it looks like Ford has the opportunity to rally for us this next month. AT&T (T) – was added to the open portfolio on August 27th. We have 20 contracts at $4.70 and they are currently selling for $4.71. I have adjusted the rebuy to reflect current support, however if we see the new rebuy trigger – be sure buying more will improve your position. If not, don’t bother buying more. T looks to be in a good place for improved upward momentum. Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) was originally purchased on August 22nd and doing well, the price for the options we hold is $4.40 and the options are going for $4.55 as of yesterday’s close. The rebuy price here has also been increased due to newer support levels. Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) has turned into a problem child. We have had this position open since August 18th and in that time it has dropped like a rock. Down, down, down it goes. We now have 60 contracts with an average price of $11.50 and the options are going for $9.90. This has been a costly choice and expensive to re-buy. However, when it goes back up – we can all toast to our lovely victory as it will be a good one. If you are holding XOM and are worried about the re-buys – you can always go to the buying of a re-buy every other posting. It will cost less and it will do wonders for your average price. I have increased the rebuy price here as well. General Electric (GE) – has been on the scorecard since January 10th. We have 70 contracts with an average price of $4.10 and the current price for the options is $3.55. Watch the rebuy price & get more of these if it drops back down. With all the re-buy recommendations – it’s doubly important to clear out this position before the end of the year. GE has been going up for the last couple weeks. Not sure the rally will carry it to the GTC by the next review, but the position is looking much better. If you have GE still, pop me a note letting me know how many you have and your average price. It’s time to warm up the roll over spread sheet and look to moving this position into 2016 or selling for a loss or possibly a break even. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned. |
2014-10-29 – Re-List Your Wins With EBAY |
We’ve had a pretty good week here at Nails with nine picks crossing the finish line and moving into the winner’s circle for us. That brings our win total up to 474.
For this morning’s pick – the “buy it now” recommendation goes once again to eBay Inc. (EBAY). The choppiness of the stock chart makes it a great Nails choice for really quick results. We like quick. I made this choice about a week ago – but the position wasn’t filled. Let’s see if we can get on base this morning with the same pick. Lots of stocks have started to rally nicely, with eBay it hasn’t topped out yet, while other choices are looking closer to the top. The online auction house has been around since 1995 and has close to 32,000 full timers and does more than just allow you to clean out your garage or the contents of your sock drawer. It’s a household name and you can find just about anything your heart desires on eBay and of course, in the process, they make their cut, but they also own PayPal (for a bit longer), so they get another cut there. That results in about $17.51 billion in revenue annually. I like eBay this morning for the stock chart. Share price sits very close to the 52-week low when looking at the yearly chart. In the last year, the share price has moved between $46.34 and 59.70, and with precision-like regularity it has gone up and down several times. Here are the stats to look at: Revenue comes in as noted above at $17.51 billion, cash in the bank sits at $10.39 billion and operational cash flow is measured to be $5.75 billion with total debt at $7.61 billion. The forward P/E ratio sits at 15.57 and share price shows continued upside potential. I’ve gone with the $40’s today to get a somewhat reasonable premium and add some additional intrinsic value to the recommendation. Although, taking it deeper into-the-money, the premium for EBAY is still high for the Nails formula. In crunching the average premium over the last three months, it’s been pretty consistent; high, but consistent. Please remember to immediately place a good-till-cancel (GTC) sell order $1.00 higher than the fill price in order to grab a $1,000 victory as soon as possible. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! |
2014-10-27 – Prop Up Your Wins With UTX |
This morning, I am going with one of our Nails long time favorites, United Technologies Corporation (UTX). Getting a Win out of UTX is easy, getting on base – much more difficult with UTX. I’ve done some averages on the premium for today’s recommendation and what calculates as the best entry price for UTX this morning. Please don’t go over the posted amount.
As you know from previous columns, UTX specializes in technology products, building systems and aerospace. The options for this company have always been elusive, to say the least, but it is better to go after the best companies and not get filled – over going with a so-so company that fills and ends up being a so-so choice. There is nothing so-so about UTX. Anyone who has spent time in an elevator or used an escalator or moving sidewalk is familiar with their Otis segment, and one would be equally hard-pressed to find someone who has never heard of Carrier cooling systems, Pratt & Whitney jet engines or Sikorsky helicopters – all of which are UTX brands. United Technologies is a mega-conglomerate that is vastly diverse and on the cutting edge on technological innovation. They employ more than 212,000 people and have been around since 1934; UTX is here to stay and has been a valuable component in the Nails DITM strategy. Here are the numbers to take note of: Revenue: $64.86 billion; Forward P/E ratio: 14.18; PEG ratio: 1.41; Return on equity: 20.13%; Cash: $5.04 billion; Debt: $20.00 billion; and, Operating cash flow: $7.61 billion. I like the stock chart today more than others I have looked at. UTX is down several points from the recent high, but slightly up from the 52-week low. Although I may need to look at the 2-year chart for support levels, the timing is looking good for a quick Nails win. Please be sure to set a GTC sell order for $1.00 more than the purchase price to lock in a $1000 gain when the price hits our sales target. Remember: Life’s a Journey, Enjoy the ride. (At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stock mentioned.) |
2014-10-24 – Everyone’s Favorite Cookie with MDLZ |
This morning I am going with Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ), now makers of the ever-popular Oreo and many other recognizable brands.
MDLZ., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets cookies, crackers, and salted snacks; chocolates, gums, and candies; powdered beverages and coffee; and other grocery products. Its primary brand portfolio includes Oreo, Nabisco, Cadbury, Trident, Jacobs, and Tang. The company was formerly known as Kraft Foods Inc. and changed its name to Mondelez International, Inc. in October 2012. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois. According to the MDLZ website, they are the world’s pre-eminent maker of snacks, with leading market shares in every category in which they compete, holding the No. 1 position globally in Biscuits, Chocolate, Candy and Powdered Beverages as well as the No. 2 position in Gum and Coffee. About three-quarters of their annual revenue is generated in the fast-growing Biscuits, Chocolate and Gum & Candy categories, and nearly 40 percent of their sales come from high-growth emerging markets. Right now the numbers for MDLZ are: Forward P/E ratio of 18.05, Return on Equity of 6.19%, Revenue of over $35.04 billion, total cash on the balance sheet of $2.29 billion, debt of $18.58 billion, which is hefty compared to operating cash flow of $6.36 billion. The stock closed yesterday at $34.11, which is off the 52-week high by a few points with short term support at about $32. There is additional support at nice intervals but looking at the 2-year stock chart for it. Please see the scorecard page for trading details and if the order is filled, the GTC (good ’til cancelled) order should be set immediately at $1 above the purchase price. Then grab a package of double-stuffed Oreos, poor yourself a large glass of milk, and enjoy. Remember: Life’s a Journey; enjoy the ride. Note: Dykstra held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-10-22 – Pop a Coke & Share a Smile |
Today choice is coming down off of a recent spike due to over-reaction to earnings that were announced yesterday and is looking as though we could get in before investors realize they sold too much too quickly.
Today I am going with Coca-Cola Company (KO). Coke is it! Coca-Cola Company is the largest beverage company in the world and produces over 500 brands. They are also the No.1 provider of sparkling beverages, juices and juice drinks and ready-to-drink teas and coffee. Even with pressure from the United Nations to limit advertising to emerging markets to restrict advertising to children under 12, there may not be anywhere that Coke hasn’t already sewn up the market, as it is the world’s most recognizable brand. Founded in 1886 and headquartered in Atlanta Georgia and employing about 130,000 people worldwide, Coca-Cola represents the world’s most valuable brand and KO products are sold in over 200 countries worldwide at the rate of 1.6 billion servings per day. By selling the syrups direct to local bottlers and licensing the brand names, Coca-Cola has developed a distribution system that works beautifully. The company focuses on marketing and production and does an excellent job of keeping up with current trends in the beverage market. The brands are so diverse- Fanta, Sprite, Nestea, vitaminwater, Odwalla, Sprite, Minute Maid, Hi-C, Powerade, and so many more… Chances are, if it’s non-alcoholic and comes in a can or bottle, it is likely a Coca-Cola product. Right now the numbers for Coca-Cola are as follows: Forward P/E ratio of 18.66, Return on Equity of 25.08%, Revenue at $46.22 billion, total cash on the balance sheet of $21.61 billion, debt of $40.25 billion, and operating cash of $11.06 billion. The stock closed yesterday at $40.68 and might dip down a bit more before it starts heading back up, so if you can get in now, the options are going for less than the Nails formula and I’ve lowered my entry price beyond that as well. I am recommending an entry price below the bid. If we don’t get on base, we can revisit the choice later in the week. It may be better to wait a day or two to see how low it can go. With yesterday’s wins, we can be patient with our gains and put them in the best position to earn more profits. Remember to place a GTC sell order to lock in a win if your order is filled. Remember: Life’s a Journey, Enjoy the ride. Note: Dykstra held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-10-20 – Check Your Watch List with EBAY |
That was quite the hit the market has been taking with Wednesday marking the day with the almost the most re-buys ever posted. We nearly got one for each open position. If you weren’t able to re-buy all those that hit the desired prices, don’t fret – there is time still to improve your positions. When choosing re-buys over each other, should you have to make a choice – go with the one that will offer the most leverage. Always seek to do the best you can to improve your position. Those like VZ and AT&T did little to move the ball forward or lower the average price of the position held, I would have held off on those if faced with a choice.
Today we will look to once again to add Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) to the portfolio. The world’s largest retailer has the distinction of being the world’s largest, because they have successfully combined savings with a wide selection. The stock, along with just about everything else, has pulled back from the recent high well enough to trigger the buy button. Wal-Mart has opened lower this morning with other choices moving up. I’ve set my aim lower still. We won’t get a buy unless the giant discounter gives us an even better discount. Wal-Mart is a Major League company and they know how to make that cash register ring 24-7 with revenues of $480.48 billion. Yes, that’s right, with all the numbers listed out it reads $480,480,000,000.00 in sales per year. That is a lot of zeros and a figure that is closing in on half a trillion dollars and in doing the math for that, it comes out to $1.31 billion per day; $54.8 million per hour; $914.1 thousand per minute; and $15,236 in sales per second. The register rings every day, 24 hours per day. Can you imagine, truly imagine almost a million dollars in revenue a minute? The company generates $23.91 billion in operating cash flow, have $6.18 billion in the bank with a hefty debt load of $54.21 billion. Although the debt is large in comparison to cash, this is long term debt, in the stores, the buildings and the land they sit on. You can’t own that much real estate without owing a few mortgage payments and that averages out to about $5.3 million per store. When you consider the size and value of each store, considering only the real estate, it’s not a huge debt to equity position to have. The company has a return-on-equity (ROE) of 20.27% which is good considering their profit margins are small. Forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is currently at 13.71. If the order is filled, don’t forget to place a good-till-cancel (GTC) sell order $1.00 higher than the fill price in order to grab a $1,000 victory as soon as possible. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned. |
2014-10-17 – Discount Shopping at WMT |
That was quite the hit the market has been taking with Wednesday marking the day with the almost the most re-buys ever posted. We nearly got one for each open position. If you weren’t able to re-buy all those that hit the desired prices, don’t fret – there is time still to improve your positions. When choosing re-buys over each other, should you have to make a choice – go with the one that will offer the most leverage. Always seek to do the best you can to improve your position. Those like VZ and AT&T did little to move the ball forward or lower the average price of the position held, I would have held off on those if faced with a choice.
Today we will look to once again to add Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) to the portfolio. The world’s largest retailer has the distinction of being the world’s largest, because they have successfully combined savings with a wide selection. The stock, along with just about everything else, has pulled back from the recent high well enough to trigger the buy button. Wal-Mart has opened lower this morning with other choices moving up. I’ve set my aim lower still. We won’t get a buy unless the giant discounter gives us an even better discount. Wal-Mart is a Major League company and they know how to make that cash register ring 24-7 with revenues of $480.48 billion. Yes, that’s right, with all the numbers listed out it reads $480,480,000,000.00 in sales per year. That is a lot of zeros and a figure that is closing in on half a trillion dollars and in doing the math for that, it comes out to $1.31 billion per day; $54.8 million per hour; $914.1 thousand per minute; and $15,236 in sales per second. The register rings every day, 24 hours per day. Can you imagine, truly imagine almost a million dollars in revenue a minute? The company generates $23.91 billion in operating cash flow, have $6.18 billion in the bank with a hefty debt load of $54.21 billion. Although the debt is large in comparison to cash, this is long term debt, in the stores, the buildings and the land they sit on. You can’t own that much real estate without owing a few mortgage payments and that averages out to about $5.3 million per store. When you consider the size and value of each store, considering only the real estate, it’s not a huge debt to equity position to have. The company has a return-on-equity (ROE) of 20.27% which is good considering their profit margins are small. Forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is currently at 13.71. If the order is filled, don’t forget to place a good-till-cancel (GTC) sell order $1.00 higher than the fill price in order to grab a $1,000 victory as soon as possible. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned. |
2014-10-15 – Back to the Orchard for More AAPL |
Today I am looking to take another bite out of Apple, Inc. (AAPL) and add it to the portfolio for another quick win. Since the stock split, AAPL has been my go to choice for quick scoring. Are you ready for another quick win?
AAPL headquartered in Cupertino, California with about 80,000 full-time employees. The company manufactures, and markets mobile communication and media devices, personal computers, and portable digital music players worldwide in addition to software and music, books and other media. If you can think it up, there’s an app for that and you can buy it in the app store. The experience when you buy Apple and open the packaging is bar none. They provide the best un-wrap experience of any product on the market. I’ve always been an advocate of presentation and Apple knows how to do it. A few week back, I was one in ten million that purchased a new iPhone 6 with the launch. With all the negative press – you would think the product would be a disappointment – but, no – it’s beautiful and every bit as fabulous as any new Apple product is expected to be. Next week we have earnings, so things are approaching the no buy zone. AAPL has been consistently scoring in a day or two – so it might not be an issue. But, if earnings announcements make your teeth itch, then just wait for the next at bat with AAPL. I hope to see many more before they get past our price range. If you want a pick this morning that’s not AAPL – go to any of the stocks listed in the open portfolio that hit a rebuy in the last couple of days and put your money there. Here are the numbers – revenue of $178.14 billion; a forward P/E of 13.51; operating cash flow of $56.37 billion; total cash on hand of $37.93 billion; and debt of $31.04 (has increased quite a bit over last quarter’s numbers), making AAPL a very nice choice even with the sharp increase to liabilities. I’d say the increase is the financing and ordering of materials for the iPhone6 launch but with the influx of sales, we should see that number go down next quarter. Remember, once filled – please remember to place a GTC sell order a dollar higher than the purchase price, as this will automatically capture what we set out to achieve; a really quick $1,000 dollar profit. Remember: Life’s a Journey, Enjoy the ride.
(At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stock mentioned.) |
2014-10-13 – Tech Gets Spanked – So Let’s Buy MSFT |
There are a lot of re-buys to post this morning. All our tech stocks got pummeled on Friday. Ouch! That was quite the spanking and I’ll be posting rebuy numbers for TXN, DIS, INTC and QCOM (3 out of 4 were tech stocks).
But sector crashes mean sector opportunities. Therefore, this morning’s choice is Microsoft Corporation (MSFT). MSFT’s share price been going up since last September, although somewhat choppily. With the most recent drop we have a very nice Nails opportunity. Even with the hammering the NASDAQ took on Friday, MSFT remains one of the strongest out there, period. You can let the numbers be your guide. MSFT has a Forward P/E ratio of 13.76; revenue remains very nice at $86.83 billion; cash in the bank at $84.94 billion (which is a lovely number); and, debt of only $23.22 billion in comparison with operating cash flow of over $32.23 billion which is excellent in anyone’s book. I wish my personal balance sheet looked that nice, even proportionally. Return on Equity is a strong at 26.17%. Next week, MSFT will report earnings so you can sit it out if you feel it’s prudent. Many might say that I’m not providing a diversified portfolio – and I’m not. When a sector of the market shows opportunity, I’ll try to post as many options there as I see. It’s up to you to provide diversification for your pocketbook. And, if AAPL looks like it’ll score another one day win for us, you can count on me pointing that out on Wednesday, even with the portfolio being somewhat tech heavy. And, this morning I like the stock chart for MSFT, as there is just enough of a pull back that we can jump in and score a win without the stock needing to recover fully from the recent hammering the tech sector is going through. Although, this is one of those weeks where you probably could throw a dart at all our stocks in the Nails basket and come up with one that is showing potential for a bounce. If your order is filled, don’t forget to set a good-till-cancel (GTC) sell order $1.00 above the purchase price to lock in a win. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! Note: Dykstra held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-10-10 – A Cat Round Up with EMC |
Once again the pick is IT giant EMC Corp. (EMC). EMC is a monster company that has been providing information storage solutions for 30+ years. They provide IT solutions to every industry and to nearly every country around the globe. If you’ve got a computer network, chances are good EMC was or is involved. Their company tag line is: “where information lives,” and they aren’t kidding.
I like the stock chart this morning and the slow stochastic chart is on target too for timing a buy. In looking at the numbers I see a forward P/E of 11.80, which is a good indicator that the stock is trading at a good price. Anything under 15 is considered to be undervalued, and that is the place we want our stocks to be priced. When they are undervalued, that’s the best time to buy. Revenue for the company is close to $23.58 billion, total cash on hand is $7.65 billion and debt is very reasonable at $5.49 billion. The company scores big for keeping debt ratios manageable and operating cash flow of $6.57 billion is also very healthy. EMC’s stock chart is showing a sizable drop in share price over the last couple weeks along with everything else. I see this as a clear opportunity to put more cash in the bank for the Nails strategy. I’m going with the $20’s this morning, but if you wanted to go cheaper on the options, you could just as easily go with the $23’s at $6.40 or better. Odds are better that the 20’s are filled over the 23’s but if you can get it – saving $3.00 on the position is more you can spend elsewhere. Please remember to immediately set up a GTC sell order $1.00 higher to cash out a cool $1000 gain. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! Note: Dykstra held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-10-08 – Love Them AAPL’s |
Today I am looking to take another bite out of Apple, Inc. (AAPL) and add it to the portfolio for another quick win. Since the stock split, AAPL has been my go to choice for quick scoring. Are you ready for another quick run?
The options I’m recommending are expensive. I promise I’ll stop picking AAPL if the option prices top $25.00. That’s about the limit I’d be willing to go for a recommendation. I did consider going with the Jan 2016 $90.00’s but, they should be a bit less expensive in the general sense. As it is, I’m padding Lenny’s formula of stock price plus a buck less the strike price equaling the recommendation. In this case our premium is nearing four dollars. It has been consistently that high for this option, and going to the 90’s would mean a premium of close to $8.00. That’s quite a bit extra on top. AAPL is worth a bit extra, just not that much. AAPL headquartered in Cupertino, California with about 80,000 full-time employees. The company manufactures, and markets mobile communication and media devices, personal computers, and portable digital music players worldwide in addition to software and music, books and other media. If you can think it up, there’s an app for that and you can buy it in the app store. The experience when you buy Apple and open the packaging is bar none. They provide the best un-wrap experience of any product on the market. I’ve always been an advocate of presentation and Apple knows how to offer up the very best in presentation. I was one in ten million that purchased a new iPhone 6 with the launch. With all the negative press – you would think the product would be a disappointment – but, no – it’s beautiful and every bit as fabulous as any new Apple product is expected to be. I showed it off to Lenny yesterday and I could see that it’s going to be a long wait for him until he can upgrade. Here are the numbers – revenue of $178.14 billion; a forward P/E of 13.55; operating cash flow of $56.37 billion; total cash on hand of $37.93 billion; and debt of $31.04 (has increased quite a bit over last quarters numbers), making AAPL a very nice choice even with the sharp increase to liabilities. I’d say the increase is the financing and ordering of materials for the iPhone6 launch but with the influx of sales, we should see that number go down next quarter. However, once again please check out the stock chart before you buy. With the Nails strategy, it is more typical for me to pick stocks that not this close to the 52-week high. But, with last couple week’s drop in price of close to five points (again), I feel another quick bounce coming for a nice DITM calls win. It makes me think of Tigger (from Winnie the Pooh), with all the nice bouncing, which for us – can be fun, fun, fun, fun, fun. And, like Tigger – Apple might just be the only one we can bounce with so close to the top. Remember, once filled – please remember to place a GTC sell order a dollar higher than the purchase price, as this will automatically capture what we set out to achieve; a really quick $1,000 dollar profit. Remember: Life’s a journey, enjoy the ride. At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stock mentioned.) |
2014-10-06 – Everything is Bigger with TXN |
Let’s get right to today’s pick: Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN), creators of the first computer using integrated circuits and the first handheld calculator. TXN has an excellent track record here at Nails and one of my personal favorites.
TI’s vision for new products is to help create self-driving cars for and controls for home appliances linked to your cells phones. In the future – TI and I both seem to think that our world will soon be condensed into what can be programmed into a phone app or how you can gain access to their new DLP technology for projectors using a wide array of platforms, including again – smart phones, tablets and laptops. From previous columns about the company, you will know that Texas Instruments is a world leader in digital signal processing and analog technologies. With about 32,000 employees worldwide, they have a rock solid balance sheet and have proven to be winners for us here at Nails time and time again. Revenue comes in at $12.55 billion and the company’s forward P/E ratio is routinely a bit on the high side at 17.03 and return on equity posts at 21.45%. TXN manufactures a whole host of products, from audio, video and imaging — to medical, industrial and military products and applications. This company is all about cash management and that is a very healthy way to run a business. Debt doesn’t have to be bad, but if you can keep your cash in the bank and generate continued organic company growth – you are certainly doing something right. Although in 2012, TXN added a bit of long term financing to its balance sheet– adding debt by financing the purchase of National Semiconductor. And it is through this purchase of National Semiconductor that supplies Apple components which has been helping TXN’s share price for a while. They have cash in the bank totaling $2.80 billion, debt of $4.65 billion and operating cash flow of $3.59 billion. Looking to the chart, we see Texas Instruments has been steadily climbing since mid-October of 2012 and currently sits in the mid $40’s. I am seeing support at several levels and room at the top after our most recent pull back, so we wouldn’t need to break resistance to see a win. We don’t need much of a spread for a good DITM opportunity, so today offers us a good opportunity for a buy. Please remember it is important to set a good-till-cancel (GTC) sell order $1.00 above the purchase price to lock in a win, should your order fill. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride!
Note: Dykstra held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-10-03 – Portfolio Review |
Today is review day and we may as well call it re-buy day as there were lots of re-buys to add to the portfolio and make adjustments to the open portfolio. The portfolio is lengthy so, please note all the changes. Also remember that it’s better to buy a re-buy on a position over buying into a new position as in the long run protecting what you have is better than shopping for something new.
Walt Disney Company (DIS) – was added to the open portfolio on Wednesday and no new changes are needed, but if anyone waited a day and bought it yesterday instead of on Wednesday – you’ll be happy campers. This morning the stock is back to where it was on Wednesday, but yesterday’s dip would have been nice to take advantage of. Corning Inc. (GLW) – posted a re-buy on Wednesday. The position now has 20 contracts with an average price of $4.80 and the re-buy has been adjusted accordingly. Intel Corporation (INTC) – was added to the portfolio on September 24th. We have 10 contracts with an average price of $10.00 and the options are currently going for $8.90 as of yesterday’s close. This morning the options are back up to $8.90-9.40. The re-buy for INTC is fine. Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) – was added to the portfolio on September 15th. We have 20 contracts with an average price of $12.90 and the options are going for $12.50 as of yesterday’s close. The re-buy price for SBUX is OK. Valero Energy Corp. (VLO) – has been on the open portfolio since September 12th. In that time the stock has already hit three re-buys bringing our contract total up to 40 and lowering our average from $11.60 when we bought it, down to $9.90. The options are currently trading for $8.20. The re-buy has been adjusted as usual. Ford Motor Company (F) – was added to the portfolio on September 10th. We now hold 30 contracts with an average price of $5.50. Ford took a tumble yesterday and I needed to look at the 2-year chart to recalculate the re-buy price. Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) – has been with us since September 3rd. We have 20 contracts with an average price of $11.00 and the options closed yesterday at $10.45. The re-buy price is OK. AT&T (T) – was just added to the open portfolio on August 27th. We have 10 contracts at $4.90 and they are currently selling for $5.10. It’s nice to see that with all the stock prices diving for cover, that there are a few doing OK. The re-buy price for T is good. Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) too is OK, the price for the options we hold is $5.10 and the options are going for $5.30 as of yesterday’s close. The rebuy price is good here too. Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) is turning into a problem child. We have had this position open since August 18th and in that time it has dropped like a rock. Down, down, down it goes. We now have 50 contracts with an average price of $12.00 and the options are going for $9.80. This has been a costly choice and expensive to re-buy. However, when it goes back up – we can all toast to our lovely victory as it will be a good one. If you are holding XOM and are worried about the re-buys – you can always go to the buying of a re-buy every other posting. It will cost less and it will do wonders for your average price. Verizon Communications (VZ) are all recent additions to the open portfolio and no changes are needed at this time. VZ is another one that is doing OK. We have 10 contracts and they are going for $0.60 more than our average price. Nice! Deere & Company (DE) was added to the open portfolio on July 16th. We currently have 80 contracts with an average price of $9.20 and the options are going for $7.11. Price wise – I’ve adjusted the re-buy up a bit, as we could really use some lower prices in the mix to get that average price down. General Electric (GE) – has been on the scorecard since January 10th. Here the rebuy price was only two cents over the recommendation. We have 50 contracts with an average price of $4.50 and the current price for the options is $3.30. Watch the rebuy price & get more of these now if you can. With all the re-buy recommendations – it’s doubly important to clear out this position before the end of the year. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned. |
2014-10-01 – DIS Is Entertainment |
Today, I am going once again with a very well known brand that has provided happiness, joy and adventure for all ages since 1955, the Walt Disney Co. (DIS).
There is probably no other company you can invest in that is guaranteed to instill some appreciation for what they do from people of all ages. Disney has had a small drop in share price over the last couple weeks along with the rest of the market. However, if you’re looking for a stock chart that is signaling “market correction” you won’t find it here. Overall trending is moving upward steadily. This slight drop is the opportunity we need to catch a quick win on the bounce. Plus there are several layers of support should the stock not bounce high enough right away. Current company stats are as follows: Revenue comes in at $47.99 billion; Forward P/E is 18.90 and the PEG Ratio is 1.27; Return on Equity is 16.76%; total cash is $4.09 billion; operating cash flow is $9.41 billion and debt is a little less than twice that at $16.14 billion. The forward P/E ratio is consistent for DIS, so although a bit high for what Nails likes to recommend, it’s consistent and not a red flag and is a bit higher than the last time we went with DIS. It is the stock chart I like the best about DIS right now. It’s been steadily climbing and looks to continue the trend. Please remember that as soon as an order fills, it is always a good idea to place your limit order for the sell at a $1.00 higher than the purchase price, to lock in a win – as soon as it happens. Remember: Life is a Journey; enjoy the ride! Note: Dykstra held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-09-29 – Pick another AAPL |
On Friday, I came in with two recommendations. GLW was picked up, but AAPL rose in the morning too quickly to make a grab. In this morning’s premarket trading, AAPL is looking like it will drop back down today a point or two – so, let’s stick with the recommendation I posted on Friday.
If AAPL continues to jump up and down by a point or two – let’s grab in while it’s down, remember to use a limit order and immediately put in a GTC sell order, and let uncertain investors create win after win for us. We’ll sell it on the next bounce up. So, same choice as Friday, same article as Friday too. I could say that AAPL has been in the news, but it’s more like AAPL has been the news in the last couple of days – and from all that, one might get the impression that they have real people working there and that they can screw up just a bit. As it turns out, they are not completely infallible. I found this article interesting, here’s the link:http://www.forbes.com/sites/markrogowsky/2014/09/26/a-tale-of-two-apples/?partner=yahootix My take away is this – read the article, but don’t stop until you get to the end, because software problems will be fixed. Security will be made better, and bending phones will be covered by warranty and fixed or protected by hard cases. But, 10 million phones sold in a weekend will be still on the income statement. Most of these problems will go away quickly and we’ll be left with the sales, and the stock will go back up. Here are the numbers – revenue of $178.14 billion; a forward P/E of 13.99; operating cash flow of $56.37 billion; total cash on hand of $37.93 billion; and debt of $31.04. However, once again please check out the stock chart before you buy. With the Nails strategy, it is more typical for me to pick stocks that not this close to the 52-week high. But, with last week’s drop in price of close to five points, I feel another quick bounce coming for a nice DITM calls win. It makes me think of Tigger (from Winnie the Pooh), with all the nice bouncing, which for us – can be fun, fun, fun, fun, fun. And, like Tigger – Apple might just be the only one we can bounce with so close to the top. Remember, once filled – please remember to place a GTC sell order a dollar higher than the purchase price, as this will automatically capture what we set out to achieve; a really quick $1,000 dollar profit. Remember: Life’s a Journey, Enjoy the ride. (At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stock mentioned.) |
2014-09-26 – A Two-fer with GLW & AAPL |
Today I am going to present you with two choices by revisiting Corning Incorporated (GLW), as it now presents us with a very nice choice and Apple, Inc. (AAPL) which led the nose dive in yesterday’s stock market plunge. One choice will be cheap, one not so much. There were lots of good choices this morning, most were on the higher end when it comes to share price where a percentage drop means larger dollar amounts.
Since I can’t pick them all – I’m going with two, to present the differences between stocks that trade around $20 and those that trade around $100. For GLW: Corning has been around since 1851 and continues to be the world’s largest specialty glass and ceramics manufacturer creating LCD display screens used in TV’s and video displays, laptops, gaming devices and cell phones. For the telecommunications industry they make optical fiber and cable. They make ceramic substrates that are used to filter pollutants in autos. And, they make virtually all glass lab-ware including beakers, test tubes and Petri dishes. Corning has an interesting history. The company helped Thomas Edison create a commercial success with the light bulb. And although we are more familiar with the kitchen names Corning Ware and Pyrex, these products were once part of Corning, but were sold off in 1997 to World Kitchens LLC so the company could focus on high-technology applications. They have made the windows for the Space Shuttle and other NASA applications and make nose cones for rockets and missiles, which is a long way from their beginnings which started with the manufacture of railroad lantern glass. GLW closed yesterday at $19.81 and has a slight undervalued forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.30, return on equity of 6.00%, revenue of $8.79 billion, operating cash flow of $4.26 billion which is a nice healthy percentage of income. Debt is manageable at $3.70 billion as they have more than enough cash on hand to pay all the bills, with cash on hand at about $5.89 billion. For AAPL: As before, this morning, I’m ignoring all the weird option choices available for AAPL and going with the 2016 $80 option. It’s pricey but effective. I could say that AAPL has been in the news, but it’s more like AAPL has been the news in the last couple of days – and from all that, one might get the impression that they have real people working there and that they can screw up just a bit. They are not completely infallible. I found this article interesting, here’s the link:http://www.forbes.com/sites/markrogowsky/2014/09/26/a-tale-of-two-apples/?partner=yahootix My take away is this – read the article, but don’t stop until you get to the end, because software problems will be fixed. Security will be made better, and bending phones will be covered by warranty and fixed or protected by hard cases. But, 10 million phones sold in a weekend will be still on the income statement. Most of these problems will go away quickly and we’ll be left with the sales, and the stock will go back up. Here are the numbers – revenue of $178.14 billion; a forward P/E of 13.59; operating cash flow of $56.37 billion; total cash on hand of $37.93 billion; and debt of $31.04. It will be interesting how those numbers change once earnings post next month. However, once again please check out the stock chart before you buy. With the Nails strategy, it is more typical for me to pick stocks that not this close to the 52-week high. But, with last week’s drop in price of close to five points, I feel another quick bounce coming for a nice DITM calls win. It makes me think of Tigger (from Winnie the Pooh), with all the nice bouncing, which for us – can be fun, fun, fun, fun, fun. And, like Tigger – Apple might just be the only one we can bounce with so close to the top. Remember, once filled – please remember to place a GTC sell order a dollar higher than the purchase price, as this will automatically capture what we set out to achieve; a really quick $1,000 dollar profit. Remember: Life’s a Journey, Enjoy the ride. (At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stock mentioned.) |
2014-09-24 – Swim the Wide Moat of INTC |
Today’s pick: Intel Corporation (INTC).
We’ve have an excellent success rate with INTC using the Nails strategy. And, once again it’s looking like a pretty nice buy opportunity. Share price has dropped down like everything else, and in looking at the moving averages I am seeing plenty of continued upside potential across the board. With upside potential, there is an opportunity to buy and get another INTC win. Here at Nails we have stated many times – Intel continues to be one of the most dominant companies in the world. It defines the term “wide moat,” meaning Intel has very few competitive disadvantages. They control the playing field with an 80% market share and this makes them one of the single best stocks in the world. And they will continue to perform. INTC closed trading yesterday at $34.42, which is not down much from the 52-week high of $35.56 posted a few days ago, so if you think I’m playing it too close to the high, then go ahead and sit it out. However the moving averages are still on the rise and that’s always a good sign. Let’s look to the numbers: Revenue: 53.91 billion, Forward P/E: 14.90, Return on Equity: 18.22%, Cash: 17.41 billion, Debt: 13.39 billion, and Operating Cash Flow: 20.72 billion. Earnings will post in about three weeks, far enough out not to worry that it’s too close to buy, but close enough that the initial rebuy price posted will be conservative enough to be in line with any surprising news that drives the price down. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! Note: I held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-09-22 – Buy It Now with EBAY |
For this morning’s pick opportunity knocks once again with eBay Inc. (EBAY). The choppiness of the stock chart makes it a great Nails choice for really quick results. We like quick.
The online auction house has been around since 1995 and has close to 32,000 full timers and does more than just allow you to clean out your garage or the contents of your sock drawer. It’s a household name and you can find just about anything your heart desires on eBay and of course, in the process, they make their cut, but they also own PayPal, so they get another cut there. That results in about $17.05 billion in revenue annually. I like eBay this morning for the stock chart. Share price sits again between the high and the low when looking at the yearly chart. In the last year, the share price has moved between $48.06 and 59.70, and with precision-like regularity it has gone up and down several times. Here are the stats to look at: Revenue comes in as noted above at $17.05 billion, cash in the bank sits at $7.37 billion and operational cash flow is measured to be $5.72 billion with total debt at $5.32 billion. The forward P/E ratio sits at 15.50 and share price has dipped again for some very nice upside potential. Once again, I would have liked to go with the January 2015 $50’s but the premium was way too high, so I’ve gone deeper in the money to lower the premium and provide additional intrinsic value to the recommendation. Although, even taking it deeper in-the-money, the premium for EBAY is still high for the Nails formula. In crunching the average premium over the last three months, it’s been pretty consistent. High, but consistent. Please remember to immediately place a good-till-cancel (GTC) sell order $1.00 higher than the fill price in order to grab a $1,000 victory as soon as possible. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned. |
2014-09-19 – Looking for Discounts with WMT |
Today we will look to once again to add Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) to the portfolio. The world’s largest retailer has the distinction of being the world’s largest, because they have successfully combined savings with a wide selection. The stock, along with several others, has pulled back from the recent high enough to trigger the buy button.
Wal-Mart is a Major League company and they know how to make that cash register ring 24-7 with revenues of $480.48 billion. Yes, that’s right, with all the numbers listed out it reads $480,480,000,000.00 in sales per year. That is a lot of zeros and a figure that is closing in on half a trillion dollars and in doing the math for that, it comes out to $1.31 billion per day; $54.8 million per hour; $914.1 thousand per minute; and $15,236 in sales per second. The register rings every day, 24 hours per day. Can you imagine, truly imagine almost a million dollars in revenue a minute? The company generates $23.91 billion in operating cash flow, have $6.18 billion in the bank with a hefty debt load of $54.21 billion. Although the debt is large in comparison to cash, this is long term debt, in the stores, the buildings and the land they sit on. You can’t own that much real estate without owing a few mortgage payments and that averages out to about $5.3 million per store. When you consider the size and value of each store, considering only the real estate, it’s not a huge debt to equity position to have. The company has a return-on-equity (ROE) of 20.27% which is good considering their profit margins are small. Forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is currently at 13.93. If the order is filled, don’t forget to place a good-till-cancel (GTC) sell order $1.00 higher than the fill price in order to grab a $1,000 victory as soon as possible. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride!
At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned. |
2014-09-17 – Fix it Up with HD |
Today I’m taking a look again at Home Depot, Inc. (HD). When we find the stocks we like, we revisit them again and again when the timing looks right and with the latest credit card hacking hitting HD, the stock has taken a nice dip.
Founded in 1978, The Home Depot, Inc. is the world’s largest home improvement specialty retailer with current revenue at $79.38 billion and operating cash flow of $7.50 billion. The Home Depot has 2,263 retail stores in the United States, Canada, Mexico and China and employs about 365,000 full timers. They are based in Atlanta, Georgia. I’m sure that each of us has been to Home Depot many, many times. The forward P/E is 17.33 and the PEG ratio is 1.21, both a teeny bit higher than ideal to indicate perfect timing. Total debt is $16.74 billion with cash in the bank at $4.22 billion, numbers that would make me happier if reversed, but debt is not a bad thing if managed well and operating cash flow is healthy. Operating cash flow for HD is $8.02 billion, which isn’t bad. HD’s stock chart is showing upside potential and the premium for the $80’s are a bit high and those for the $75’s are a bit more in line with the Nails formula. For the recommendation, I’m going with the $75’s but if you want to buy the $80’s don’t pay more than $13.30 for them. The higher the share price, the more you can expect in premium. For a stock currently close to $80.00 in share price, we can expect to pay between $2.00 to $4.00 over the stock/strike spread. It has been consistently posting in this area, so we should be good at that price. If your order is filled, remember to set a good-till-cancel (GTC) sell order at $1.00 above the purchase price for a lock quick win. Remember: Life’s a Journey, Enjoy the ride. (At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stock mentioned.) |
2014-09-15 – Personal Fuel with SBUX |
On Friday Lenny called me early and helped with the morning’s selection, which made the morning fly, but it also meant that updates to the portfolio were late in coming. Everything is now updated and we good news for everyone with a win with Bank of America (BAC), one of the last of the open positions that will expire in January 2015. Now we only have PFE & GE to worry about.
For today’s pick, I’ll take a Grande Mocha Frappuccino with extra caramel sauce blended in and revenue is at $16.08 billion; a forward P/E rations that’s a little high at 23.88; and brand recognition so strong, it will be unnecessary to describe their products and services. I don’t think you can go a day without seeing at least one Starbucks cup in someone’s hand, unless you stay at home. I’d invite you to go anywhere where people congregate, and you will find at least one java junkie with a cup in hand showing off the green mermaid logo, most likely more. Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) provides liquid energy worldwide. Their coffees, espressos, various food items and accessories can be found on nearly every U.S. street corner. The sugar content of most of their drinks rival the amounts found in candy bars, so avoid type II diabetes and limit their intake. Buy the options, but show restraint when deciding between a grande and a venti (does anyone ever buy a tall?). They operate retail stores primarily in the United States, Canada, and the UK, as expected. But they can also be found in Thailand, Australia, Germany, China, Singapore, Puerto Rico, Chile, and Ireland, bringing the total of company operated stores to approximately 10,194, and if I had to guess, I’d say that if I visited any one of them, there would be a predictable line of customers too, especially in the morning when caffeine is needed to get the day going. However, the stock has been coming back from the April/May low, peaked in July and dropped a bit more last week. The stock chart is looking good for timing. All those lines are crossing and heading the right direction for another nice Nails win. Starbucks was founded in 1985, employs over 182,000 and is based in Seattle, Washington. Please remember to immediately place a good-till-cancel (GTC) sell order $1.00 higher than the fill price in order to grab a $1,000 victory as soon as possible. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned. |
2014-09-12 – Fuel Up with VLO |
This morning Lenny called me at 5:00 am, he must have been up all night – just waiting for me to get up. He helped in choosing today’s pick helped me write this morning’s column by writing the introduction and leaving the technical parts to me, we talked for over an hour and didn’t always stick to stock picking, making me a bit tardy in posting. It’s always good to start the day laughing and Lenny is always good for that.
He wrote: Throughout my baseball career, I put my heart and soul into the game so that I would be a winning player. I wouldn’t accept any less of myself, and even now I put everything I’ve got into what I’m doing. I go full speed all the time. More than anything, I tried to be smart by knowing my opponents and knowing the game inside and out. To succeed, you have to know the ground rules and then try to get every possible advantage within those rules. A lot of those advantages can come from simply doing your homework In past columns, I have talked about the benefits of picking DITM option calls and how they give you exposure to the best stocks at a fraction of their trading prices. My process is simple. I keep my eye on a universe of stocks that I follow closely. This includes companies from all different sectors. But in a market like this, I’m looking at specific industries that I believe will do well over the coming year. In recent months, those industries include oil-related services which leads us to today’s pick. This morning I am going with Valero Energy Corporation (VLO). Valero, the largest independent oil refiner in the country is a relatively small company as compared to the big guns in the oil industry and with gas prices so high at the pump – especially here in Southern California – it’s especially nice when I can score with an oil company and get a little back. VLO operates through three segments: Refining, Retail, and Ethanol. Valero service stations in Southern California are starting to be more prevalent and they have upped the image and are starting to look less “no frills” to more mainstream gas station. In looking at the stock chart, it is a good time to make a purchase of VLO options. The stock chart is showing a quick drop from the most recent high and the share price at a nice support level. VLO looks poised to head back up again. VLO revenue comes in at $139.14 billion; Forward P/E is 8.06 and the PEG Ratio is 1.15; Return on Equity is 16.05%; total cash is $3.48 billion; operating cash flow is $4.13 billion and debt is manageable at $6.38 billion. Timing looks good for another solid Nails play. Please remember to lock in a win by setting a good-till-cancelled (GTC) selling order once a position is filled. Remember: Life is a Journey; enjoy the ride!
Note: I held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-09-10 – Drive Off with a new Ford |
Nothing stirs up nostalgic memories like that of your fist car; cruising around on a warm summer day, with friends piled in, the wind rushing through the open windows or with the top down, and the radio cranked up.
My first car was a Mustang, although technically it was my brother’s car. But since he was serving in the Air Force overseas and I got to drive around in his Mustang for two years before he returned and claimed his car back. I loved that car. It didn’t just have power steering and power brakes, it had power gas. No car I’ve bought since has had quite the umph in the accelerator. This morning Ford’s stock chart is looking like there might be some power gas in the future with plenty of upside potential. The chart is looking good, the stats are looking good, and the option price is excellent. All of this pointing toward a quick Nails win at a very good price. On Wednesday, I went with AAPL and those that followed the pick were rewarded with a really quick one day win, but the premium for playing with AAPL options was high. Now with Ford, the options come with very little premium. The stock price is low enough that the stock price less the strike price is nearly right at the recommendation and where the options are trading. As you all know, Ford Motor Company designs, manufactures, and finances passenger cars and light trucks. Measured by revenue, Ford is the world’s third-largest auto manufacturer, behind Toyota and General Motors. Total annual revenue is about $146.63 billion; debt is around $119.01 billion which is scary high but consistent. Total cash in the bank is around $25.81 billion and operating cash flow totals $11.12 billion. The forward P/E ratio is posting 8.66 and return on equity is solid at 28.30%. Ford employs about 181,000 people worldwide and is headquartered in Dearborn Michigan. “Quality means doing it right when no one is looking.” – Henry Ford Please remember to immediately set up a GTC sell order $1.00 higher to cash out a cool $1000 gain. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! Note: Dykstra held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-09-08 – AAPL Picking |
Today I am looking to take another bite out of Apple, Inc. (AAPL) and add it to the portfolio for the fourth time. AAPL has been a very tasty choice and looks ripe for the picking once again.
As before, the available options after the stock split have some interesting amounts to choose from but are now looking just as affordable as your regular $95-100 stock option. The stock looks like it is going to continue to perform for us. All the trending lines are continuing the steady climb up. Over the last couple of days share price has come down a bit, providing us just the room at the top for another quick win. The options I’m recommending are expensive. I promise I’ll stop picking AAPL if the option prices top $25.00. That’s about the limit I’d be willing to go for a recommendation. I did consider going with the Jan 2016 $90.00’s but, they should be a bit less expensive. As it is, I’m padding Lenny’s formula of stock price plus a buck less the strike price equaling the recommendation. In this case our premium is over four dollars. It has been consistently that high for this option, and going to the 90’s would mean a premium of close to $8.00. That’s quite a bit extra on top. AAPL is worth a bit extra, just not that much. AAPL headquartered in Cupertino, California with about 80,000 full-time employees. The company manufactures, and markets mobile communication and media devices, personal computers, and portable digital music players worldwide in addition to software and music, books and other media. If you can think it up, there’s an app for that and you can buy it in the app store. The experience when you buy Apple and open the packaging is bar none. They provide the best un-wrap experience of any product on the market. I’ve always been an advocate of presentation and Apple knows how to offer up the very best in presentation. Here are the numbers – revenue of $178.14 billion; a forward P/E of 14.04; operating cash flow of $56.37 billion; total cash on hand of $37.93 billion; and debt of $31.04 (has increased quite a bit over last quarters numbers), making AAPL a very nice choice even with the sharp increase to liabilities. I’d say the increase is the financing and ordering of materials for the iPhone6 launch. However, once again please check out the stock chart before you buy. With the Nails strategy, it is more typical for me to pick stocks that not this close to the 52-week high. But, with last week’s drop in price of close to five points, I feel another quick bounce coming for a nice DITM calls win. It makes me think of Tigger (from Winnie the Pooh), with all the nice bouncing, which for us – can be fun, fun, fun, fun, fun. And, like Tigger – Apple might just be the only one we can bounce with so close to the top. Remember, once filled – please remember to place a GTC sell order a dollar higher than the purchase price, as this will automatically capture what we set out to achieve; a really quick $1,000 dollar profit. Remember: Life’s a journey, enjoy the ride! At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stock mentioned. |
2014-09-05 – Information Storage is Key with EMC |
First off, I want to thank everyone for the wonderful feedback regarding Wednesday’s column. Every now and then emails and letters will sit in front of me and make me wonder if I am doing the best job I could. Both Lenny and I are of the impression that no matter how good you’re doing – there always room for improvement and we should constantly seek ways of getting better.
The overall consensus is that most everyone is happy with the Nails strategy and would not want to see any epic changes. Small improvements that really don’t change the format of the system will be taken under advisement and if I can add them in or engineer the site to make them work – I will. The most requested item to improve the site was to add was more chapters to the tutorial and to include any portfolio size lessons within that document. When I started writing the tutorial, I full expected to post a new chapter each month until complete – however, life gets in the way of best laid plans and it sits there with only two chapters. But, I am listening and will take your advice to heart. Thanks again for all the wonderful feedback. It is very gratifying to know your work is valued. In the meantime… here is today’s pick. Once again the pick is IT giant EMC Corp. (EMC). EMC is a monster company that has been providing information storage solutions for 30+ years. They provide IT solutions to every industry and to nearly every country around the globe. If you’ve got a computer network, chances are good EMC was or is involved. Their company tag line is: “where information lives,” and they aren’t kidding. Once again, I like the stock chart this morning and the slow stochastic chart is on target too for timing a buy. In looking at the numbers I see a forward P/E of 13.45, which is a good indicator that the stock is trading at a good price. Anything under 15 is considered to be undervalued, and that is the place we want our stocks to be priced. When they are undervalued, that’s the best time to buy. Revenue for the company is close to $23.58 billion, total cash on hand is $7.65 billion and debt is very reasonable at $5.49 billion. The company scores big for keeping debt ratios manageable and operating cash flow of $6.57 billion is also very healthy. EMC’s stock chart is showing a drop in share price over the last couple weeks. I see this as a clear opportunity to put more cash in the bank for the Nails strategy. I’m going with the $25’s this morning, but normally I’d go a little bit deeper to cover the 52-week low. I wasn’t happy with the prices for the lower priced options. Please remember to immediately set up a GTC sell order $1.00 higher to cash out a cool $1000 gain. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! Note: Dykstra held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-09-03 – Hitting Another Run with QCOM |
Some subscriber mail has come across my desk recently requesting that I switch the focus on the Nails strategy to one of money management with a specific sized portfolio in mind. This would help those who do not have enough for the larger positions and make the strategy more real to those that have a specific amount of ammo to bring to the party.
I’ve been thinking about it and feel that such a plan could work, but before anything is switched around, I will need feedback from everyone. Here are my thoughts. I too have had different portfolio sizes to work with since Lenny taught me the strategy and I have altered my purchases when my nut was small; then stretched my legs as it grew. But, I have never imparted exactly how to do that to you. So I guess my question is – do you want to know how to do that? With specific instructions? Would you like to see what the strategy would be for your portfolio size? Before I change anything – I do want to hear from you first. No need to blow up the format of the Nails Strategy if most everyone is happy with the picks as they are. You know the motto of being able to please most of the people most of the time, and never being able to please all the people all the time. I know I can’t please all the people, all the time – but, I do like to try. Let me know your thoughts. Let me know what would make the Nails Strategy perfect for you and your portfolio. Then we’ll sort through the mail and see what we can come up with. While you think about that – let’s add Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) to the Nails open portfolio. QCOM has performed quite nicely for the Nails strategy, scoring a lot of quick wins for us. The goal of the Nails strategy is to get in and get out with a quick win as often as possible. QUALCOMM Incorporated makes digital telecommunications products. The company develops and supplies integrated circuits and system software for voice and data communications, networking, application processing, multimedia, and global positioning systems. QCOM is headquartered in San Diego, California and employs about 31,000. QCOM is a monster company with revenue of $26.28 billion, debt at only $11.0 million as compared to total cash of $18.15 billion and operating cash flow of $9.78 billion making for a very solid balance sheet with a debt ratio that is truly enviable. The company’s forward P/E ratio is a modest 13.50 with a PEG Ratio of 0.94 and a return on equity of 18.7%. About 79.60% of the stock is held by institutional traders. All in all, the stats tell me this continues to make a nice choice and I am seeing upside potential with QCOM yet again. As many times as this stock looks good to buy – it will be a top recommendation as we have been able to count on it over and over again. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned. |
2014-08-29 – Portfolio Review & HAL |
Today is review day, as Monday is Labor Day and to make up for my error on Monday, I’m providing a pick as well. Please be sure to note the changes to the GTC’s of our 2015 open positions.
Today’s choice is global monster Halliburton Company (HAL). The company is coming down off the most recent high, but the long term trend is still moving up. Yesterday Hal dropped a point and looks to be heading down even more this morning. I have placed the recommendation on the anticipated lower price I am seeing in pre-market trading. Here are the stats to take note of: Forward P/E is 12.59; Return on Equity is 19.20%; Revenue continues to be strong at $30.51 billion annually. Debt is very manageable at $7.82 billion with operating cash flow coming in at $5.05 billion and total cash in the bank at $2.48 billion. Timing is good for a buy, not perfect – but good. If you’re not feeling the love and the strategy gets a buy – just wait for the first rebuy, and buy it then, because that’s when the timing will be even better. Also remember, if the order fills today, set a GTC sell order at $1.00 than your purchase price to take the cash as soon as our target sell price is reached and head to the bank. Remember: Life’s a Journey, Enjoy the ride. (At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stock mentioned.) *~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~* Now to our monthly review of all current open positions. Please make note of the new rebuy recommendations and new GTC sell orders for ALL open positions that will expire in January 2015. AT&T (T) – was just added to the open portfolio on Wednesday. It has been posted. Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO), International Paper (IP), Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) and Verizon Communications (VZ) are all recent additions to the open portfolio and no changes are needed at this time. Deere & Company (DE) was added to the open portfolio on July 16th and is the only recent pick left still open that was in last month’s review other than our 2015 positions that follow. We currently have 50 contracts with an average price of $10.10 and the options are going for $8.20. Now looks like a good time to pick up more. I’m setting the rebuy at $84.00 and the stock price is currently lower, so pick up more of these if you can this morning. Pfizer Inc. (PFE) – was added to the portfolio on March 17th. We currently have 60 contracts with an average price of $3.20 and the options are currently going for $2.77. The rebuy is OK for now, but PFE looks to be peaking – before we’d like it to be. I’m lowering the GTC sell price for PFE and ALL the 2015 options we currently hold. Bank of America (BAC) – has been on the open portfolio list since February 12, 2014. We still have 30 contracts with an average price of $4.00 and they are currently listed at $4.05 which continues to move too slowly for a nice win. The GTC selling price has been adjusted earlier this month to clear out of BAC at $4.50 and it came really close then dropped down. The goal with the 2015 contracts would be to dump them for a small profit or even break even – as the cash held in these older positions are not helping us when newer positions are clearing out much faster. We need to move these out and put our money in newer choices. General Electric (GE) – has been on the scorecard since January 10th. Here the rebuy price has been adjusted up to $25.00. We have 50 contracts with an average price of $4.50 and the current price for the options is $4.05 and at the top. Please make note of the new GTC selling recommendations for ALL the 2015 open positions. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride!
At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned. |
2014-08-27 – Switch to AT&T – for DITM Calls |
On Monday – I posted an error with the option prices recommended for Starbucks (SBUX), so it was a wasted day. I do apologize for that. A few subscribers alerted me of my mistake, but by the time I was able to confirm things, it was too late to send out a modified alert. I promise to do better going forward, and the next time the market looks good for a double-play – I’ll post two picks instead of one. However, it’s slim pickings out there this morning, so today will not be that day.
Today I am looking to add AT&T, Inc. (T) to the portfolio. The timing for AT&T looks good and the option price is very affordable. AT&T is headquartered in Dallas, Texas and is the largest US telecommunications services provider with over 248,000 full-time employees. The company’s wire-line business provides local telephone, long-distance, and Internet access services to residential and business customers. The company’s wireless service comes in second, after Verizon and has currently dropped a couple points and looks poised to come back up. The numbers aren’t bad – revenue of $130.37 billion; a forward P/E of 12.68; operating cash flow of $33.95 billion; total cash on hand of $11.30 billion; making T a very solid play, even with debt at a whopping $84.56 billion. However, it is the chart for the stock that has me posting the pick today, which tells me timing looks good for AT&T to trend upward for a change of pace. The stock is trading down a few points from 52-week high and overall trending looks good. This feels like a quick win for Lenny’s DITM calls strategy. Remember, once filled – please remember to place a GTC sell order a dollar higher than the purchase price, as this will automatically capture what we set out to achieve; a really quick $1,000 dollar profit. Remember: Life’s a journey, enjoy the ride!
(AT THE TIME OF PUBLICATION, DYKSTRA HAD NO POSITIONS IN THE STOCK MENTIONED.) |
2014-08-25 – For All the Java Junkies – Drink up SBUX |
When choosing a company to trade using Lenny’s DITM calls strategy, many factors are considered. I look for quality companies that provide strong financials; a healthy income with steady growth and sector strength; a return on equity greater than the company’s price to earnings ratio; a debt to equity ratio of less than one, or if circumstances warrant, less than 1.5, but the lower the ratio, the better; and lastly, plenty of cash.
While the number of top notch corporations that fit that part of the criteria is numerous, we then need to narrow our focus and find a stock that is also undervalued or oversold. To make this process easier, I have a list of companies have proven profitable in the past and/or those that have name or brand recognition. And lastly, the purchase price of the option when added to the strike price must fall into our prescribed rule of being no more than a dollar over the stock price, but adjusted at times for stocks that pull off a greater premium consistently. Those are the guidelines, and it’s not always possible to have all the stars align for each morning pick, but – we do try to come as close as we can. The result is a very healthy win ratio and happy subscribers. For today’s pick, I’ll take a Grande Mocha Frappuccino with extra caramel sauce blended in and revenue is at $16.08 billion; a forward P/E rations that’s a little high at 24.46; and brand recognition so strong, it will be unnecessary to describe their products and services. I don’t think you can go a day without seeing at least one Starbucks cup in someone’s hand, unless you stay at home. I’d invite you to go anywhere where people congregate, and you will find at least one java junkie with a cup in hand, most likely more. Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) provides liquid energy worldwide. Their coffees, espressos, various food items and accessories can be found on nearly every U.S. street corner. They operate retail stores primarily in the United States, Canada, and the UK, as expected. But they can also be found in Thailand, Australia, Germany, China, Singapore, Puerto Rico, Chile, and Ireland, bringing the total of company operated stores to approximately 10,194, and if I had to guess, I’d say that if I visited any one of them, there would be a predictable line of customers too. However, the stock has been coming back from the April/May low, peaked last month and looks to be starting back up once again. The stock chart is looking good for timing. All those lines are crossing and heading the right direction for another nice Nails win and the option price is really cheap, with no premium at all. For that reason, bid at recommendation – or lower. Starbucks was founded in 1985, employs over 182,000 and is based in Seattle, Washington. Please remember to immediately place a good-till-cancel (GTC) sell order $1.00 higher than the fill price in order to grab a $1,000 victory as soon as possible. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! |
2014-08-22 – Share the Network with CSCO |
Please note: I have adjusted the GTC selling target for BAC to $4.50. BAC share price is moving in the right direction, but those stocks with a share price is under $20 can struggle to move enough for a $1.00 target improvement on our option price before selling. With September and October approaching quickly – which would be when I’d consider rolling any 2015 open positions – it is better to get your cash out when you can. If you still have BAC and can make a profit – consider selling at $4.50 or sooner.
Today’s pick is Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO). Cisco provides a line of products for transporting data, voice, and video within buildings, across many platforms, and around the world. Its products are designed to transform how people connect, communicate and collaborate. Cisco Systems, Inc.’s products, which include primarily routers, switches, and products that the Company refers to as its technologies, are installed at enterprises, public institutions, telecommunications companies, commercial businesses and personal residences. They have been in business since 1984 and employ over 75,000 people. CSCO’s current price is at $24.89, down from the last month’s high of $26.08. The forward P/E ratio is 10.87, PEG ratio is 1.50, and return on equity is 13.56%. Revenue is $47.14 billion, of which they have $52.07 billion in cash (such a lovely number), and $12.33 billion in operating cash flow. The debt is quite manageable at $20.91 billion as compared to operating cash flow and the company has enough cash in the bank to pay off debt more than twice over, which is a very healthy cash position to be in. I sure wish I had enough liquid assets to pay off my house a couple times. And, institutional investors make up 74.10% of those that own the stock. Almost all the stock charts of our favorite Nails picks are moving into position for buying puts, but – CSCO’s chart is looking good for some upside potential and another quick DITM win. Please remember to set a GTC sell order at $1.00 higher than the purchase price once an order fills to lock in a win when the target sales price is reached. Always Remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned. |
2014-08-20 – Thunder & Lightning and IP |
This morning I got up to a thunderstorm right over my head or what seemed to be directly over the house. I pulled up the weather radar and the little storm is a finger of green and yellow extending about 10 miles across and about 60 miles long, with no other patches of rain anywhere close.
To ensure my computing safety, I unplugged the desktop from the wall and unplugged the laptop here from a power source so I don’t fry myself or my equipment should lightning cause any power surges. So now that I am safe from being zapped, the rain is just lovely. California is in a serious drought and any free water for things that turn green is a good thing. Today’s pick is once again paper and packaging company, International Paper Co. (IP). International Paper is a global paper and packaging company with manufacturing operations in more than 20 countries, including the United States, Europe, Latin America and Asia, and they operate 18 pulp, paper and packaging mills, 94 converting and packaging plants, and five wood products facilities. With annual sales of about $26.20 billion, they employ nearly 70,000 people worldwide, and they have a long-standing policy of using no wood from endangered forests. They make the products that are essential for today, while sustaining millions of acres of forest for the needs of future generations; as they are the nation’s largest private landowner and seedling grower, planting more than 500 million seedlings a year. Here are the metrics to take note of: Forward P/E – 11.38; Return on Equity – 11.89%; Revenue – $28.88 billion; total cash – $1.29 billion; operating cash flow – 2.75 billion; debt $12.0 billion (a little high, but consistent). In addition, quarterly earnings growth is down by 37.80% which would explain the choppiness of the stock chart. It is the stock chart I like this morning. IP seems to be taking big jumps up and down, and it’s currently down. Up looks like the next direction for the stock and there is still support for rebuys if the stock were to go down. All in all, it looks like a great choice for the Nails strategy. Please remember to post a GTC (good till cancelled) order at $1.00 higher than the purchase price to lock in a win. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride!
At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned. |
2014-08-18 – Pay at the Pump with XOM |
This morning the plan is to fill up with Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM). Exxon Mobil is considered one of the big guns in the energy sector, packing the largest cap rate and highest revenue and has basically the biggest numbers across the board. You can say they are not just a big gun, but the biggest gun in the sector.
With gas prices so high at the pump – especially here in Southern California – it’s especially nice when I can score with an oil company and can get a little back. XOM operates in the exploration, production and sales of crude oil, natural gas and petroleum products, with approximately 37,661 gross and 31,823 net wells around the world. The company was founded in 1870, so you can say they have a bit of experience. In looking at the stock chart, it is a good time to make a purchase of XOM options. I’m going with a very conservative option price this morning. The market looks like it may move up a bit today, so please note that I am taking into account a modest uptick in share prices to come up with the best option price. Let’s look at the numbers for XOM: revenue comes in at $397.13 billion; Forward P/E is 12.71; Return on Equity is 19.57%; total cash is $6.08 billion; operating cash flow is $48.94 billion and debt is very manageable compared to operating cash flow and income at $21.76 billion. Timing looks very good for another solid Nails play. Please remember to lock in a win by setting a good-till-cancelled (GTC) selling order once a position is filled. Remember: Life is a Journey; enjoy the ride!
Note: I held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-08-15 – Memory Serves Right with QCOM |
Once again the plan is to add Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) to the Nails open portfolio. QCOM has performed quite nicely for the Nails strategy, scoring a lot of quick wins for us. The goal of the Nails strategy is to get in and get out with a quick win as often as possible.
QUALCOMM Incorporated makes digital telecommunications products. The company develops and supplies integrated circuits and system software for voice and data communications, networking, application processing, multimedia, and global positioning systems. QCOM is headquartered in San Diego, California and employs about 31,000. QCOM is a monster company with revenue of $26.28 billion, debt at only $11.0 million as compared to total cash of $18.15 billion and operating cash flow of $9.78 billion making for a very solid balance sheet with a debt ratio that is truly enviable. The company’s forward P/E ratio is a modest 13.45 with a PEG Ratio of 0.94 and a return on equity of 18.7%. About 79.60% of the stock is held by institutional traders. All in all, the stats tell me this continues to make a nice choice and I am seeing upside potential with QCOM yet again. As many times as this stock looks good to buy – it will be a top recommendation as we have been able to count on it over and over again. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride!
At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned. |
2014-08-13 – Playing it Smart with INTC |
Let’s talk about diversification. Just about every investment guru will stress how important it is to keep your portfolio diversified, and yes – that’s true. But, here at Nails Investments, we’re not investing in the typical sense. We aren’t buying and holding – we’re producing recommendations that we believe will provide a quick turnaround for cash flow, not portfolio value. For that reason, sometimes there will be several good choices in a sector that I’ll lean towards.
I do have a tendency not to think about diversification when making the picks and will leave that part up to you. It is good to keep your own portfolio well rounded, but since we rarely keep anything longer than a few months, it’s not as important with the Nails strategy as it would be with a typical buy and hold strategy. With a buy and hold strategy – the value comes from the appreciation of the items held. With the Nails strategy, we look at our cash position and how to improve that. We don’t even count a win until it is converted to cash. Today’s pick: Intel Corporation (INTC). Now, both QCOM and TXN looked good too, and with my previous recommendations this past week – you can see, that I’m not worrying about presenting a diversified selection. I’m steering you where I see opportunity for cash. We’ve have an excellent success rate with INTC using the Nails strategy. And, once again it’s looking like a pretty nice buy opportunity. Share price has dropped down like everything else, and in looking at the moving averages I am seeing plenty of continued upside potential across the board. With upside potential, there is an opportunity to buy and get another INTC win and the options are going for a really good price too. Here at Nails we have stated many times – Intel continues to be one of the most dominant companies in the world. It defines the term “wide moat,” meaning Intel has very few competitive disadvantages. They control the playing field with an 80% market share and this makes them one of the single best stocks in the world. And they will continue to perform. INTC closed trading yesterday at $33.13, which is not down much from the 52-week high of $34.83 posted a couple of weeks ago, so if you think I’m playing it too close to the high, then go ahead and sit it out. However the moving averages are still on the rise and look to be expanding. That’s always a good sign. Let’s look to the numbers: Revenue: 53.91 billion, Forward P/E: 14.47, Return on Equity: 18.22%, Cash: 17.41 billion, Debt: 13.39 billion, and Operating Cash Flow: 20.72 billion. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride!
Note: I held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-08-11 – Make the Call with VZ |
Today I am looking to add Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) to the portfolio yet again. The timing for VZ looks good and the options are very affordable.
Verizon touts itself as America’s most reliable wireless network and the most advanced fiber-optic network. The company delivers integrated business solutions to customers in more than 150 countries, including all of the Fortune 500. A Dow 30 company, Verizon employs 177,800 full time employees. The company’s wire-line business provides local telephone, long-distance, and Internet access services to residential and business customers. I have Verizon FIOS and you can’t get a better consumer internet provider in the home without installing a T-1 line. Their HD TV FIOS service isn’t bad either and picture quality is excellent, unless you like the SiFi channel, for some reason that shows up all pixilated, (I have a feeling it’s not part of the bundle I’m paying for). However all in all, the numbers are still nice to look at – Verizon has revenue of $123.64 billion; a forward P/E of 12.58; operating cash flow of $36.47 billion; total cash on hand of $6.42 billion; making Verizon a very solid play, even with debt at a whopping $110.04 billion. The chart for the stock tells me timing is good for another DITM calls victory dance and the recent pull back across the board really hit VZ hard as they dropped several points so far this month. This feels like another win for Lenny’s DITM calls strategy. Remember, once filled – please remember to place a GTC sell order a dollar higher than the purchase price, as this will automatically capture what we set out to achieve; a really quick $1,000 dollar profit. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride!
Note: Dykstra held no positions in any of the stocks mention in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-08-08 – LKD News and MSFT |
Recently, Lenny has been back on the radio and the focus of several news stories about our favorite subject NAILS INVESTMENTS. So far, the piece in the New York Times was the best of those posting as the reporter spent a bit of time with both Lenny and I on the phone. It has brought some longtime subscribers back into the fold who had drifted away here and there. And, we are glad to add several new members to the Nails Team. Welcome!
This morning’s choice is Microsoft Corporation (MSFT). MSFT share price been going up since last September. It’s been moving very choppily, and with the most recent drop we have a very nice Nails opportunity. I’m not a big fan of Windows 8, but Windows 9 should be an improvement. MSFT seems to miss the boat with every other operating system release. Thankfully, I am not in the market for a new computer. My current configuration with MS7 works nicely and they will really have to fix things before I jump in again. Apart from my personal preference with the current OS, the company remains one of the strongest out there, period. You can let the numbers be your guide. MSFT has a Forward P/E ratio of 13.51; revenue remains very nice at $86.83 billion; cash in the bank at $84.94 billion (which is a lovely number); and, debt of only $23.22 billion in comparison with operating cash flow of over $32.23 billion which is excellent in anyone’s book. I wish my personal balance sheet looked that nice, even proportionally. Return on Equity is a strong at 26.17%. Last week, MSFT reported earnings so we don’t need to worry about a surprise, the news is out. I like the stock chart for MSFT, as there is just enough of a pull back that we can jump in and score a win without the stock needing to recover fully from the recent market pull back. Although, this is one of those weeks where you probably could though a dart at all our stocks in the Nails basket and come up with one that is showing potential for a bounce. The last trade on this option was $11.14, so the usual recommendation would have been for $11.20 going on yesterdays close. However, this morning it looks like the price may be quite a bit more, so I have adjusted the recommendation up just a bit to account for pre-market trading. If your order is filled, don’t forget to set a good-till-cancel (GTC) sell order $1.00 above the purchase price to lock in a win. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride!
Note: Dykstra held no positions in any of the stocks mention in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-08-06 – Go Big with TXN |
There were quite a few really good choices this morning as share price has tanked across the board. Just about every stock I looked at has a stock chart that looks good for a buy using the Nails strategy. It’s like shopping in a candy store and everything looks and smells fabulous. With the market going down hill fast, we need to make a choice that has proven itself when the market becomes challenging for a bullish strategy. We don’t want to put ourselves in a position of catching the falling knife.
Let’s get right to today’s pick: Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN), creators of the first computer using integrated circuits and the first handheld calculator. I think my dad bought one of those first models, back in 1972, as the first handheld calculator in our home was a TI, back when I was in fifth grade. It was a bit smaller than what your average desktop adding machine/calculator is now. It was a brick at about 5”x9”x2” and not the lightest of gizmos. The first real desktop computer in our home was also a TI which came home with my brother in 1983 or so. The computer came with a HUGE 5MB hard drive and could be programmed using basic programming language and the big game to play was Zork, which you can download on your phone now. That type of game is now called interactive fiction as there were no graphics. You moved about the Zork world with visuals you supplied yourself by reading the descriptions that were written out. As for gaming standards – it would be very low end for your phone. We loved it. TXN has an excellent track record here at Nails and one of my personal favorites. TI’s vision for new products is to help create self-driving cars for and controls for home appliances linked to your cells phones. In the future – TI and I both seem to think that our world will soon be condensed into what can be programmed into a phone app or how you can gain access to their new DLP technology for projectors using a wide array of platforms, including again – smart phones, tablets and laptops. From previous columns about the company, you will know that Texas Instruments is a world leader in digital signal processing and analog technologies. With about 32,000 employees worldwide, they have a rock solid balance sheet and have proven to be winners for us here at Nails time and time again. Revenue comes in at $12.55 billion and the company’s forward P/E ratio is routinely a bit on the high side at 16.78 and return on equity posts at 21.45%. TXN manufactures a whole host of products, from audio, video and imaging — to medical, industrial and military products and applications. This company is all about cash management and that is a very healthy way to run a business. Debt doesn’t have to be bad, but if you can keep your cash in the bank and generate continued organic company growth – you are certainly doing something right. Although in 2012, TXN added a bit of long term financing to its balance sheet– adding debt by financing the purchase of National Semiconductor. And it is through this purchase of National Semiconductor that supplies Apple components which has been helping TXN’s share price for a while. They have cash in the bank totaling $2.80 billion, debt of $4.65 billion and operating cash flow of $3.59 billion. Looking to the chart, we see Texas Instruments has been steadily climbing since mid-October of 2012 and currently sits in the mid $40’s. I am seeing support at several levels and room at the top after our most recent pull back, so we wouldn’t need to break resistance to see a win. We don’t need much of a spread for a good DITM opportunity, so today offers us a good opportunity for a buy. Please remember it is important to set a good-till-cancel (GTC) sell order $1.00 above the purchase price to lock in a win, should your order fill. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride!
Note: I held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-08-04 – Take A Bite Out of AAPL |
Today I am looking to take another bite out of Apple, Inc. (AAPL) and add it to the portfolio for the third time. It looks as though I’m getting the knack for this one, as with our last venture into the AAPL options orchard, we scored on the same day.
As before, the available options after the stock split have some interesting amounts to choose from but are now looking just as affordable as your regular $95-100 stock option. The stock looks like it is going to continue to perform for us. All the trending lines are continuing the steady climb up. Over the last couple of days share price has come down a bit as a result of the overall market coming down, but share price was nicely resistant. And, that’s a good bullish sign and the dip in price is all we need for opportunity. Of the AAPL product lines, I have an iPhone, an iPad and a MacBook Pro. Lenny is also an AAPL aficionado and buys mostly Apple products for their ease of use and lack of virus issues. Those of us that use Apple love Apple and will continue to buy Apple. I’m looking forward to the new iPhone6 release so I can sell my iPhone5 for more than what I paid for it two years ago and be able to basically upgrade for free by selling the old one on eBay. When I got the 5, I sold the 4 and it must have been the quickest listing on eBay, as it was sold before I got the confirmation email of the listing. It was posted for 34 seconds. That’s how strong the Apple brand is, when consumer value remains high over time. It’s too bad my PC laptop hasn’t increased in value – I really could use a new one. AAPL headquartered in Cupertino, California with about 80,000 full-time employees. The company manufactures, and markets mobile communication and media devices, personal computers, and portable digital music players worldwide in addition to software and music, books and other media. If you can think it up, there’s an app for that and you can buy it in the app store. The experience when you buy Apple and open the packaging is bar none. They provide the best un-wrap experience of any product on the market. I’ve always been an advocate of presentation and Apple knows how to offer up the very best in presentation. Here are the numbers – revenue of $178.14 billion; a forward P/E of 13.67; operating cash flow of $56.37 billion; total cash on hand of $37.93 billion; and debt of $31.04 (has increased quite a bit over last quarters numbers), making AAPL a very nice choice even with the sharp increase to liabilities. I’d say the increase is the financing and ordering of materials for the iPhone6 launch. However, once again please check out the stock chart before you buy. With the Nails strategy, it is more typical for me to pick stocks that not this close to the 52-week high. But, with last week’s drop in price of over three points, I feel another quick bounce coming for a nice DITM calls win. It makes me think of Tigger (from Winnie the Pooh), with all the nice bouncing, which for us – can be fun, fun, fun, fun, fun. And, like Tigger – Apple might just be the only one we can bounce with so close to the top. Remember, once filled – please remember to place a GTC sell order a dollar higher than the purchase price, as this will automatically capture what we set out to achieve; a really quick $1,000 dollar profit. Remember: Life’s a journey, enjoy the ride.
(At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stock mentioned.) |
2014-08-01 – Portfolio Review |
Here is the review of all current open positions. Please make note of the new rebuy recommendations, there were several.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) was added to the open portfolio on Wednesday and is posted as a new position. Proctor & Gamble (PG) was added to the open portfolio on Monday, and hit a rebuy yesterday – so we now sit with 20 contracts pretty quickly with an average cost of $9.90 and with the options selling for $9.30. The rebuy has been adjusted as usual. The Walt Disney Company (DIS) was added to the open portfolio on July 23rd. We have 10 contracts at $19.20 and the options are up slightly and selling for $19.25. The current rebuy price of $82.80 is exactly where it needs to be. Deere & Company (DE) was added to the open portfolio on July 16th. The stock price hit a rebuy yesterday, so we now have 30 contracts with an average price of $10.80 and the options are going for $9.90 this morning. I have adjusted the rebuy price as usual. Mondelez International Inc. (MDLZ) was added to the open portfolio on June 16th. We have 10 contracts on the open portfolio with an average price of 6.50. The options for this position have been listed as a possible win (with no trading volume) since July 14th. I’ve gotten confirmation of a couple subscriber wins, but before I post it as such – I want to make sure no one is holding it. Please let me know. Yesterday, MDLZ would have posted a rebuy, but again – I am not seeing any trading volume on the option. Please let me know if you still hold this position. Pfizer Inc. (PFE) – was added to the portfolio on March 17th. If we count Wednesday’s rebuy – we now have 50 contracts with an average price of $3.40 and the options are currently going for $2.50. The rebuy has been adjusted for Wednesday’s hit on the rubuy price. Bank of America (BAC) – has been on the open portfolio list since February 12, 2014. We still have 20 contracts with an average price of $4.80 and they are currently listed at $3.40 which a bit down from last month. The rebuy price OK but if BAC continues to move too slowly, look for a change in the GTC selling price to get out of this one at a lower win price. It’s a bit early to adjust all the positions expiring in 2015, but I am still considering it with BAC as it’s not going anywhere quickly and it would be good to free up the cash. I’ve adjusted the rebuy up a bit. General Electric (GE) – has been on the scorecard since January 10th. Here the rebuy price has been adjusted for yesterday’s hit on the rebuy price. We now have 50 contracts with an average price of $4.50 and the current price for the options is $3.10 and dropping. We had a lot of change to the portfolio to post this morning, posting wins with VLO, HD, EBAY and possibly MDLZ. Rebuys that hit with PG, DE, PFE & GE. Please make sure to note all the changes. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride!
At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned. |
2014-07-30 – Healthy DITM WIN with JNJ |
Today I am reaching into our usual basket of stocks and selecting one that has the ability to provide a bounce and a quick win for the Nails DITM calls system, healthcare giant –Johnson & Johnson (JNJ).
JNJ has come down several points off the 52-week high, dropping in the last few weeks, giving us plenty of room for a predictable bounce if the market sees short term gains. If the price drops further – we will be on base with a good option price will have enough intrinsic and time value for a significant pull back in order to shore it up and make the strategy work. Johnson and Johnson presents us with a very solid, safe play and have rung the bell for us many times. They have been around since 1886 and provide us with such household names as over the counter pharmaceuticals as Tylenol, Sudifed, Zyrtec, Pepcid and Motrin IB, along with many others. They have a very wide moat. Johnson and Johnson stock closed yesterday at $101.96. Their financials are the definition of “healthy” with a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.08, revenue of $73.54 billion, total cash in the bank of $29.39 billion, and debt comfortably less than that at $17.29 billion. Quarterly earnings are up 12.90% which is closer to normal. Once an order is filled, it’s important to remember to immediately place a GTC sell order for $1.00 higher than your purchase price to automatically cash in a win for $1000 when the option price hits the sell mark. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride!
Note: Dykstra held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-07-28 – Shower Some Wins With PG |
NOTE: OptionsXpress is having technical problems displaying historical information on 07/24 & 07/25. As soon as they get it together, I will be able to post the wins I believe scored last week. If you scored a win with HD & EBAY, let me know. Thanks!
Timing is looking good for longtime Nails favorite – Proctor & Gamble Co. (PG), however buying tomorrow might be better as it might be trending down a little bit more before it starts to trend back up, but it’s a Monday column, not a Tuesday column. PG’s stock chart is good, so I will just grab my shopping cart and head down the cleaning aisles at the grocery store for another chance to score a quick win. Proctor & Gamble probably makes just about every household consumable supply you have. You can go to http://www.pg.com/en_US/brands/all_brands.shtml and check out how often a P&G product falls into your household shopping cart. They have 12 brands that have sales over a billion dollars each and 19 brands that top $500 million in sales each. That, my friends, is a lot of soap. Here is the alphabetical list of brands that top a billion in sales: Always, Ariel, Bounty, Braun, Charmin, Crest, Dawn, Downy, Duracell, Fusion, Gain, Gillette, Head & Shoulders, Iams, Mach 3, Olay, Oral B, Pampers, Pantene, Tide, and Wella. How many of these do you buy? Revenues are posted at $84.70 billion, $13.84 billion in operating cash flow and $9.75 billion in cash or equivalents on the balance sheet. Debt is more than twice operational cash flow, it comes in $36.36 billion, but the company is such a staple of consumable supplies and they’ve been around since 1837 and I don’t plan to stop showering or shaving or moisturizing anytime soon. The stock price is dropping “pre-earnings” which can signal the anticipation of a missed number coming up and be red flag to wait. If you want to wait, go ahead. If we get on board today with the recommendation, and you want to buy it later – you can do that by waiting for the first rebuy price to hit. If it hits, you could get on board and the Nails strategy will take you to the finish line. The company has a return-on-equity (ROE) of 16.01% and forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.64 is a bit higher than I like. But, once again – it’s the stock chart I like today that spells out opportunity for the Nails strategy. Please don’t forget to immediately place a good-till-cancel (GTC) sell order $1.00 higher than the fill price in order to grab a $1,000 victory as soon as we hit the target. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride!
At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned. |
2014-07-25 – Pump & Go With VLO |
This morning I am going with long time subscriber Carl’s tip and heading back to the well with Valero Energy Corporation (VLO).
If I ever need to take a vacation (outside my usual Xmas to New’s Years gig), I may have to hire Carl to make the picks for us. Although returning subscriber Jim had a good choice in YHOO, but the stock price jumped a bit too much yesterday, for it to make a good choice today. We’ll keep an eye on YHOO for better timing, but that’s good though for Jim if he bought it yesterday early enough to get in before the bounce. I do like it when subscribers reach out and provide tips on what has their attention, and I’ll always take a look and see if there is a Nails opportunity to share with everyone. Now back to VLO. Valero, the largest independent oil refiner in the country is a relatively small company as compared to the big guns in the oil industry and with gas prices so high at the pump – especially here in Southern California – it’s especially nice when I can score with an oil company and get a little back. VLO operates through three segments: Refining, Retail, and Ethanol. Valero service stations in Southern California are starting to be more prevalent and they have upped the image and are starting to look less “no frills” to more mainstream gas station. As a previous owner of a gas station and convenience store, Lenny and I (working for him at the time) have the experience to know that margins for the retail owner of a gas station are really small, so you have to have a first class convenience store to get and keep customers – or really competitive gas prices. Valero is doing both; their convenience stores are so much cleaner and well stocked over your average ARCO station, but the gas prices are comparable. That is a good combination for success, although my car seems to prefer more expensive gas when I fill the tank. It has no appreciation for economy and might actually smile when I stop at 76 over the usual Mobil or Shell choices. In looking at the stock chart, it is a good time to make a purchase of VLO options. The stock chart is showing a steep drop from the most recent high and the share price at a nice support level. VLO looks poised to head back up again. VLO revenue comes in at $138.26 billion; Forward P/E is 7.83 and the PEG Ratio is 0.78; Return on Equity is 15.00%; total cash is $3.65 billion; operating cash flow is $4.26 billion and debt is manageable at $6.56 billion. Timing looks good for another solid Nails play. Please remember to lock in a win by setting a good-till-cancelled (GTC) selling order once a position is filled. Remember: Life is a Journey; enjoy the ride!
Note: I held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-07-23 – Happiest Wins on Earth with DIS |
Today, I am going once again with a very well known brand that has provided happiness, joy and adventure for all ages since 1955, the Walt Disney Co. (DIS).
There is probably no other company you can invest in that is guaranteed to instill some appreciation for what they do from people of all ages. My granddaughter is already hooked at 18 months and actually sings “Let it Go” from Frozen as loud as she can. At 18 months most of what she is singing is ONLY “Let it Go” and the rest is just regular baby sounds, but – she loves that movie. Disney has had a small drop in share price over the last couple weeks. It’s ready to start heading back up, as overall trending is moving upward steadily. This is the opportunity we need to catch a quick win on the bounce. Plus there are several layers of support should the stock not bounce high enough right away. Current company stats are as follows: Revenue comes in at $47.10 billion; Forward P/E is 18.62 and the PEG Ratio is 1.26; Return on Equity is 16.42%; total cash is $4.08 billion; operating cash flow is $9.89 billion and debt is a little less than twice that at $15.60 billion. The forward P/E ratio is consistent for DIS, so although a bit high for what Nails likes to recommend, it’s consistent and not a red flag and is a bit higher than the last time we went with DIS. Earnings for DIS are scheduled for August 5th, so although we are getting close to earnings (less than two weeks from today), DIS is looking favorable for a quick bounce. It is the stock chart I like the best about DIS right now. It’s been steadily climbing and looks to continue the trend. Please remember that as soon as an order fills, it is always a good idea to place your limit order for the sell at a $1.00 higher than the purchase price, to lock in a win – as soon as it happens. Remember: Life is a Journey; enjoy the ride!
Note: Dykstra held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-07-21 – Get A Nice Healthy GLW |
For all you science and/or history buffs: Happy Moon Landing Anniversary!!
I do remember watching the Apollo 11 landing on the moon when I was just 7 years old. I remember lying on the floor with all my brothers and sisters watching our tiny TV screen and knowing that my grandpa (who worked for Rockwell) made custom tools that helped assemble the Lunar Lander and parts of the command module. Friday turned out to be a good day for the Nails strategy as our Apple Inc. (AAPL) pick was filled in the morning and had scored a Win before the bell later that afternoon. Quick wins are the name of the game and it’s always nice to score with positions that were just purchased. Wish I could do that daily! Please let me know if you were able to score a single day win with AAPL too! If you didn’t get a win, I’ll add AAPL to the scorecard and we’ll watch it for a bit and re-score the win to match your results (as long as it was purchased and sold at the recommended prices). Today I am going to revisit Corning (GLW), as it now presents us with a very nice choice. Corning has been around since 1851 and continues to be the world’s largest specialty glass and ceramics manufacturer creating LCD display screens used in TV’s and video displays, laptops, gaming devices and cell phones. For the telecommunications industry they make optical fiber and cable. They make ceramic substrates that are used to filter pollutants in autos. And, they make virtually all glass lab-ware including beakers, test tubes and Petri dishes. Corning has an interesting history. The company helped Thomas Edison create a commercial success with the light bulb. And although we are more familiar with the kitchen names Corning Ware and Pyrex, these products were once part of Corning, but were sold off in 1997 to World Kitchens LLC so the company could focus on high-technology applications. They have made the windows for the Space Shuttle and other NASA applications and make nose cones for rockets and missiles, which is a long way from their beginnings which started with the manufacture of railroad lantern glass. GLW closed Friday at $21.83 and has a slight undervalued forward price-to-earnings ratio of 13.07, return on equity of 8.20%, revenue of $8.29 billion, operating cash flow of $3.90 billion which is a nice healthy percentage of income. Debt is manageable at $3.72 billion as they have more than enough cash on hand to pay all the bills, with cash on hand at about $5.61 billion. About 74.30% of its stock is owned by institutions, which tells me this is a stable company. Once filled, immediately place a GTC sell order $1.00 above your purchase price to automatically cash in a win when the option price hits the sell mark. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride!
Note: I held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-07-18 – Pickin’ AAPL |
Today I am looking to take another bite out of Apple, Inc. (AAPL) and add it to the portfolio for the second time. The timing is looking better this time around, but could still be better yet. Most everyone was happy with the last AAPL pick.
The available options after the stock split have some interesting amounts to choose from and are still not as affordable as your regular $100 stock option price. But, it’s Apple, the stock looks like it is going to continue to perform for us. All the trending lines are moving up and over the last couple of days share price has come down a bit. And, that my friends is all we need. Of the AAPL product lines, I have an iPhone, an iPad and a MacBook Pro. Lenny is also an AAPL aficionado and buys mostly Apple products for their ease of use and lack of virus issues. Those of us that use Apple love Apple. AAPL headquartered in Cupertino, California with about 80,000 full-time employees. The company manufactures, and markets mobile communication and media devices, personal computers, and portable digital music players worldwide in addition to software and music, books and other media. If you can think it up, there’s an app for that and you can buy it in the app store. The experience when you buy Apple and open the packaging is bar none. They provide the best un-wrap experience of any product on the market. I’ve always been an advocate of presentation and Apple knows how to offer up the very best in presentation. Here are the numbers – revenue of $176.04 billion; a forward P/E of 13.36; operating cash flow of $53.94 billion; total cash on hand of $41.40 billion; and debt of only $16.96, making AAPL a very nice choice. However, please check out the stock chart before you buy. With the Nails strategy, it is more typical for me to pick stocks that are ready to bounce up, not this close to the top but with yesterday’s drop in price of $1.69, I feel a quick bounce coming for a nice DITM calls win. Remember, once filled – please remember to place a GTC sell order a dollar higher than the purchase price, as this will automatically capture what we set out to achieve; a really quick $1,000 dollar profit. Remember: Life’s a journey, enjoy the ride!
(At the time of publications, Dykstra had no positions in the stock mentioned.) |
2014-07-16 – Yes DE |
Today’s choice comes from longtime subscriber Carl who asked me to check out Deere & Company (DE) for him yesterday. I have to agree with Carl and say that the DE stock chart shows some nice potential for upward trending going forward.
And, it’s been a good week or so here at Nails; we’ve cleared out several open positions and moved them to the win column. Lenny and I really enjoy it when that happens. I’m sure you do too. This morning there is a nice buy opportunity with DE for a nice DITM win. It has been a few months since I have stepped up to the plate with DE and the stock chart is looking ripe with opportunity using the Nails strategy. Yesterday’s close at $98.56 per share – is down 7% from the 52-week high mark posted mid-May and yet the stock chart tells me expect improvement on the horizon. With $37.06 billion in revenue, return on equity is posted at 36.61% for most recent quarterly data. Deere P/E ratio tells me the stock is undervalued at 11.56 with a PEG ratio at 1.30. DE has debt of $36.40 billion with only $3.92 billion in cash and will earn $3.58 billion from operations. Their debt ratio looks similar to that of a newlywed couple that have just purchased a house and have 30 years of payments to look forward to. However if you look at the balance sheet, most of the company’s assets are in short term receivables with a nice chunk of fixed assets too, but A/R would nearly cover all debts, so it looks like they have a handle on things. And, after your order is filled, I set a good-till-cancel (GTC) order $1.00 above the average purchase price to lock in a win should the price jump quickly. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride!
(At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned.) |
2014-07-14 – You Can Win – HD Can Help |
Today I’m taking a look again at Home Depot, Inc. (HD). When we find the stocks we like, we revisit them again and again when the timing looks right.
Founded in 1978, The Home Depot, Inc. is the world’s largest home improvement specialty retailer with current revenue at $79.38 billion and operating cash flow of $7.50 billion. The Home Depot has 2,263 retail stores in the United States, Canada, Mexico and China and employs about 365,000 full timers. They are based in Atlanta, Georgia. I’m sure that each of us has been to Home Depot many, many times. The forward P/E is 15.55 and the PEG ratio is 1.11, both a teeny bit higher than ideal to indicate perfect timing. Total debt is $14.74 billion with cash in the bank at $2.51 billion, numbers that would make me happier if reversed, but debt is not a bad thing if managed well and operating cash flow is healthy. HD’s stock chart is showing me upside potential. However, the premium on the options are a bit high. The stock closed yesterday at $79.61 and the options contracts in the recommendation are going for a few dollars higher than the usual Nails Investments formula. It’s a percentage thing. The higher the share price, the more you can expect in premium. For a stock currently close to $80.00 in share price, weSave can expect to pay between $2.00 to $4.00 over the stock/strike spread. HD is currently sitting at about $3.00 over for the option I’ve picked. It has been bouncing around between $2 & $3, so I’ve split it right down the middle. If your order is filled, remember to set a good-till-cancel (GTC) sell order at $1.00 above the purchase price for a lock quick win. Remember: Life’s a Journey, Enjoy the ride.
(At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stock mentioned.) |
2014-07-11 – Take It Up A Level With UTX |
We got another Nails win with PG on Wednesday, and both XOM & WMT posted trades above the posted GTC selling price, but maybe not enough above to clear the difference between the bid/ask price to show a win. If you scored a win, let me know. I do like to keep the scorecard accurate and in line with how you all are doing.
This morning, I am going with one of our Nails long time favorites, United Technologies Corporation (UTX). Getting a Win out of UTX is easy, getting on base first – much more difficult with UTX. I’ve done some averages on the premium for today’s recommendation and what calculates as the best entry price for UTX this morning. Please don’t go over the posted amount. We are close to earnings with UTX, so the price is a bit conservative. As you know from previous columns, UTX specializes in technology products, building systems and aerospace. The options for this company have been elusive, to say the least, but it is better to go after the best companies and not get filled – over going with a so-so company that fills and ends up being a so-so choice. There is nothing so-so about UTX. Anyone who has spent time in an elevator or used an escalator or moving sidewalk is familiar with their Otis segment, and one would be equally hard-pressed to find someone who has never heard of Carrier cooling systems, Pratt & Whitney jet engines or Sikorsky helicopters – all of which are UTX brands. United Technologies is a mega-conglomerate that is vastly diverse and on the cutting edge on technological innovation. They employ more than 212,000 people and have been around since 1934; UTX is here to stay and has been a valuable component in the Nails DITM strategy. Here are the numbers to take note of: Revenue: $62.97 billion; Forward P/E ratio: 14.88; PEG ratio: 1.43; Return on equity: 19.56%; Cash: $4.48 billion; Debt: $20.04 billion; and, Operating cash flow: $7.52 billion. I like the stock chart today. UTX is down several points from the recent high, but overall long term trending is still moving up ever so slightly. The slow stochastic chart is showing that the stock is over-sold, which is a nice buy indicator for us. If you look at the slow stochastic over the past year, there are only a few down points on the graph below the 20 percentage line, and every time – it’s bounced right back up. This tells me timing is very favorable for another quick Nails win. Please be sure to set a GTC sell order for $1.00 more than the purchase price to lock in a $1000 gain when the price hits our sales target. Remember: Life’s a journey, enjoy the ride.
(At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stock mentioned.) |
2014-07-09 – Smokin’ Win with MO |
It looks like those of you who adjusted their GTC on AAPL to $20 as I suggested last week have gotten the payoff of that particular little bonus. APPL rocks!
Today’s recommendation is a favorite of Lenny’s and one we have done quite well with here at Nails. As a non-smoker and one of those people who really dislikes everything having to do with cigarettes, today’s choice would never be an emotional favorite. However, there are plenty of people in the world that still seem to enjoy smelling bad and continue to waste money buying the nasty little cancer sticks – so, why not make a buck off their poor judgment? Companies like Altria Group, Inc. (MO) – which is today’s choice – can be profitable for our bottom line, even if we may not like what they sell. And, when it comes to making money, we should not let our emotions get in the way, at least not when it’s a stock choice. Although it is easier to pull the trigger when you love the products of the companies you buy – but, it’s not a requirement for making a profit. As you know, MO primarily manufactures and sells cigarettes, smokeless products, with brands such as Marlboro, Copenhagen, Skoal, along with a few others. The company also maintains a portfolio of leveraged and direct finance leases in rail and surface transport, aircraft, electric power, real estate, and manufacturing. The company was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia and employs about 9,100 people. The stats for the company to note are: Forward P/E: 15.53; Return on Equity: 111.58%; Quarterly Earnings Growth: -15.20%; Revenue: $17.70 billion; Total Cash: $3.62 billion; Total Debt: $13.99 billion and Operating Cash Flow: $4.84 billion. The stock chart shows continued upside potential as the stock continues to climb higher. We are getting close to when many companies will be reporting earnings, so it’s time to tread lightly and watch out for those that could report disappointing results and take share price down while we’re holding them, so I’m going with a conservative price on MO this morning with very little in premium. If not filled at that price, we don’t want it. Please remember that when the order fills, it is important to set a good-till-cancel (GTC) sell order $1.00 above the purchase price to lock in a win. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride!
Note: I held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-07-07 – Need More Fuel with XOM |
Hopefully everyone enjoyed a safe and lovely three-day weekend. Last Wednesday, before the nice mid-summer break, I went with VLO but, the options weren’t filled. This morning I ended up back in the same sector after considering several other choices. In addition to today’s pick, I also considered QCOM, CSCO, DE, MMM, MO, BA, UTX, EMR & GIS. It was the stock chart and recent wins with today’s selection that helped narrow down the field.
This morning the plan is to fill up with Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM). Exxon Mobil is considered one of the big guns in the energy sector, packing the largest cap rate and highest revenue and has basically the biggest numbers across the board. You can say they are not just a big gun, but the biggest gun in the sector. With gas prices so high at the pump – especially here in Southern California – it’s especially nice when I can score with an oil company and can get a little back. XOM operates in the exploration, production and sales of crude oil, natural gas and petroleum products, with approximately 37,661 gross and 31,823 net wells around the world. The company was founded in 1870, so you can say they have a bit of experience. In looking at the stock chart, it is a good time to make a purchase of XOM options. I’m going with a very conservative option price this morning. The market looks like it may move up a bit today, so please note that I am taking into account a modest uptick in share prices to come up with the best option price. Let’s look at the numbers for XOM: revenue comes in at $392.60 billion; Forward P/E is 13.32; Return on Equity is 18.57%; total cash is $5.60 billion; operating cash flow is $46.42 billion and debt is very manageable compared to operating cash flow and income at $21.37 billion. Timing looks very good for another solid Nails play. Please remember to lock in a win by setting a good-till-cancelled (GTC) selling order once a position is filled. Remember: Life is a Journey; enjoy the ride!
Note: I held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-07-04 – July 4th – Markets Closed |
2014-07-02 – Fuel Up with VLO |
For those of you that were holding our AAPL options and have not yet scored a win. If you still have them, AAPL is just starting its climb back up and you could hold on to them for bigger win if you feel inclined to do so. Normally, I don’t recommend waiting past the posted GTC recommendation before selling, but AAPL is looking as though it has another point or two or three in it before I’d expect it to come back down. Set a GTC at $20.00 and if you do this let me know. If you got your win, please don’t worry, now that AAPL is within our range for a bit, we will be sure to score again with this choice.
This morning I am going back to the well with Valero Energy Corporation (VLO). Valero, the largest independent oil refiner in the country is a relatively small company as compared to the big guns in the oil industry and with gas prices so high at the pump – especially here in Southern California – it’s especially nice when I can score with an oil company and get a little back. VLO operates through three segments: Refining, Retail, and Ethanol. Valero service stations in Southern California are starting to be more prevalent and they have upped the image and are starting to look less “no frills” to more mainstream gas station. As a previous owner of a gas station and convenience store, Lenny and I (working for him at the time) have the experience to know that margins for the retail owner of a gas station are really small, so you have to have a first class convenience store to get and keep customers – or really competitive gas prices. Valero is doing both; their convenience stores are so much cleaner and well stocked over your average ARCO station, but the gas prices are comparable. That is a good combination for success. In looking at the stock chart, it is a good time to make a purchase of VLO options. The stock chart is showing a steep drop from the most recent high and the share price at a nice support level. VLO looks poised to head back up again. VLO revenue comes in at $138.26 billion; Forward P/E is 7.71 and the PEG Ratio is 0.55; Return on Equity is 15.00%; total cash is $3.65 billion; operating cash flow is $4.26 billion and debt is manageable at $6.56 billion. Timing looks good for another solid Nails play. Please remember to lock in a win by setting a good-till-cancelled (GTC) selling order once a position is filled. Remember: Life is a Journey; enjoy the ride!
Note: I held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-06-30 – Rx for a Win with CVS |
On Friday with the portfolio review, I recommended a few immediate rebuys and set the prices for each. We were able to add more PG and PFE options at the price recommendations, but not EBAY. Look for those changes to the scorecard after this posting.
Now for today, the pick is CVS Caremark Corporation (CVS). CVS’s stock chart showing me nice upside potential for a win and several levels of support. Timing is looking very good again for this choice. CVS isn’t just your local pharmacy and drug store. The company’s pharmacy services segment offers pharmacy benefit management services, discounted drug purchase, Medicare Part D services, mail order and specialty pharmacy services, and so on. The company’s retail pharmacy segment sells prescription drugs, over-the-counter drugs, beauty products and cosmetics, seasonal merchandise, greeting cards, and convenience foods, as well as provides film and photo finishing services. It does this with its retail drugstores as well as offering online purchasing. As of December 31, 2013, the company operated 7,660 retail drugstores, 800 Minute Clinic locations, 25 retail specialty pharmacy stores, 12 specialty mail order pharmacies, 4 mail order pharmacies, and CVS.com and Caremark.com Web sites. CVS was founded in 1892 and is headquartered in Woonsocket, Rhode Island employing about 130,000 people. Here are the numbers to consider: Revenue: $128.70 billion, Forward P/E Ratio: 15.05, PEG Ratio: 1.21, Total Cash: $2.85 billion, Operating Cash Flow: 6.32 billion, and Debt: $13.41 billion. Please remember to lock in a win by setting a GTC selling price of $1.00 over your purchase price immediately after your order fills. Remember: Life’s a Journey, Enjoy the ride.
(At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stock mentioned.) |
2014-06-27 – Portfolio Review |
Here is the review of all current open positions. Please make note of the new rebuy recommendations, there were only a few. Also make note that I have made a few immediate rebuy recommendations to act on.
Costco Wholesale Corporation (Cost), Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ), Mondelez International Inc. (MDLZ), and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) are all new positions with 10 contracts each and no changes needed. We are up by about 80 cents and in good position with COST, we are down about 20 cents with VZ, while up with MDLZ about 10 cents, and down with WMT by about 30 cents. Apple Inc. (AAPL) – has been on the portfolio since June 11th. With Wednesday’s rebuy we now have 20 contracts with a combined average value of $17.30. The rebuy has been adjusted and indicators are looking good for getting the optimal rebuy right before things start to improve once again. AT&T, Inc. (T) – has been on the open portfolio since June 9th. We have 10 contracts with an average price of $3.60 and the options are selling for $3.60 putting us at even money. I would rather see the stock go up or even go down so we can improve our price. Anything is better than sideways. However, if you check out the stock chart, share price hasn’t been stagnant since we’ve added the position. It’s gone down a bit and then up a bit, and then down a bit. I’ll watch the chart to re-gauge the rebuy if needed. It is currently OK. Procter & Gamble Company (PG) – has been on the open portfolio since May 19th. We currently have 10 contracts with an average price of $11.20 and the options are going for $9.55. The rebuy had been set at $77.90 and the stock chart is still telling me that it is a good price for support. However, with the options selling for nearly $2.00 less than what we paid for it, we should just add more contracts now. Today, recommending a rebuy of 10 contacts at $9.60 or better. EMC Corporation (EMC) – was added to the portfolio on May 7th. We hold 10 contracts at $6.30 and the options are going for $6.85 which is down a bit from last month but still up from our original buy in. The rebuy is good still. eBay Inc. (EBAY) – was added to the portfolio on April 11th. We now have 70 contracts with an average price of $6.50 while the options are trading much lower at $5.00. EBAY looks like it is in a rally position, but it would be a good idea to pick up more of these options while the price is low. The rebuy has been adjusted to give us a better opportunity to score on this position. You can wait for the rebuy, or you can just buy now if you like. If you try to get more now, set your day order at $5.00 or better. Pfizer Inc. (PFE) – was added to the portfolio on March 17th. We have 30 contracts with an average price of $3.90 and the options are currently going for $2.97 which is down a bit more than it was at the last review. The rebuy has been adjusted for a more immediate rebuy as we really should add more to this position while it’s cheap. The rebuy has been adjusted and the recommendation for an immediate rebuy would be for a day order of $2.85 or better. If you can’t add at that price, the rebuy adjustment will get it for you later. Bank of America (BAC) – has been on the open portfolio list since February 12, 2014. We still have 20 contracts with an average price of $4.80 and they are currently listed at $3.60 which a bit improved from last month. The rebuy price OK but if BAC continues to edge up too slowly, look for a change in the GTC selling price to get out of this one at a lower win price. It’s a bit early to adjust all the positions expiring in 2015, but I may do it early with BAC. General Electric (GE) – has been on the scorecard since January 10th. Here the rebuy price is OK. We have 40 contracts with an average price of $4.80 and the current price for the options is $4.43 and now dropping. I could adjust the rebuy, but I don’t think it would help the position enough right now, so I’m leaving it for now. I may pop in before the next review if needed and adjust if it would improve our standing. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride!
At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned. |
2014-06-25 – Happiness with DIS |
Today, I am going once again with a very well known brand that has provided happiness, joy and adventure for all ages since 1955, the Walt Disney Co. (DIS).
There is probably no other company you can invest in that is guaranteed to instill some appreciation for what they do from people of all ages. Disney has had a small drop in share price over the last couple weeks. It’s ready to start heading back up, as overall trending is moving upward steadily. This is the opportunity we need to catch a quick win on the bounce. Plus there are several layers of support should the stock not bounce high enough right away. Current company stats are as follows: Revenue comes in at $47.10 billion; Forward P/E is 17.86 and the PEG Ratio is 1.23; Return on Equity is 16.42%; total cash is $4.08 billion; operating cash flow is $9.89 billion and debt is a little less than twice that at $15.60 billion. The forward P/E ratio is consistent for DIS, so although a bit high for what Nails likes to recommend, it’s consistent and not a red flag and it is a bit down from the last time we went with DIS. It is the stock chart I like the best about DIS right now. It’s been steadily climbing and looks to continue the trend. Please remember that as soon as an order fills, it is always a good idea to place your limit order for the sell at a $1.00 higher than the purchase price, to lock in a win – as soon as it happens. Remember: Life is a Journey; enjoy the ride! Note: Dykstra held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-06-23 – Save Big on COST |
This morning I decided to see if we could add Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) to the DITM portfolio this morning as COST looked like it would offer a fast turnaround for a quick win.
As we all know, Costco operates membership warehouses and offers discounts on brand and private label goods and services – with no frills stores and high quality merchandise, usually packaged for the mega-consumer. It’s a great place to shop if you have a few kids, own a business or like quality with competitive prices, and have room at home for quantity. From open to close, the place is always busy, always hopping, and always clean. The company sells just about everything, except for the item you bought last week; those will be gone. This “here today, gone tomorrow” situation with inventory sets up a consumer attitude where there is always a feeding frenzy at the cash register, as consumers never know if the items that catch their eye will be in stock the next time they shop, with the exception of the Kirkland brand of products which are Costco’s own brand of merchandise. Along with most of the merchandise they sell, the company has an extra large balance sheet too. Revenues are posted at $109.60 billion annually, they keep $7.28 billion in the bank and $4.98 billion in debt with operating cash flow listed at $3.70 billion. It has a return-on-equity (ROE) of 17.69% and forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22.44, which is quite a bit higher than what I like to see for bargain shopping, but they support a higher P/E ratio on a consistent basis. In November, the company posted a new 52-week high mark of $126.12 and the stock closed Friday, trading at $115.36, down a tad from the most recent high, but with overall trending still favoring upward momentum, which tells me we have a great buy opportunity. Please note that COST options usually carry an extra few bucks in premium over the standard Nails formula because the stock price is up there and it can support it. It’s a percentage thing and rather consistent. There is quite a large difference in the bid/ask price this morning, so help me out and let me know if you get on base. If the order is filled, don’t forget to place a good-till-cancel (GTC) sell order $1.00 higher than the fill price in order to grab a $1,000 victory as soon as possible. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned. |
2014-06-20 – Aim High with LOW |
Today I am going up to the plate to take a swing at Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (LOW) this morning. The LOW’s stock chart is looking like there is opportunity for a quick win.
Lowe’s has grown from a small hardware store in North Carolina to the second largest home improvement retailer worldwide and the 7th largest retailer in the U.S. The company was founded in 1952 and is based in Mooresville, North Carolina and has been helping customers improve home improvement for more than 60 years and has been paying out dividends since the company went public in 1961. Revenue is posted at $53.73 billion; forward P/E is 14.57 and the PEG ratio is 1.05. Total debt is $10.13 billion with operating cash flow at $4.11 billion, numbers that would make me happier if reversed, but debt is not a bad thing if managed well and operating cash flow is healthy. It would be better if the company had more cash on hand, as the number posted online is 768.0 million, but if could pay off all long term and short term personal liabilities with just a little over two years of disposable income, I’d be a happy camper. I have placed a somewhat low recommendation this morning based on the bid/ask price, hoping that the price come to us. Please don’t overpay. Please check the stat book page for trading details and if your order is filled, remember to set a good-till-cancel (GTC) sell order at $1.00 above the purchase price for a lock quick win. Remember: Life’s a Journey, Enjoy the ride. (At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stock mentioned.) |
2014-06-18 – Can You Hear VZ Now? |
Today I am looking to add Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) to the portfolio yet again. The timing for VZ looks good and the options are very affordable.
Verizon touts itself as America’s most reliable wireless network and the most advanced fiber-optic network. The company delivers integrated business solutions to customers in more than 150 countries, including all of the Fortune 500. A Dow 30 company, Verizon employs nearly 177,000 full time employees. The company’s wire-line business provides local telephone, long-distance, and Internet access services to residential and business customers. I have Verizon FIOS and you can’t get a better consumer internet provider in the home without installing a T-1 line. Their HD TV FIOS service isn’t bad either and picture quality is excellent, unless you like the SiFi channel, for some reason that shows up all pixilated, (I have a feeling it’s not part of the bundle I’m paying for). However all in all, the numbers are still nice to look at – Verizon has revenue of $121.95 billion; a forward P/E of 12.78; operating cash flow of $38.43 billion; total cash on hand of $3.54 billion; making Verizon a very solid play, even with debt at a whopping $109.77 billion. The chart for the stock tells me timing is good for another DITM calls victory dance and the recent pull back, although not much of a pullback has provided us with the right trending lines for getting another win. Last time it took us a while to post a Nails win with VZ, but it has always come through. This feels like another win for Lenny’s DITM calls strategy. Remember, once filled – please remember to place a GTC sell order a dollar higher than the purchase price, as this will automatically capture what we set out to achieve; a really quick $1,000 dollar profit. Remember: Life is a Journey; enjoy the ride! Note: Dykstra held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-06-16 – Wins are Sweet with MDLZ |
Happy Post Father’s Day to all the Dad’s out there. We hope your day was everything you wanted it to be.
This morning I am going with Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ), now makers of the ever-popular Oreo and many other recognizable brands. MDLZ., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets cookies, crackers, and salted snacks; chocolates, gums, and candies; powdered beverages and coffee; and other grocery products. Its primary brand portfolio includes Oreo, Nabisco, Cadbury, Trident, Jacobs, and Tang. The company was formerly known as Kraft Foods Inc. and changed its name to Mondelez International, Inc. in October 2012. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois. According to the MDLZ website, they are the world’s pre-eminent maker of snacks, with leading market shares in every category in which they compete, holding the No. 1 position globally in Cookies/Biscuits, Chocolate, Candy and Powdered Beverages as well as the No. 2 position in Gum and Coffee. About three-quarters of their annual revenue is generated in the fast-growing Biscuits, Chocolate and Gum & Candy categories, and nearly 40 percent of their sales come from high-growth emerging markets. Right now the numbers for MDLZ are: Forward P/E ratio of 18.91, Return on Equity of 6.08%, Revenue of over $35.20 billion, total cash on the balance sheet of $2.62 billion, debt of $18.98 billion, which is hefty compared to operating cash flow of $6.22 billion. The stock closed yesterday at $37.45, which is off the 52-week high by only a few points with short term support at about $34 and change. There is additional support at nice intervals. Please see the scorecard page for trading details and if the order is filled, the GTC (good ’til cancelled) order should be set immediately at $1 above the purchase price. Then grab a package of double-stuffed Oreos, poor yourself a large glass of milk, and enjoy. Remember: Life’s a Journey; enjoy the ride. Note: Dykstra held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-06-13 – Shopping for Wins at WMT |
Today we will look to once again to add Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) to the portfolio. The world’s largest retailer has the distinction of being the world’s largest, because they have successfully combined savings with a wide selection. The stock ,along with several others, has pulled back from the recent high enough to trigger the buy button. The stock is poised right above support levels so this morning the option recommendation to buy will account for that and we will only get on board if the stock drops a bit more.
Wal-Mart is a Major League company and they know how to make that cash register ring 24-7 with revenues of $477.18 billion. Yes, that’s right, with all the numbers listed out it reads $477,180,000,000.00 in sales per year. That is a lot of zeros and a figure that is closing in on half a trillion dollars and in doing the math for that, it comes out to $1.31 billion per day; $54.5 million per hour; $907.9 thousand per minute; and $15,131 in sales per second. The register rings every day, 24 hours per day. Can you imagine, truly imagine almost a million dollars a minute? The company generates $24.30 billion in operating cash flow, have $6.01 billion in the bank with a hefty debt load of $55.56 billion. Although the debt is large in comparison to cash, this is long term debt, in the stores, the buildings and the land they sit on. You can’t own that much real estate without owing a few mortgage payments and that averages out to about $5.3 million per store. When you consider the size and value of each store, considering only the real estate, it’s not a huge debt to equity position to have. The company has a return-on-equity (ROE) of 21.13% which is good considering their profit margins are small. Forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is currently at 13.45. If the order is filled, don’t forget to place a good-till-cancel (GTC) sell order $1.00 higher than the fill price in order to grab a $1,000 victory as soon as possible. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned. |
2014-06-11 – Take A Bite Out of AAPL |
Today I am looking to add Apple, Inc. (AAPL) to the portfolio for the first time. The options after the stock split have some interesting amounts to choose from but are about as affordable as your regular $100 stock option price. And, it’s Apple, the stock looks like it is going to shoot up even more. All the trending lines are moving up and apart. Timing could be a bit better, but it’s nice to be able to pick AAPL.
Of the AAPL product lines, I have an iPhone, an iPad and a MacBook Pro. Lenny is also an AAPL aficionado and buys mostly Apple products for their ease of use and lack of virus issues. He too has the iPhone and a MacBook Pro. Those of us that use Apple love Apple. Although, I do have to add in a disclaimer as an accounting professional, AAPL software for accounting is missing the boat completely and I do still have and use a regular PC and laptop that run QuickBooks and the MS Office suite so that I can be productive in my regular day job. Apple is great for light computer use, but if you need to get office type work done, not creative type work done – in my opinion, you still need a PC. AAPL headquartered in Cupertino, California with about 80,000 full-time employees. The company manufactures, and markets mobile communication and media devices, personal computers, and portable digital music players worldwide in addition to software and music, books and other media. If you can think it up, there’s an app for that and you can buy it in the app store. The experience when you buy Apple and open the packaging is bar none. They provide the best un-wrap experience of any product on the market. I’ve always been an advocate of presentation and Apple knows how to offer up the very best in presentation. Here are the numbers – revenue of $176.04 billion; a forward P/E of 13.72; operating cash flow of $53.94 billion; total cash on hand of $41.40 billion; debt of only $16.96; making AAPL a very nice choice. However, please check out the stock chart before you buy. With the Nails strategy, it is more typical to pick stocks that are ready to bounce up, not surging up and at the top. In looking at all the stock charts of all the stocks that are researched each morning, everything was up. So we may as well go big or go home. Even though the stock chart is at the top, this still feels like a quick win for the Nails strategy. Remember, once filled – please remember to place a GTC sell order a dollar higher than the purchase price, as this will automatically capture what we set out to achieve; a really quick $1,000 dollar profit. Remember: Life is a Journey; enjoy the ride! Note: Dykstra held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-06-09 – Try Calling T Again |
Today I am looking to add AT&T, Inc. (T) to the portfolio. The timing for AT&T looks good and the option price is very affordable. This was last Wednesday’s stock pick, but it was not filled on Wednesday – just barely. After slogging through dozens and dozens of stock charts, I find I still like AT&T and the stock chart still looks good. Today I am picking a different option, not going into the money as far but still keeping my strike price at the 52-week low mark. Let’s see if we can get on base taking another swing at T.
AT&T is headquartered in Dallas, Texas and is the largest US telecommunications services provider with over 246,000 full-time employees. The company’s wire-line business provides local telephone, long-distance, and Internet access services to residential and business customers. The company’s wireless service comes in second, after Verizon, but is perking up with offerings of the newest iPhone 5C’s at no charge with a two-year contract. The numbers aren’t bad – revenue of $129.87 billion; a forward P/E of 12.73; operating cash flow of $35.40 billion; total cash on hand of $3.79 billion; making T a very solid play, even with debt at $80.42 billion. However, it is the chart for the stock that has me posting the pick today, which tells me timing looks good for AT&T to trend upward for a change of pace. The stock is trading close to the 52-week high but not too close and overall trending looks good. This feels like a quick win for Lenny’s DITM calls strategy. Remember, once filled – please remember to place a GTC sell order a dollar higher than the purchase price, as this will automatically capture what we set out to achieve; a really quick $1,000 dollar profit. Remember: Life is a Journey; enjoy the ride! Note: I held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-06-06 – Fill It Up With XOM |
Yesterday on FaceBook, a high-school buddy of mine posted an interactive chart that shows how nearly every type of job has fared since the recession. It was quite the chart to look at. On it were 255 separate job types in every imaginable industry. If a job for it exists, it was charted. Unsurprisingly, oil gas and exploration for the same was one of best performing job types out there, outperforming nearly everything else. Oddly enough nail salons are doing really well too when it comes to having lots of new higher paying jobs since the recession (higher paying within that industry, but not necessarily higher pay in the general idea of being paid well). There were lots of job types that have recovered and improved, and lots that haven’t. I know FB isn’t the most reliable source of accurate and trustworthy information, but it was interesting. Not as funny as the flowchart you should use to pick out a religion (if you’re shopping for one), but interesting.
This morning the plan is to fill up once again with Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM). Exxon Mobil is considered one of the big guns in the energy sector, packing the largest cap rate and highest revenue and has basically the biggest numbers across the board. You can say they are not just a big gun, but the biggest gun in the sector. With gas prices so high at the pump – especially here in Southern California – it’s especially nice when I can score with an oil company and can get a little back. XOM operates in the exploration, production and sales of crude oil, natural gas and petroleum products, with approximately 37,661 gross and 31,823 net wells around the world. The company was founded in 1870, so you can say they have a bit of experience. In looking at the stock chart, it is a good time to make a purchase of XOM options. I’m going with a very conservative option price this morning. The market looks like it may move up a bit today, so please note that I am taking into account a modest uptick in share prices to come up with the best option price. Let’s look at the numbers for XOM: revenue comes in at $392.60 billion; Forward P/E is 13.08; Return on Equity is 18.57%; total cash is $5.60 billion; operating cash flow is $46.42 billion and debt is manageable compared to operating cash flow at $21.37 billion. Timing looks very good for another solid Nails play. Please remember to lock in a win by setting a good-till-cancelled (GTC) selling order once a position is filled. Remember: Life is a Journey; enjoy the ride! Note: I held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-06-04 – Take the Call with T |
Today I am looking to add AT&T, Inc. (T) to the portfolio. The timing for AT&T looks good and the option price is very affordable.
AT&T is headquartered in Dallas, Texas and is the largest US telecommunications services provider with over 246,000 full-time employees. The company’s wire-line business provides local telephone, long-distance, and Internet access services to residential and business customers. The company’s wireless service comes in second, after Verizon, but is perking up with offerings of the newest iPhone 5C’s at no charge with a two-year contract. The numbers aren’t bad – revenue of $129.87 billion; a forward P/E of 12.58; operating cash flow of $35.40 billion; total cash on hand of $3.79 billion; making T a very solid play, even with debt at $80.42 billion. However, it is the chart for the stock that has me posting the pick today, which tells me timing looks good for AT&T to trend upward for a change of pace. The stock is trading close to the 52-week high but not too close and overall trending looks good. This feels like a quick win for Lenny’s DITM calls strategy. Remember, once filled – please remember to place a GTC sell order a dollar higher than the purchase price, as this will automatically capture what we set out to achieve; a really quick $1,000 dollar profit. Remember: Life’s a journey, enjoy the ride! (At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stock mentioned.) |
2014-06-02 – Taking Aim Again at TGT |
Several times last year the recommendation and subsequent quick, consistent win has been with Target Corp. (TGT). The discount retailer has proven to be a great choice for the Nails Strategy.
As a result, TGT has become one of my go to choices for this scoring quickness. Then they had the huge data breach/credit-card nightmare right before Christmas. Of course we were holding TGT options at the time. Thankfully the stock rallied back much quicker than expected, allowing us to score another nice win. I’ve recommended TGT since then, but the position didn’t fill. It’s time to grab a red shopping cart and head back in, as the stock chart is poised for upward momentum. The stock sits at the 52-week low, and there is support at this level indicating this could be the floor. Here are the stats to look at: Revenue comes in at $72.94 billion, cash in the bank sits at $716.00 million and operational cash flow is measured to be $3.81 billion with total debt a little more than three-times cash flow at $13.78 billion. I do wish they would keep more cash around as it would help when times get rough, but – this isn’t a new stat and the company continues to make money for us – even through their worst financial challenge, they made money for us. Please remember to immediately place a good-till-cancel (GTC) sell order $1.00 higher than the fill price in order to grab a $1,000 victory as soon as possible. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned. |
2014-05-30 – Portfolio Review |
Portfolio Review –
Deere & Company (DE) – was added to the portfolio on Wednesday May 28th, no adjustment is necessary. United Technologies Corp. (UTX), Proctor & Gamble (PG), Ford Motor Co. (F) – were all add to the portfolio recently. We hold 10 contracts of each and no adjustments are needed at this time. EMC Corporation (EMC) – was added to the portfolio on May 7 th. We hold 10 contracts at $6.30 and the options are going for $7.10, but recent support has moved up. I anticipate a win before any rebuy is needed, but if it is, I’ve adjusted the rebuy. Intel Corporation (INTC) – was added to the portfolio on April 28th. We also hold 10 contracts of INTC at $4.80 and the options are going for $5.56. This position also is looking good for a win before a rebuy, but the rebuy has been updated to align with more recent support levels. eBay Inc. (EBAY) – was added to the portfolio on April 11th. We now have 40 contracts with an average price of $7.40 while the options are trading much lower at $5.75. More rebuys are going to be needed if EBAY doesn’t rally enough. The rebuy has been adjusted to give us a better opportunity to score on this position. Pfizer Inc. (PFE) – was added to the portfolio on March 17th. We have 30 contracts with an average price of $3.90 and the options are currently going for $3.15 which is down some as PFE was really close to a win, but just missed our target exit price. The rebuy has been adjusted and we will have to wait a bit more for the stock to rally back up again. This time when the stock peaks, the GTC exit price may be adjusted to ensure a win. International Paper Co. (IP) – has been on the open portfolio since March 10th and we currently list 40 contracts with an average price of $5.80. The options are selling for $5.95 and showing promise for an win just around the corner. The stock chart is a bit choppy but I see overall upward momentum, especially with the latest surge going up. The rebuy price for IP is OK. Bank of America (BAC) – has been on the open portfolio list since February 12, 2014. We have 20 contracts with an average price of $4.80 and they are currently listed at $3.35. the same as it was last month at the review. The rebuy price has been adjusted and if BAC continues to edge up too slowly, look for a change in the GTC selling price to get out of this one at a lower win price. General Electric (GE) – has been on the scorecard since January 10th. Here the rebuy price is OK. We have 40 contracts with an average price of $4.80 and the current price for the options is $4.71 and improving.
Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! |
2014-05-28 – Put DE in Your Sights |
The market is moving up in a choppy manner which should help out with some of our lingering open positions. Quarterly earnings data has helped somewhat. On Friday with the column review I’m going to become very aggressive with rebuys on all the 2015 options we have. We are starting to lose time value on these positions and it’s time to clear them out.
This morning I am seeing a buy opportunity with Deere & Company (DE) for a nice DITM win. It has been a while since I have stepped up to the plate with DE but the stock chart is looking ripe with opportunity using the Nails strategy. Yesterday’s close at $90.92 per share – is down 5% from the 52-week high mark posted earlier in the month at earning and yet the stock chart tells me expect improvement on the horizon. With an estimated $37.06 billion in revenue, return on equity is posted at 36.61% for most recent quarterly data. Deere P/E ratio tells me the stock is undervalued at 11.82 with a PEG ratio at 1.34 DE has debt of $36.26 billion with only $2.98 billion in cash and will earn $3.58 billion from operations. Their debt ratio looks similar to that of a newlywed couple that have just purchased a house and have 30 years of payments to look forward to. However if you look at the balance sheet, most of the company’s assets are in short term receivables with a nice chunk of fixed assets too, but A/R would nearly cover all debts, so it looks like they have a handle on things. And, after your order is filled, I set a good-till-cancel (GTC) order $1.00 above the average purchase price to lock in a win should the price jump quickly. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! (At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned.) |
2014-05-23 – Take Off with UTX |
This morning, I am going with one of our Nails long time favorites, United Technologies Corporation (UTX). Getting a Win out of UTX isn’t as hard as getting in on the options for the right price, but with just about everything looking good and prices being soft, we should be able to get on base with UTX at the price listed.
As you know from previous columns, UTX specializes in technology products, building systems and aerospace. The options for this company have been elusive, to say the least, but it is better to go after the best companies and not get filled – over going with a so-so company that fills and ends up being a so-so choice. There is nothing so-so about UTX. Anyone who has spent time in an elevator or used an escalator or moving sidewalk is familiar with their Otis segment, and one would be equally hard-pressed to find someone who has never heard of Carrier cooling systems, Pratt & Whitney jet engines or Sikorsky helicopters – all of which are UTX brands. United Technologies is a mega-conglomerate that is vastly diverse and on the cutting edge on technological innovation. They employ more than 212,000 people and have been around since 1934; UTX is here to stay and has been a valuable component in the Nails DITM strategy. Here are the numbers to take note of: Revenue: $62.97 billion; Forward P/E ratio: 15.12; PEG ratio: 1.45; Return on equity: 19.56%; Cash: $4.48 billion; Debt: $20.04 billion; and, Operating cash flow: $6.88 billion. I like the stock chart today. UTX is down a few points from the recent high, but overall long term trending is still moving up. The 21-day moving average and the 50-day moving average have been in a slow dance where they meet, and then pull away (stock moves higher) then meet and pull away. I see four such trends when looking at the 1-year stock chart. They look to be meeting up again (as they do right before the stock moves higher), and other indicators show favorable upward trending as well. Please be sure to set a GTC sell order for $1.00 more than the purchase price to lock in a $1000 gain when the price hits our sales target. Remember: Life’s a Journey, Enjoy the ride. (At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stock mentioned.) |
2014-05-21 – Top the Tank With XOM |
This morning the plan is to fill up once again with Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM). Exxon Mobil is considered one of the big guns in the energy sector, packing the largest cap rate and highest revenue and has basically the biggest numbers across the board. You can say they are not just a big gun, but the biggest gun in the sector.
With gas prices so high at the pump – especially here in Southern California – it’s especially nice when I can score with an oil company and can get a little back. XOM operates in the exploration, production and sales of crude oil, natural gas and petroleum products, with approximately 37,661 gross and 31,823 net wells around the world. The company was founded in 1870, so you can say they have a bit of experience. In looking at the stock chart, it is a good time to make a purchase of XOM options. I’m going with a very conservative option price this morning. The market looks like it may move up a bit today, so please note that I am taking into account a modest uptick in share prices to come up with the best option price and with share price over $100 the option premium is a bit higher than the usual Nails formula. It’s consistent, so it’s OK. Let’s look at the numbers for XOM: revenue comes in at $392.60 billion; Forward P/E is 13.13; Return on Equity is 18.57%; total cash is $5.60 billion; operating cash flow is $46.42 billion and debt is manageable compared to operating cash flow at $21.37 billion. Timing looks good for another solid Nails play. Please remember to lock in a win by setting a good-till-cancelled (GTC) selling order once a position is filled. Remember: Life is a Journey; enjoy the ride! Note: I held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. Additional Note: I posted an error with a rebuy of HD on Monday. It would have been corrected this morning, however HD posted a win yesterday, so it is no longer listed in the open portfolio. The win is posted with 10 contracts purchased, not 20. |
2014-05-19 – Clean the House with PG |
Timing is looking good for longtime Nails favorite – Proctor & Gamble Co. (PG), however buying tomorrow might be better as it might be trending down a little bit more before it starts to trend back up.
PG’s stock chart is good, so I will just grab my shopping cart and head down the cleaning aisles at the grocery store for another chance to score a quick win. Proctor & Gamble probably makes just about every household consumable supply you have. You can go to http://www.pg.com/en_US/brands/all_brands.shtml and check out how often a P&G product falls into your household shopping cart. They have 12 brands that have sales over a billion dollars each and 19 brands that top $500 million in sales each. That, my friends, is a lot of soap. Here is the alphabetical list of brands that top a billion in sales: Always, Ariel, Bounty, Braun, Charmin, Crest, Dawn, Downy, Duracell, Fusion, Gain, Gillette, Head & Shoulders, Iams, Mach 3, Olay, Oral B, Pampers, Pantene, Tide, and Wella. How many of these do you buy? Revenues are posted at $84.70 billion, $13.84 billion in operating cash flow and $9.75 billion in cash or equivalents on the balance sheet. Debt is more than twice operational cash flow, it comes in $36.36 billion, but the company is such a staple of consumable supplies and they’ve been around since 1837 and I don’t plan to stop showering or shaving or moisturizing anytime soon. The company has a return-on-equity (ROE) of 16.01% and forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.73 is a bit higher than I like. But, once again – it’s the stock chart I like today that spells out opportunity for the Nails strategy. Please don’t forget to immediately place a good-till-cancel (GTC) sell order $1.00 higher than the fill price in order to grab a $1,000 victory as soon as we hit the target. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned. |
2014-05-16 – A Cure with AMGN |
Today’s pick is Amgen, Inc. (AMGN). Amgen has been a biotechnology pioneer since 1980, and was one of the first companies to realize the profit potential of bringing safe and effective medicines from lab, to manufacturing plant, to patient. Amgen has literally changed the practice of medicine, helping millions of people around the world in the fight against cancer, kidney disease, rheumatoid arthritis, and other serious illnesses. The company has collaborative projects with Pfizer, Glaxo Group, AstraZeneca and others to further the treatment of serious illness.
This little biotech company, located in the affluent suburb of Los Angeles where Lenny is currently a neighbor is a pretty big player in the pharmaceutical industry, with revenue posting $18.96 billion and a stock chart showing nice upside potential. AMGN reported earnings at the end of last month, with an increase in their dividend payout to stockholders. This is a good sign for investors and timing is looking good for another quick Nails win. The option premium for the option is a bit steep, so I priced the options a bit lower in thinking they shouldn’t be quite so high. We will see if the market maker agrees with us. Here are the stats to note: Forward P/E 12.56; Return on Equity 22.35%; Quarterly Earnings Growth -25.20%; Total Cash $19.80 billion; Debt $32.02 billion; Operating Cash Flow $6.38 billion. If your order fills, please remember to set a good-till-cancel (GTC) order $1.00 above the average purchase price to cash out for a quick win. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! (At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned.) |
2014-05-14 – Revisit HD |
On Monday I quoted two choices to run with, but posted an imaginary option for WMT. So sorry about that. Please let me know if you went with a WMT $72 with a different expiration date. If you did, then I will post it and follow it for the rebuy support.
Now for today: Today I’m taking a look again at Home Depot, Inc. (HD). When we find the stocks we like, we revisit them again and again when the timing looks right. Founded in 1978, The Home Depot, Inc. is the world’s largest home improvement specialty retailer with current revenue at $78.81 billion and operating cash flow of $7.63 billion. The Home Depot has 2,263 retail stores in the United States, Canada, Mexico and China and employs about 365,000 full timers. They are based in Atlanta, Georgia. I’m sure that each of us has been to Home Depot many, many times. The forward P/E is 15.09 and the PEG ratio is 1.02, both a teeny bit higher than ideal to indicate perfect timing. Total debt is $14.73 billion with cash in the bank at $1.93 billion, numbers that would make me happier if reversed, but debt is not a bad thing if managed well and operating cash flow is healthy. HD’s stock chart is showing me upside potential. However, those companies that are showing upside potential are also scheduled to post earnings within the week. HD will post theirs on May 20th. Additionally, HD comes with a steep premium. It’s consistent, but more than what is usually recommended. If this one doesn’t fill, I may circle back around to it after earnings. If your order is filled, remember to set a good-till-cancel (GTC) sell order at $1.00 above the purchase price for a lock quick win. Remember: Life’s a Journey, enjoy the ride.
(At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stock mentioned.) |
2014-05-12 – Discount Shopping with TGT & WMT |
This morning I had trouble deciding between Target and Wal-Mart, so that is why you’re seeing two choices. Target is coming back from a huge customer credit card confidence fiasco, with plenty of upside potential, while Wal-Mart has upward momentum. The stock charts are very different, but I find that I like both, as both look good for a Nails win.
Both companies will be reporting earnings soon. Wal-Mart coming up later this week and Target will share news of the previous quarter next week. With earnings on the horizon for both, perhaps I should have found a third choice, but I didn’t. Feel free to dismiss both choices if buying this close to earnings will make your teeth itch. For Target here are the numbers to look at: Revenue comes in at $72.60 billion, cash in the bank sits at $695.00 million and operational cash flow is measured to be $6.25 billion with total debt about twice cash flow at $13.78 billion. I do wish they would keep more cash around, but – this isn’t a new stat and the company continues to make money for us. The forward P/E ratio is 12.47 and Return on Equity is 12.02%. And, for Wal-Mart they are: The company generates $476.29 billion in revenue, $23.26 billion in operating cash flow, have $7.28 billion in the bank with a hefty debt load of $56.64 billion. The company has a return-on-equity (ROE) of 20.05% which is good considering their profit margins are small. Forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is currently at 13.75. When you look at the stats, WMT is the better choice of the two – but, TGT has been very good to us and timing is better. So, where will you shop today? Please remember to immediately place a good-till-cancel (GTC) sell order $1.00 higher than the fill price in order to grab a $1,000 victory as soon as possible. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned. |
2014-05-09 – Rev Up the Portfolio FORD |
Nothing stirs up nostalgic memories like that of your fist car; cruising around on a warm summer day, with friends piled in, the wind rushing through the open windows, and the radio cranked up.
My first car was a Mustang, although technically it was my brother’s car. But since he was serving in the Air Force overseas and I got to drive around in his Mustang for two years before he returned and claimed his car back. I loved that car. It had power gas. No car I’ve bought since has had quite the umph in the accelerator. This morning Ford’s stock chart is looking like there might be some power gas in the future with plenty of upside potential. The cart is looking good, the stats are looking good, and the option price is excellent. All of this pointing toward a quick Nails win at a very good price. As you all know, Ford Motor Company designs, manufactures, and finances passenger cars and light trucks. Measured by revenue, Ford is the world’s third-largest auto manufacturer, behind Toyota and General Motors. Total annual revenue is about $147.14 billion; debt is around $117.45 billion which is scary high but consistent. Total cash in the bank is around $25.26 billion and operating cash flow totals $12.45 billion. The forward P/E ratio is posting 8.28 and return on equity is solid at 28.94%. Ford employs about 181,000 people worldwide and is headquartered in Dearborn Michigan. “Quality means doing it right when no one is looking.” – Henry Ford Please remember to immediately set up a GTC sell order $1.00 higher to cash out a cool $1000 gain. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! Note: Dykstra held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-05-07 – Big IT is EMC |
Once again the pick is IT giant EMC Corp. (EMC). EMC is a monster company that has been providing information storage solutions for 30+ years. They provide IT solutions to every industry and to nearly every country around the globe. If you’ve got a computer network, chances are good EMC was or is involved. Their company tag line is: “where information lives,” and they aren’t kidding.
I like the stock chart this morning and the slow stochastic chart is on target too for timing a buy. In looking at the numbers I see a forward P/E of 11.80, which is a good indicator that the stock is trading at a good price. Anything under 15 is considered to be undervalued, and that is the place we want our stocks to be priced. When they are undervalued, that’s the best time to buy. Revenue for the company is close to $23.31 billion, total cash on hand is $8.26 billion and debt is very reasonable at $5.49 billion. The company scores big for keeping debt ratios manageable and operating cash flow of $6.55 billion is also very healthy. EMC’s stock chart is showing a sizable drop in share price over the last couple weeks along with everything else. I see this as a clear opportunity to put more cash in the bank for the Nails strategy. I’m going with the $20’s this morning, but if you wanted to go cheaper on the options, you could just as easily go with the $23’s. Please remember to immediately set up a GTC sell order $1.00 higher to cash out a cool $1000 gain. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! Note: Dykstra held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-05-05 – Opportunity with LOW |
Today I am going up to the plate to take a swing at Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (LOW) this morning. It has been a while since LOW has been featured here and the stock chart is looking like there is opportunity for a quick win.
Lowe’s has grown from a small hardware store in North Carolina to the second largest home improvement retailer worldwide and the 7th largest retailer in the U.S. The company was founded in 1952 and is based in Mooresville, North Carolina and has been helping customers improve home improvement for more than 60 years and has been paying out dividends since the company went public in 1961. Revenue is posted at $53.42 billion; forward P/E is 14.60 and the PEG ratio is 1.06. Total debt is $10.52 billion with operating cash flow at $4.11 billion, numbers that would make me happier if reversed, but debt is not a bad thing if managed well and operating cash flow is healthy. I wish I could pay off all long term and short term personal liabilities with just a little over two years of disposable income. LOW is down this morning, and the price adjusted accordingly so please do not overpay for the days recommendation. It’s better to let the price come to you. Please check the stat book page for trading details and if your order is filled, remember to set a good-till-cancel (GTC) sell order at $1.00 above the purchase price for a lock quick win. Remember: Life’s a Journey, Enjoy the ride. (At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stock mentioned.) |
2014-05-02 – Portfolio Review |
Here is the review of all current open positions. Please make note of the new rebuy recommendations, there were only a few.
Intel Corporation (INTC), Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), and CVS Caremark Corporation (CVS) are all recent picks with only 10 contracts apiece. No changes to the rebuy are needed for these. eBay Inc. (EBAY) – has been on the open portfolio since April 11, 2014 and hit a rebuy on the 30th. I have updated the portfolio with an updated average price and rebuy level. Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) – has been on the open portfolio since April 4th. We have 20 contracts with an average price of $9.00 and the current price for our options is $8.62 putting us in a possible rebuy position should the stock drop down further. However, the stock chart for SBUX shows the stock in the final stages of dropping and will soon be trending up, so you shouldn’t expect to see a rebuy before you see a win. I am updating the rebuy to more current support levels. Abbott Laboratories (ABT) – was added to the open portfolio on March 24th. We currently have 20 contracts with an average price of $5.50 and the options are selling for $6.00 with no trading volume for over a week. Although we are up on the position, I’d really like to see some trading going on. ABT looks to be on the verge of peaking, so if you wanted to sell at this point, you could post a small gain and not worry about the stock coming back down some. If you decide to do this – post a GTC at about $6.20 to see if you get a bite and then let me know. Pfizer Inc. (PFE) – was added to the portfolio on March 17th. We have 20 contracts with an average price of $4.30 and the options are currently going for $4.50 which is down some as PFE was really close to a win, but just missed our target exit price. PFE is trading lower this morning on news that their takeover bid for AstraZeneca (AZN) was rejected. I’m sure they will sweeten the pot one more time at least, but overall trending looks favorable for us even with the news, we will have to wait a bit more for the stock to rally. International Paper Co. (IP) – has been on the open portfolio since March 10th and we currently list 40 contracts with an average price of $5.80. The options are selling for $5.20, but showed promise Wednesday by jumping up to $6.30 before dropping back down. The stock chart is a bit choppy but I see overall upward momentum The rebuy price for IP has been adjusted to account for more recent support levels posted. Bank of America (BAC) – has been on the open portfolio list since February 12, 2014. We have 20 contracts with an average price of $4.80 and they are currently listed at $3.35. The rebuy price is OK for now. If BAC continues to edge up slowly, look for a change in the GTC selling price to get out of this one at a lower win price. General Electric (GE) – has been on the scorecard since January 10th. Here too the rebuy price was adjusted to reflect most recent support levels. We have 40 contracts with an average price of $4.80 and the current price for the options is $4.85 and improving. The rebuy has been adjusted upward as well. Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) – has been on the open portfolio list since November 27th and we have 80 contracts with an average price of $6.00. The options are currently going for $5.08 which is coming back up from the low. VZ has been choppy, but needs to bounce higher before we can post a win with this position. The rebuy needs no change. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned. |
2014-04-30 – Another Go With EMC |
This morning’s research took me around in circles. I started off liking the stock chart for this morning’s pick, but then when I looked a bit deeper into the cause of EMC’s share price pull back, I then looked at VMWare which EMC derives much of its income from and thought to go with them instead. From there I looked again at TXN, which is looking good but insiders at TXN are shedding shares and no one within the company is picking them up. From there I looked at HPQ and QCOM before I circled back around and looked again at EMC.
Right now tech shares have been dropping and we want to buy when stocks shed excess weight and have them as they bulk up again. Tech seems the right sector for buying. So, once again the pick is IT giant EMC Corp. (EMC). EMC is a monster company that has been providing information storage solutions for 30+ years. They provide IT solutions to every industry and to nearly every country around the globe. If you’ve got a computer network, chances are good EMC was or is involved. Their company tag line is: “where information lives,” and they aren’t kidding. In looking at the numbers I see a forward P/E of 11.79, which is a good indicator that the stock is trading at a good price. Anything under 15 is considered to be undervalued, and that is the place we want our stocks to be priced. When they are undervalued, that’s the best time to buy. Revenue for the company is close to $23.22 billion, total cash on hand is $10.66 billion and debt is very reasonable at $7.16 billion. The company scores big for keeping debt ratios manageable and operating cash flow of $6.92 billion is also very healthy. EMC’s stock chart is showing a sizable drop in share price over the last couple weeks along with everything else. I see this as a clear opportunity to put more cash in the bank for the Nails strategy. Please remember to immediately set up a GTC sell order $1.00 higher to cash out a cool $1000 gain. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride!
Note: Dykstra held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-04-28 – More IT with INTC |
If you missed Lenny’s radio broadcast, you can tune in to the full show by following this link: http://hwcdn.libsyn.com/p/b/c/1/bc1684e7be4ad155/full_show.mp3?c_id=5433730&expiration=1398710582&hwt=9e4a2dba76ddbc8793ff7b11c47bd5f9
It was very entertaining! Although Lenny never prepares for interviews, he was on point and was very candid. It turned out to be one of his best. It’s two hours long, so prepare yourself to getting sucked in and having to listen to the whole thing. It’s hard to walk away from and it will allow you a small glimpse of his unique personality. Response to the show has been great so far. Listen and share your thoughts. Today’s pick: Intel Corporation (INTC). We’ve have an excellent success rate with INTC using the Nails strategy. And, once again it’s looking like a pretty nice buy opportunity. Share price has dropped down from a jump in price, and in looking at the moving averages I am seeing plenty of continued upside potential. With upside potential, there is an opportunity to buy and get another INTC win and the options are going for a really good price too, even the leaps – which are the recommendation this morning. Here at Nails we have stated many times – Intel continues to be one of the most dominant companies in the world. It defines the term “wide moat,” meaning Intel has very few competitive disadvantages. They control the playing field with an 80% market share and this makes them one of the single best stocks in the world. And they will continue to perform. INTC closed trading yesterday at $26.26, which is not down much from the 52-week high of $27.24 posted about a week ago, so if you think I’m playing it too close to the high, then go ahead and sit it out. However, the drop in share price is consistent with typical Wall Street’s reaction to earnings. INTC once again jumped up ahead of earnings, perhaps more than what was realistic, then dropped back down again. However the moving averages are still on the rise and look to be expanding. That’s always a good sign. Let’s look to the numbers: Revenue: 52.89 billion, Forward P/E: 13.13, Return on Equity: 17.43%, Cash: 19.05 billion, Debt: 13.21 billion. There were a couple of wins to post , so look for an update to the open portfolio to pop in with new numbers next. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride!
Note: I held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-04-25 – Booting Up with MSFT |
This afternoon, Lenny is co-hosting a radio broadcast in Philly with Mike Missanelli which can be heard online at www.975thefanatic.com. You should tune in. It’ll be fun.
This morning’s choice is Microsoft Corporation (MSFT). MSFT share price been going up since last September. It’s been moving very choppily, and with the most recent drop we have a very nice Nails opportunity. I’m not a big fan of Windows 8, but Windows 9 should be an improvement. MSFT seems to miss the boat with every other operating system release. Thankfully, I am not in the market for a new computer. My current configuration with MS7 works nicely and they will really have to fix things before I jump in again. Apart from my personal preference with the current OS, the company remains one of the strongest out there, period. You can let the numbers be your guide. MSFT has a Forward P/E ratio of 13.74; revenue remains very nice at $83.43 billion; cash in the bank at $83.03 billion (which is a lovely number); and, debt of only $23.73 billion in comparison with operating cash flow of over $28.19 billion which is excellent in anyone’s book. I wish my personal balance sheet looked that nice, even proportionally. Return on Equity is a strong at 28.95%. Yesterday, MSFT reported earnings and the stock is up this morning. We may have to try again soon if the options get away from us. If your order is filled, don’t forget to set a good-till-cancel (GTC) sell order $1.00 above the purchase price to lock in a win. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride!
Note: Dykstra held not positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-04-23 – Wins are Bigger with TXN |
Let’s get right to today’s pick: Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN), creators of the first computer using integrated circuits and the first handheld calculator.
I think we bought one of those first calculator models, back in 1972, as the first calculator in our home was a TI, back when I was in fifth grade. The first real desktop computer in our home was also a TI which came home with my brother in 1985 or so. It came with a HUGE 5MB hard drive and could be programmed using basic programming language and the big game to play was Zork, which you can download on your phone now. It’s now called interactive fiction as there were no graphics. You moved about the Zork world with visuals you supplied yourself by reading the descriptions that were written out. As for gaming standards – it would be very low end for your phone. We loved it. TXN has an excellent track record here at Nails and one of my personal favorites. TI’s vision for new products is to help create self-driving cars for and controls for home appliances linked to your cells phones. In the future – TI and I both seem to think that our world will soon be condensed into what can be programmed into a phone app or how you can gain access to their new DLP technology for projectors using a wide array of platforms, including again – smart phones, tablets and laptops. From previous columns about the company, you will know that Texas Instruments is a world leader in digital signal processing and analog technologies. With about 32,000 employees worldwide, they are a monster company with a rock solid balance sheet. Revenue comes in at $12.20 billion and the company’s forward P/E ratio is still looking a bit on the high side at 19.33 and return on equity posts at 19.86%. However, tomorrow – these numbers will change, as they release earnings after the market closes. TXN manufactures a whole host of products, from audio, video and imaging — to medical, industrial and military products and applications. This company is all about cash management and that is a very healthy way to run a business. Debt doesn’t have to be bad, but if you can keep your cash in the bank and generate continued organic company growth – you are certainly doing something right. Although in 2012, TXN added a bit of long term financing to its balance sheet– adding debt by financing the purchase of National Semiconductor. And it is through this purchase of National Semiconductor that supplies Apple components which has been helping TXN’s share price for a while. They have cash in the bank totaling $3.83 billion, debt of $5.16 billion and operating cash flow of $3.38 billion – which will all be updated tomorrow after earnings. Looking to the chart, we see Texas Instruments has been steadily climbing since mid-October of 2012 and currently sits in the low $40’s. I am seeing support at several levels and room at the top after our most recent pull back, so we wouldn’t need to break resistance to see a win. We don’t need much of a spread for a good DITM opportunity, so today offers us a good opportunity for a buy. But, if we don’t get on base today, look for a repeat column in the next week or two. Please remember it is important to set a good-till-cancel (GTC) sell order $1.00 above the purchase price to lock in a win, should your order fill. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride!
Note: I held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-04-21 – Fill Your Rx with CVS |
This morning, it was tempting to go with Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL). I thought about doing it, but since it would be a new recommendation to Nails that I’ve never followed, prudence won out over being sentimental.
The reason for the possible HRL choice is that early this morning, my dad passed away, and Skippy peanut butter was his all-time favorite food. Skippy is made by Hormel, so I thought to offer a small tribute with the pick. He really loved his peanut butter. It was a love he shared with his seven children, 14 grandchildren and 16 great-grandchildren. He is survived by a whole boat load of peanut butter lovers and those that are really good with math. Although not today’s pick – I need to put HRL on the radar for further study, and then come in with it when more confident with the choice. On the surface, the stock chart didn’t look too bad for a pick; in fact it looked pretty good. Now for today, the pick is CVS Caremark Corporation (CVS). It’s been a while since CVS was a pick, yet we’ve scored two for two with the choice so far; batting 1000. CVS’s stock chart showing me nice upside potential for a win and several levels of support. Timing is looking very good. CVS isn’t just your local pharmacy and drug store. The company’s pharmacy services segment offers pharmacy benefit management services, discounted drug purchase, Medicare Part D services, mail order and specialty pharmacy services, and so on. The company’s retail pharmacy segment sells prescription drugs, over-the-counter drugs, beauty products and cosmetics, seasonal merchandise, greeting cards, and convenience foods, as well as provides film and photo finishing services. It does this with its retail drugstores as well as offering online purchasing. As of December 31, 2013, the company operated 7,660 retail drugstores, 800 Minute Clinic locations, 25 retail specialty pharmacy stores, 12 specialty mail order pharmacies, 4 mail order pharmacies, and CVS.com and Caremark.com Web sites. CVS was founded in 1892 and is headquartered in Woonsocket, Rhode Island. Here are the numbers to consider: Revenue: $126.76 billion, Forward P/E Ratio: 14.69, PEG Ratio: 1.22, Total Cash: $4.18 billion, Operating Cash Flow: 5.78 billion, and Debt: $13.40 billion. Please remember to lock in a win by setting a GTC selling price of $1.00 over your purchase price immediately after your order fills. Remember: Life’s a Journey, Enjoy the ride.
(At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stock mentioned.) |
2014-04-16 – Another IT Win with EMC |
Thanks again to all who wished me and my husband a happy anniversary. It was very nice to hear from all of you!
Hopefully everyone got their taxes filed by yesterday’s deadline or filed an extension. My regular job, beyond Nails, is accounting, so I’ve been a busy little bee and happy to say that business in small business accounting is picking up, with more companies needing my help this year. A busy tax season with new companies that have set up shop bodes well for the economy. Not all of them will have what it takes to make it long term, but some show exceptional promise and that is always very good to see. Here at Nails, we select stocks based on fundamental strength; we recommend a buy at key support levels and recommend a sell when the options clear a predetermined price point. In doing this, we keep our emotions from snagging up the system. Over and over, the system continues to perform. As such, we picked up another win yesterday with KO and got on base with MSFT. Turn and burn. Today’s pick is IT giant EMC Corp. (EMC). EMC is a monster company that has been providing information storage solutions for 30+ years. They provide IT solutions to every industry and to nearly every country around the globe. If you’ve got a computer network, chances are good EMC was or is involved. Their company tag line is: “where information lives,” and they aren’t kidding. In looking at the numbers I see a forward P/E of 12.41, which is a good indicator that the stock is trading at a good price. Anything under 15 is considered to be undervalued, and that is the place we want our stocks to be priced. When they are undervalued, that’s the best time to buy. Revenue for the company is close to $23.22 billion, total cash on hand is $10.66 billion and debt is very reasonable at $7.16 billion. The company scores big for keeping debt ratios manageable and operating cash flow of $6.92 billion is also very healthy. EMC’s stock chart is showing a sizable drop in share price over the last couple weeks along with everything else. I see this as a clear opportunity to put more cash in the bank for the Nails strategy. For this one I say, “Lock & Load.” Although, please note: EMC is a week out from reporting earnings. I see upside potential for EMC and great timing in the stock chart, but a surprise disappointing earnings report could set us up for a couple extra rebuys. If you want to take a wait and see attitude on this one – if we get in, just wait until after the first rebuy and buy in at that point. It could save you some cash, but you could also miss out on the opportunity should the options score before a rebuy occurs. Please remember to immediately set up a GTC sell order $1.00 higher to cash out a cool $1000 gain.
Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! |
2014-04-14 – Choose Well with MSFT |
Today is my 30th wedding anniversary. Although, by the number alone, it may seem like it’s been a while and a significant milestone to achieve and celebrate, it has been 30 really easy, really enjoyable years. It doesn’t seem like it’s been that long at all.
I chose well. A while back I read a silly book call the Sweet Potato Queen or Princess, something like that. It was a fluff read and mainly forgettable, but the main character had one good piece of advice she gave out, and that was to be “choosy.” I have always been very choosy and to this day – I can’t recommend anything more useful. We should all strive to be choosy, by taking time to consider our choices and choosing well. This morning’s choice is Microsoft Corporation (MSFT). MSFT share price been going up since last September. It’s been moving very choppily, and with the most recent drop we have a very nice Nails opportunity. I’m not a big fan of Windows 8, but Windows 9 should be an improvement. MSFT seems to miss the boat with every other operating system release. Thankfully, I am not in the market for a new computer. My current configuration with MS7 works nicely. Apart from my personal preference with the current OS, the company remains one of the strongest out there, period. You can let the numbers be your guide. MSFT has a Forward P/E ratio of 13.52; revenue remains very nice at $83.43 billion; cash in the bank at $83.03 billion (which is a lovely number); and, debt of only $23.73 billion in comparison with operating cash flow of over $28.19 billion which is excellent in anyone’s book. I wish my personal balance sheet looked that nice, even proportionally. Return on Equity is a strong at 28.95%. If your order is filled, don’t forget to set a good-till-cancel (GTC) sell order $1.00 above the purchase price to lock in a win. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride!
Note: Dykstra held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-04-11 – Bid Again on EBAY |
We had a couple rebuys hit yesterday. ABT and SBUX both dropped to the recommended rebuy level. However, with SBUX – no rebuy will post because buying would not have improved the position. There is no need to rebuy a position if doing so doesn’t lower your average price. Instead, I have revisited the stock chart and adjusted the rebuy price to the next level of support, so that if the stock drops further, the next rebuy will help our position.
For this morning’s pick, there were a few good choices. I liked EMC, MSFT, CVS and a few others. However opportunity knocks once again with Monday’s 1-day winner – eBay Inc. (EBAY). The choppiness of the stock chart makes it a great Nails choice for really quick results. We like quick, so the recommendation is the same as it was for Monday. The online auction house has been around since 1995 and has close to 32,000 full timers and does more than just allow you to clean out your garage or the contents of your sock drawer. It’s a household name and you can find just about anything your heart desires on eBay and of course, in the process, they make their cut, but they also own PayPal, so they get another cut there. That results in over $16 billion in revenue annually. I like eBay this morning for the stock chart. Share price sits again between the high and the low when looking at the yearly chart. In the last year, the share price has moved between $48.06 and 59.70, and with precision-like regularity it has gone up and down several times. Here are the stats to look at: Revenue comes in as noted above at $16.05 billion, cash in the bank sits at $9.02 billion and operational cash flow is measured to be $5.00 billion with total debt at $4.12 billion. The forward P/E ratio sits at 15.95 and share price has dipped again for some very nice upside potential. Once again, I would have liked to go with the January 2015 $50’s but the premium was way too high, so I’ve gone deeper in the money to lower the premium and provide additional intrinsic value to the recommendation. Please remember to immediately place a good-till-cancel (GTC) sell order $1.00 higher than the fill price in order to grab a $1,000 victory as soon as possible. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride!
At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned. |
2014-04-09 – Run With NKE |
How about that nice one day win with EBAY? That brings our win total up to 418. Not bad for a broken down baseball player and his stock picking protégé, yours truly.
Carl’s list of the top 100 NAIC stocks has inspired this morning’s pick. In looking more closely at the stocks on the list that have not been Nails picks, there is some potential there to add some nice choices to our lineup. In recent months I’ve started walking or hiking (depending on your definition) several times per week. A friend of mine found this lovely trail that takes us up and down, up and down these nasty little hills. Our jaunt of about 3 miles is a series of gasping for breath in between colorful swearing that the trail should be getting easier by now. The trail isn’t paved and although I’m not yet fit or slim, I’ve managed to chew up a few pairs of walking shoes. All that gravel really takes a toll on the footwear. Being in the market for a new set of togs has me thinking of my first pair of brand name tennis shoes and today’s choice: Nike, Inc. (NKE). Nike reported earnings yesterday and the stock chart is poised for a nice bounce. Timing looks good and I’m going with the 2016 leaps. Here are the stats to look at: Revenue comes in as noted above at $27.07 billion; cash in the bank sits at $5.03 billion; and, total debt at $1.33 billion. The forward P/E ratio is a little high at 21.57 and going forward I’ll keep tabs on that to make sure it’s consistently a bit higher than the Nails norm. With NKE as a new pick, I’ve not been staring at their financials on a daily basis like I do with all our other usual Nails picks. Please remember to immediately place a good-till-cancel (GTC) sell order $1.00 higher than the fill price in order to grab a $1,000 victory as soon as possible. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride!
At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned. |
2014-04-07 – Bidding on eBay |
This morning I looked at several choices for a Nails recommendation and went with a somewhat new choice for Nails. I decided to do my shopping online this morning, and went with eBay Inc. (EBAY). I have picked EBAY once before – but the choice did not get filled.
The online auction house has been around since 1995 and has close to 32,000 full timers and does more than just allow you to clean out your garage or the contents of your sock drawer. It’s a household name and you can find just about anything your heart desires on eBay and of course, in the process, they make their cut, but they also own PayPal, so they get another cut there. That results in over $16 billion in revenue annually. I like eBay this morning for the stock chart. Share price sits again between the high and the low when looking at the yearly chart. In the last year, the share price has moved between $48.06 and 59.70, and with precision-like regularity it has gone up and down several times. Here are the stats to look at: Revenue comes in as noted above at $16.05 billion, cash in the bank sits at $9.02 billion and operational cash flow is measured to be $5.00 billion with total debt at $4.12 billion. Share price has been dropping recently for some very nice upside potential. I would have liked to go with the January 2016 $50’s but the premium was way too high, and I mean WAY TOO HIGH, so I’ve gone deeper in the money and switched to 2015 to lower the premium and provide some intrinsic value to the recommendation. Please remember to immediately place a good-till-cancel (GTC) sell order $1.00 higher than the fill price in order to grab a $1,000 victory as soon as possible. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride!
At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned. |
2014-04-04 – Brewing Success with SBUX |
Yesterday, long time subscriber Carl forwarded a list of the top 100 stocks held by the National Association of Investors Corp. He pointed out that the list has some very familiar names for us here at Nails. In looking at the list, I was very pleased to see how right he was, many of the top 100 of the NAIC are recurring Nails picks. How about that?
When choosing a company to trade using Lenny’s DITM calls strategy, many factors are considered. I look for quality companies that provide strong financials; a healthy income with steady growth and sector strength; a return on equity greater than the company’s price to earnings ratio; a debt to equity ratio of less than one, or if circumstances warrant, less than 1.5, but the lower the ratio, the better; and lastly, plenty of cash. While the number of top notch corporations that fit that part of the criteria is numerous, we then need to narrow our focus and find a stock that is also undervalued or oversold. To make this process easier, I have a list of companies have proven profitable in the past and/or those that have name or brand recognition. And lastly, the purchase price of the option when added to the strike price must fall into our prescribed rule of being no more than a dollar over the stock price, but adjusted at times for stocks that pull off a greater premium consistently. Those are the guidelines, and it’s not always possible to have all the stars align for each morning pick, but – we do try to come as close as we can. The result is a very healthy win ratio and happy subscribers. Lenny taught me well!!! For today’s pick, I’ll take a Grande Mocha Frappuccino with extra caramel sauce blended in and revenue is at $15.34 billion; a forward P/E rations that’s a little high at 23.06; and brand recognition so strong, it will be unnecessary to describe their products and services. Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) provides liquid energy worldwide. Their coffees, espressos, various food items and accessories can be found on nearly every U.S. street corner. They operate retail stores primarily in the United States, Canada, and the UK, as expected. But they can also be found in Thailand, Australia, Germany, China, Singapore, Puerto Rico, Chile, and Ireland, bringing the total of company operated stores to approximately 10,194, and if I had to guess, I’d say that if I visited any one of them, there would be a predictable line of customers too. However, the stock has been coming back from the February low and looks to be edging back up to that nice mid-November-December peak. The stock chart is looking good for timing. All those lines are crossing and heading the right direction for another nice Nails win. Starbucks was founded in 1985, employs over 182,000 and is based in Seattle, Washington. Please remember to immediately place a good-till-cancel (GTC) sell order $1.00 higher than the fill price in order to grab a $1,000 victory as soon as possible. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride!
At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned. |
2014-04-02 – Aim For A Win With TGT |
Several times last year the recommendation and subsequent quick, consistent win has been with Target Corp. (TGT).
As a result, TGT has become one of my go to choices for this scoring quickness. Then they had the huge credit card nightmare right before Christmas. Of course we were holding TGT options at the time. Thankfully the stock rallied back much quicker than it could have allowing us to score another nice win. Here are the stats to look at: Revenue comes in at $72.60 billion, cash in the bank sits at $695.00 million and operational cash flow is measured to be $6.25 billion with total debt about twice cash flow at $13.78 billion. I do wish they would keep more cash around, but – this isn’t a new stat and the company continues to make money for us. Please remember to immediately place a good-till-cancel (GTC) sell order $1.00 higher than the fill price in order to grab a $1,000 victory as soon as possible. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride!
At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned. |
2014-03-31 – Portfolio Review |
Here is the review of all current open positions. Please make note of the new rebuy recommendations, there were only a few.
Abbott Laboratories (ABT) – was added to the open portfolio on March 24th and needs no adjustments. Walt Disney Company (DIS) – was added to the open portfolio on March 19th and has already seen two rebuys giving us 30 contracts with an average price of $12.70 while the going price is currently at $12.00. DIS is expected to jump nicely this morning which should help make up some ground on this position. In looking at the DIS chart, the position looks to be in good shape going forward. Pfizer Inc. (PFE) – was added to the portfolio on March 17th. We have 10 contracts with an average price of $4.80 and the options are currently going for $5.75 making this position right on the cusp of a win. PFE is trading lower this morning so, look for that win to post in the next few days. Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) – was added to the portfolio on March 12th. We have 20 contracts with an average price of $16.90 and the options are currently going for $14.00 which is down a bit from our average. Although a rebuy is likely in the cards for this position, the current rebuy price is correct, however, there may be a change in the rebuy recommendation in the next week or two. Look for that. International Paper Co. (IP) – has been on the open portfolio since March 10th and we currently list 30 contracts with an average price of $6.00. The options are selling for $5.35 and gaining some momentum and look to be going up. The rebuy price for IP has been adjusted to account for more recent support levels posted. Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) – was added to the scorecard on February 24, 2014. We have 20 contracts with an average price of $2.50 and the options back up to $2.82. I have adjusted the rebuy price to account for more recent support levels but expect to see this one cash in before we would need to rebuy. Bank of America (BAC) – has been on the open portfolio list since February 12, 2014. We have 10 contracts with an average price of $5.20 and they are currently listed at $5.13. The rebuy price is OK for now. If BAC continues to edge up slowly, look for a change in the GTC selling price to get out of this one at a lower win price. Deere & Company (DE) – has been on the scorecard since January 17th. We have 30 contracts at $9.30 and the options are going for $9.08 which is a significant improvement over last month. The rebuy price is looking good for now. However, DE may peak before we see the right GTC recommendation for a sell. If we can get out of DE with a smaller profit at the top, I may adjust the GTC to do so. Coca-Cola Company (KO) – has been on the scorecard since January 13th. We have 40 contracts with an average price of $4.50 and the options are currently going for $4.40 which is much improved over last month. The rebuy price is OK and it looks like the market could be going the right direction for the position to come back into the green. KO is climbing higher and we are close to even money after all the rebuys. There is still room at the top, so I don’t think any adjustment to the GTC will be needed for KO to score us a win. General Electric (GE) – has been on the scorecard since January 10th. Here too the rebuy price was adjusted to reflect most recent support levels. We have 40 contracts with an average price of $4.80 and the current price for the options is $4.20 and improving. A rebuy at the right price would help if the stock drops, but most of our older positions, including this one are doing better than they were last month at the review. The rebuy has been adjusted but I am expecting several of our older positions to clear the board this month including GE. Procter & Gamble (PG) – has been with us since December 6th. We have 80 contracts with an average price of $10.90 which are going for $10.50 which is also much improved over last month. The rebuy price for PG is good for now. Let’s hope we can grab a win should the current bounce upward continue for a bit longer. PG should score for us if we see a little bounce. Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) – has been on the open portfolio list since November 27th and we have 70 contracts with an average price of $6.20. The options are currently going for $5.65 which is coming back up from the low. VZ has been rallying nicely, but needs to bounce higher before we can post a win with this position. A new rebuy has been posted. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride!
At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned. |
2014-03-28 – Flying High WIth BA |
A month ago, I went with the same stock as today’s recommendation and we scored a very quick 2-day win. On Wednesday we scored with Exxon Mobil in a single day, buying on Wednesday and cashing in on Thursday. Here at Nails, we try to do that sort of quick win all the time. The faster we can ring the cash register, the quicker our net earnings from the strategy will grow. Cha-Ching!
So today’s pick once again is Boeing Company (BA). BA is involved in the design, development, manufacture, sale and support of commercial jetliners, military aircraft, satellites, missile defense, human space flight, and launch systems and services. Boeing is a major player in the U.S. defense industry and will continue to win both defense and commercial contracts well into the future. My grandpa worked for Rockwell International, which later became Boeing here in Southern California. My uncle worked for Boeing up in Seattle, and my father-in-law worked for both, starting off at Rockwell and later retiring from Boeing, also here in Southern California. It’s a pretty good stat to have that many people from the family sharing the Boeing tradition, but what’s even more amazing is they each stayed with the company for more than 30 years, all of them retiring from the company. That’s a pretty good work environment to inspire such long term dedication. Plus it was cool knowing that people you were close to laid hands on the actual Apollo capsules and worked on the Space Shuttles. Last month BA scored a big defense contract with the Navy worth $2.1 billion for 16 P-8A Poseidon spy planes and will get another big payday building eight more of the same for Australia for $3.6 billion allowing us to score our quick win last month. The stock is back down in position for us to score again. Here are the numbers to note: Forward P/E Ratio – 14.83, PEG Ratio – 1.62, Return on Equity – 43.75%, Revenue – $86.62 billion, total cash – $15.21 billion, debt – $9.64 billion and operating income is posted at $8.18 billion. Remember: Life’s a Journey, Enjoy the ride. (At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stock mentioned.) |
2014-03-26 – Filler Up With XOM |
This morning the plan is to fill up once again with Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM). Exxon Mobil is considered one of the big guns in the energy sector, packing the largest cap rate and highest revenue and has basically the biggest numbers across the board. You can say they are not just a big gun, but the biggest gun in the sector.
With gas prices so high at the pump – especially here in Southern California – it’s especially nice when I can score with an oil company and can get a little back. XOM operates in the exploration, production and sales of crude oil, natural gas and petroleum products, with approximately 37,228 wells around the world. The company was founded in 1870, so you can say they have a bit of experience. In looking at the stock chart, it is a good time to make a purchase of XOM options. I’m going with a very conservative option price this morning. The market looks like it may move up a bit today, so please note that I am taking into account a modest uptick in share prices to come up with the best option price. Let’s look at the numbers for XOM: revenue comes in at $393.72 billion; Forward P/E is 12.50; Return on Equity is 19.00%; total cash is $4.64 billion; operating cash flow is $44.91 billion and debt is manageable at $22.70 billion. Timing looks good for another solid Nails play. Please remember to lock in a win by setting a good-till-cancelled (GTC) selling order once a position is filled. Remember: Life is a Journey; enjoy the ride! Note: I held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-03-24 – Neighborhood Favorite with ABT |
The pick today is Abbott Laboratories (ABT), which is trending along with most everything else that has dipped a bit and looking to bounce back up. ABT should give us a chance to score another DITM win with this pharmaceutical giant.
According to the company profile, Abbott Laboratories offers branded generic pharmaceuticals; they provide diagnostic systems and tests; they offer pediatric and adult nutritional products, and a host of other products and services. The company was founded back in 1888 and is headquartered in Abbott Park, Illinois. They also have a huge facility here in Southern California right next door to my own home town. They are one of Temecula’s largest employers. Revenue comes in at $21.85 billion, a Forward P/E ratio of 15.54, and Abbott has $8.10 billion in cash with $6.56 billion in debt and $3.32 billion is operational cash flow. The stock chart for ABT looks a bit choppy at the 1-year interval, with some very spiky ups and downs. We can use that to our advantage to score a quick win. Please remember that once your order fills it is important to set a good-till-cancel (GTC) sell order $1.00 above the purchase price to lock in a win. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! Note: I held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-03-21 – Mmm-ing With MMM |
Today marks the eighth anniversary of the day Lenny hired me originally. In some ways, it seems like a lifetime or two ago and in other ways it seems like only yesterday. Cheers to everyone else out there celebrating a milestone or occasion too.
For today’s recommendation, I am going back to multi-industry conglomerate 3M (MMM). 3M has been a consistent winner for Nails and the stock chart looks good, I can’t resist taking a swing. Using a basket of stocks is one of the better parts of the Nails strategy; knowing you can win with the same choice again and again. Although with 3M, it can be a challenge getting on base. 3M is a highly profitable, technologically differentiated innovation machine that is best known for everybody’s favorite reminder: the Post-It Note. I doubt you could find a home or office anywhere without a cube of the infamous sticky notes, as they are a fixture essentially anywhere and everywhere. Beyond the Post-It, 3M has a lot to offer consumers and investors, operating in six business segments: industrial and transportation; health care; safety, security and protection services; consumer and office; display and graphics, and electro and communications. Though they are based in Minneapolis, MN, the company spans the globe. In fact, their exposure to faster growth markets abroad is phenomenal. Two-thirds of their revenue is currently derived internationally. Looking at the stats: Forward P/E: 16.13 | Return on Equity: 23.24% | Revenue: 30.87 billion | Total Cash: 3.34 billion | Total Debt: 6.07 billion | Operating Cash Flow: 5.82 billion Please remember to set a GTC (Good till Cancelled) selling order at $1.00 over your purchase price as soon as your order fills to lock in a win when the options reach the target selling price. Remember: Life’s a Journey, Enjoy the ride.
(At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stock mentioned.) |
2014-03-19 – M-I-C-K-E-Y Spells DITM Win! |
Today, I am going once again with a very well known brand that has provided happiness, joy and adventure for all ages since 1955, the Walt Disney Co. (DIS).
There is probably no other company you can invest in that is guaranteed to instill some appreciation for what they do from people of all ages. Disney is again had a small drop in share price from last week’s market pull back. It’s already started to head back up. This is the opportunity we need to catch a quick win on the bounce. Plus there are several layers of support should the stock not bounce high enough right away. Company stats are as follows: Revenue comes in at $46.01 billion; Forward P/E is 17.90 and the PEG Ratio is 1.27; Return on Equity is 15.67%; total cash is $4.40 billion; operating cash flow is $9.52 billion and debt is a little less than twice that at $15.40 billion. The forward P/E ratio is consistent for DIS, so although a bit high for what Nails likes to recommend, it’s consistent and not a red flag. It is the stock chart I like the best about DIS right now. It’s been steadily climbing and looks to continue the trend. Please remember that as soon as an order fills, it is always a good idea to place your limit order for the sell at a $1.00 higher than the purchase price, to lock in a win – as soon as it happens. Remember: Life is a Journey; enjoy the ride! Note: Dykstra held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-03-17 – A Kiss for Luck and PFE |
For those of you that enjoy a little green, Happy St. Patrick’s Day!
For the last couple weeks, I’ve been looking to add more 2016 options to the portfolio and it seems that they end up being too expensive or too cheap. And, yes they can end up being too cheap. When you compare the price between 2015 and 2016 options there is what I like to look for, a Goldilocks spread between the two. Too large of a spread means very bullish, we like that but we don’t want to pay too much. Too small of a difference and we are looking then at a more bearish outlook long term, and that isn’t a good place to be either. We want options that will pop. If we go with a very bullish outlook and the market doesn’t respond in kind, then we will end up with long term options that don’t go up enough when the stock raises, so it takes longer to get a win. If we go with one that’s too cheap, the same scenario will unfold. Shorter termed options always trade more in tandem with the underlying stock. So for now, the 2015’s seem to be the right choice. But, soon very soon – when the prices are right, I’ll start choosing more and more 2016’s. Today’s recommendation is a 2015 and I am going back to pharmaceutical giant Pfizer Inc. (PFE) once again. Pfizer has been a consistent winner for the strategy, and it doesn’t matter how many times a company wins for us or when the last win crossed over, if we can score again, that is the plan… as many times as possible. Pfizer is a New York based company with a market cap close to $2 billion and a current 5-year average dividend yield of approximately 3.6%. The stock chart is telling me the timing is right for a buy. There is short term support where we are now and again at $28 and additional support at $27.50 for the rebuy strategy. The stock closed Friday at $31.23. The 52-week high mark is $32.96 posting that a little over a week ago. The overall market, and several stocks I looked at this morning are all trending with similar patterns. Everything is down from the recent peak, but long term trending is still up. Pfizer is a solid company and the January 2015 options are very affordable, and as I said above, soon we’ll be going out to 2016 for our recommendations (by March/April that’s where the picks will be). Buying now means we are buying at a discount and it will be easy to get in on the day’s recommendation. Here are the stats to make note of: Revenue: $51.58 billion | Forward P/E: 13.29 | Return on Equity: 14.42% | Total Cash: $32.50 billion | Total Debt: $36.79 billion | Operational Cash Flow: $17.76 billion | Institutional Support: 73.70% If the position fills today, I will immediately place a GTC limit order to sell the options at a point higher. This locks in a win of $1000 for the 10 contracts I am recommending today. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned. |
2014-03-14 – HAL Is the King! |
Yesterday, long time subscriber Tom sent me a tip on Transocean (RIG) and here at Nails, we’ve picked and done well with RIG several times. Right now the floor seems to have been ripped out of the stock chart for RIG and after checking up on the stock, it looks as though it’s going to get worse before it gets better. RIG’s stock chart is screaming for a comeback – but, it is looking like it is not going to happen just yet. RIG will be a good pick again; however I do want to see where the bottom is before I recommend it. Then we will be in good shape for a really nice win.
Although after taking the time looking into RIG and the sector, the recommendation today didn’t stray too far away and is global monster Halliburton (HAL). The company is coming down off the most recent high, but the long term trend is up. Although I’d like to see it down a tiny bit more, finding opportunity in a sea of choices that are all looking as though the right timing for a buy will be in the next couple of weeks has made me take HAL when timing could be a bit better. Here are the stats to take note of: Forward P/E is 11.03; Return on Equity is 14.39%; Revenue continues to be strong at $29.40 billion annually. Debt is very manageable at $7.82 billion with operating cash flow coming in at $4.45 billion. Timing is good for a buy, not perfect – but good. If you’re not feeling the love and the strategy gets a buy – just wait for the first rebuy, and buy it then, because that’s when the timing will be even better. Also remember, if the order fills today, set a GTC sell order at $1.00 than your purchase price to take the cash as soon as our target sell price is reached and head to the bank. Remember: Life’s a Journey, Enjoy the ride. (At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stock mentioned.) CORRECTION: There was an error on the open portfolio with IP, the correct option wasn’t posted. It has been corrected. |
2014-03-12 – Save Big on COST |
Later in the week, I expect to have some better choices for buys. This morning things are still somewhat challenging to find all the right indicators.
I decided to add Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) to the DITM portfolio this morning as COST looked like it would offer a fast turnaround for a quick win. As we all know, Costco operates membership warehouses and offers discounts on brand and private label goods and services – with no frills stores and high quality merchandise, usually packaged for mega consumers. It’s a great place to shop if you have a few kids, own a business or like quality with competitive prices, and have room at home for quantity. From open to close, the place is always busy, always hopping, and always clean. The company sells just about everything, except for the item you bought last week; those will be gone. This “here today, gone tomorrow” situation with inventory sets up a consumer attitude where there is always a spending frenzy, as consumers never know if the items that catch their eye will be in stock the next time they shop, with the exception of the Kirkland brand of products which are Costco’s own brand of merchandise. Along with most of the merchandise they sell, the company has an extra large balance sheet too. Revenues are posted at $107.89 billion annually, $6.48 billion in the bank and $4.98 billion in debt. It has a return-on-equity (ROE) of 18.10% and forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21.97, which is quite a bit higher than what I like to see for bargain shopping, but they support a higher P/E ratio on a consistent basis. In November, the company posted a new 52-week high mark of $126.12 and the stock closed yesterday, trading at $114.71, up from the most recent low, but low enough from the high water mark, which tells me we have a great buy opportunity. Please note that COST options usually carry an extra buck or two in premium over the standard Nails formula because the stock price is up there and it can support it. It’s a percentage thing and rather consistent. If the order is filled, don’t forget to place a good-till-cancel (GTC) sell order $1.00 higher than the fill price in order to grab a $1,000 victory as soon as possible. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned. |
2014-03-10 – Taking A Second Swing at IP |
Last week, Wednesday – I went with this same choice. However, the pick wasn’t filled, but it would have filled on Thursday at the price recommended. In looking for a selection this morning – this one still looks like a great choice. So it is back again for a second swing. Today’s pick is once again paper and packaging company,International Paper Co. (IP).
International Paper is a global paper and packaging company with manufacturing operations in more than 20 countries, including the United States, Europe, Latin America and Asia, and they operate 18 pulp, paper and packaging mills, 94 converting and packaging plants, and five wood products facilities. With annual sales of about $26.20 billion, they employ nearly 70,000 people worldwide, and they have a long-standing policy of using no wood from endangered forests. They make the products that are essential for today, while sustaining millions of acres of forest for the needs of future generations; as they are the nation’s largest private landowner and seedling grower, planting more than 500 million seedlings a year. Here are the metrics to take note of: Forward P/E – 10.87; Return on Equity – 17.68%; Revenue – $29.08 billion; total cash – $1.80 billion; operating cash flow – 3.03 billion; debt $11.53 billion (a little high, but consistent). Please remember to post a GTC (good till cancelled) order at $1.00 higher than the purchase price to lock in a win. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned. |
2014-03-07 – Dial Up a Win with T |
Today I am looking to add AT&T, Inc. (T) to the portfolio. The timing for AT&T looks good and the option price is perfect for the start of moving the picks out to 2016 leaps. This month I will be comparing the 2016 leaps with the usual 2015 picks. I’ll go with the leaps when they make the most sense. By next month, most all picks will be leaping into 2016.
AT&T is headquartered in Dallas, Texas and is the largest US telecommunications services provider with nearly 243,000 employees. The company’s wire-line business provides local telephone, long-distance, and Internet access services to residential and business customers. The companies wireless service comes in second, after Verizon, but is perking up with offerings of the newest iPhone 5C’s at no charge with a two-year contract. The numbers aren’t bad – revenue of $128.75 billion; a forward P/E of 11.66; operating cash flow of $34.80 billion; total cash on hand of $3.44 billion; making T a very solid play, even with debt at $75.31 billion. However, it is the chart for the stock that has me posting the pick today, which tells me timing looks good for AT&T to trend upward for a change of pace. The stock is trading close to the 52-week low and I had to look at the two year low to find support for the recommended strike price. It looks like up is the most logical direction from here. This feels like a quick win for Lenny’s DITM calls strategy. Remember, once filled – please remember to place a GTC sell order a dollar higher than the purchase price, as this will automatically capture what we set out to achieve; a really quick $1,000 dollar profit. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride!
At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned. |
2014-03-05 – Write Up a Win with IP |
Monday and Tuesday brought another three wins to the Nails strategy, bringing our win total up to 410. This morning was a bit challenging to find a pick with potential for a quick win as nearly every stock is doing well. The open portfolio is starting to get a bit lighter and that is always a good thing. Let’s hope the current trend continues and we see several more wins over the next week or two.
Today’s pick is once again paper and packaging company, International Paper Co. (IP). International Paper is a global paper and packaging company with manufacturing operations in more than 20 countries, including the United States, Europe, Latin America and Asia, and they operate 18 pulp, paper and packaging mills, 94 converting and packaging plants, and five wood products facilities. With annual sales of about $26.20 billion, they employ nearly 70,000 people worldwide, and they have a long-standing policy of using no wood from endangered forests. They make the products that are essential for today, while sustaining millions of acres of forest for the needs of future generations; as they are the nation’s largest private landowner and seedling grower, planting more than 500 million seedlings a year. Here are the metrics to take note of: Forward P/E – 10.88; Return on Equity – 17.68%; Revenue – $29.05 billion; total cash – $1.80 billion; operating cash flow – 3.06 billion; debt $11.53 billion (a little high, but consistent). Please remember to post a GTC (good till cancelled) order at $1.00 higher than the purchase price to lock in a win. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride!
At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned. |
2014-03-03 – Portfolio Review |
Here is the review of all current open positions. Please make note of the new rebuy recommendations, there were quite a few.
Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) – was added to the scorecard on Friday. No changes beyond adding it to the scorecard was necessary. Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) – was added to the scorecard on February 24, 2014. We have 10 contracts with an average price of $2.80 and the options have dropped down to $2.62. It’s still early with this pick and no immediate changes are needed. Altria Group (MO) – was added to the open portfolio on February 21, 2014. We have 10 contracts with an average cost of $5.50 and the options have gone up and are currently going for $5.85. It’s not enough to score us a win, but the position is looking good and on track without any rebuy changes needed. Bank of America (BAC) – has been on the open portfolio list since February 12, 2014. We have 10 contracts with an average price of $5.20 and they are currently listed at $4.70. The rebuy price is OK for now. Intel Corporation (INTC) – has been on the scorecard since January 22, 2014. We have 30 contracts now with an average price of $4.20 and the options are currently going for $4.96. INTC seems to be topping out so if you want to sell early, by all means – pull the plug if the stock is trading higher this morning. The rebuy price has been adjusted to reflect the most recent double-low. Deere & Company (DE) – has been on the scorecard since January 17th. We have 30 contracts at $9.30 and the options are going for $7.55. Another rebuy wouldn’t be a bad idea. The rebuy price has been adjusted so we can lower our average price further should the stock fall again. However, I am sensing that if the market rises – this will be the starting point for a nice bounce for DE. Coca-Cola Company (KO) – has been on the scorecard since January 13th. We have 40 contracts with an average price of $4.50 and the options are currently going for $3.85. The rebuy price has been adjusted accordingly, but it looks like the market could be going the right direction for the position to come back into the green. General Electric (GE) – has been on the scorecard since January 10th. Here too the rebuy price was adjusted to reflect most recent support levels. We have 40 contracts with an average price of $4.80 and the current price for the options is $3.90 so a rebuy would be a good move at the right price. The rebuy has been adjusted just for that. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) – has been an open position since January 6th. We now hold 60 contracts with an average price of $8.90 and the options are currently selling for $7.70. A rebuy here too would be prudent and the rebuy price has been adjusted accordingly. However, with the nice bump in price locking in our Friday win for Target (TGT), I expect that we will see a sector bump here too. Procter & Gamble (PG) – has been with us since December 6th. We have 80 contracts with an average price of $10.90 which are going for $9.19. The rebuy price for PG has been changed and since share price here has moved up a bit from the most recent low. Let’s hope we can grab a win should the current bounce upward continue for a bit longer. Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) – has been on the open portfolio list since November 27th and we have 60 contracts with an average price of $6.40. The options are currently going for $6.20 for which we have made up some needed ground with this pick. VZ needs to rally some more before we can post a win with this position. A new rebuy has been posted. Kraft Foods Group Inc. (KRFT) has been on the scorecard since 08/05 and we hold 90 contracts in our virtual portfolio at $5.30 with the options selling for $5.50. This is a huge turnaround from last month and a direct result of the double down play that was recommended. On February 20, 2014 the options posted the needed $6.30 win however, that was the ask price, not the bid – so let me know out there if anyone scored a win on this one. In the meantime, I’ll continue to score it as open. I don’t expect KRFT to be on the open list next month. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride!
At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned. |
2014-02-28 – Chip One In With QCOM |
Once again the plan is to add Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) to the Nails open portfolio. QCOM has performed quite nicely for the Nails strategy this past year, scoring a lot of quick wins for us. The goal of the Nails strategy is to get in and get out with a quick win as often as possible.
QUALCOMM Incorporated makes digital telecommunications products. The company develops and supplies integrated circuits and system software for voice and data communications, networking, application processing, multimedia, and global positioning systems. QCOM is headquartered in San Diego, California and employs about 31,000. QCOM is a monster company with revenue of $25.47 billion, debt at only $13.0 million as compared to total cash of $17.28 billion and operating cash flow of $9.58 billion making for a very solid balance sheet with a debt ratio that is truly enviable. The company’s forward P/E ratio is a modest 13.28 with a PEG Ratio of 0.98 and a return on equity of 17.65%. About 79.60% of the stock is held by institutional traders. All in all, the stats tell me this continues to make a nice choice and I am seeing upside potential with QCOM yet again. As many times as this stock looks good to buy – it will be a top recommendation as we have been able to count on it over and over again. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride!
At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned. |
2014-02-26 – Take off With BA |
In searching out this morning’s pick, I studied lots and lots of stock charts, I poked about in several stock related news articles and pulled up the technical stats, reviewing lots of choices. The results are in and there really isn’t a perfect choice out there this morning. I’m seeing mixed indicators. That means tread carefully. It’s an expensive choice and it could score you a one day win – but, we really can’t promise that.
So today’s pick is Boeing Company (BA), which is involved in the design, development, manufacture, sale and support of commercial jetliners, military aircraft, satellites, missile defense, human space flight, and launch systems and services. Boeing is a major player in the U.S. defense industry and will continue to win both defense and commercial contracts well into the future. They just scored a big defense contract with the Navy worth $2.1 billion for 16 P-8A Poseidon spy planes and will get another big payday building eight more of the same for Australia for $3.6 billion. And on the same day, the stock tumbles nearly three points. I expect the stock to recover a bit of that rather quickly. Here at Nails we don’t need much of an uptick to score a win. Boeing has held steady as a solid choice for the Nails strategy again and again. Here are the numbers to note: Forward P/E Ratio – 15.39, PEG Ratio – 1.67, Return on Equity – 43.75%, Revenue – $86.62 billion, total cash – $15.21 billion, debt – $9.64 billion and operating income is posted at $8.18 billion. Remember: Life’s a Journey, Enjoy the ride. (At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stock mentioned.) |
2014-02-24 – CSCO Kid is a Friend of Mine |
Today’s pick is Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO).
The Company provides a line of products for transporting data, voice, and video within buildings, across many platforms, and around the world. Its products are designed to transform how people connect, communicate and collaborate. Cisco Systems, Inc.’s products, which include primarily routers, switches, and products that the Company refers to as its technologies, are installed at enterprises, public institutions, telecommunications companies, commercial businesses and personal residences. They have been in business since 1984 and employ over 75,000 people. CSCO’s current price is at $22.13, down from the last summer’s high of $26.49 and a recent high of $22.85. The forward P/E ratio is 10.54, PEG ratio is 1.33, and return on equity is 14.65%. Revenue is $47.87 billion, of which they have $47.06 billion in cash (such a lovely number), and $12.60 billion in operating cash flow. The debt is quite manageable at $17.15 billion as compared to operating cash flow and the company has enough cash in the bank to pay off debt nearly three times over, which is a very healthy cash position to be in. I sure wish I had enough liquid assets to pay off my house three times. And, institutional investors make up 74.10% of those that own the stock. Almost all the stock charts of our favorite Nails picks are topping off, but – CSCO’s chart is looking good for some upside potential and another quick DITM win and the options are cheap too. Please remember to set a GTC sell order at $1.00 higher than the purchase price once an order fills to lock in a win when the target sales price is reached. Always Remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned. |
2014-02-21 – Give Me MO |
Today’s recommendation is a favorite of Lenny’s and one we have done quite well with here at Nails. As a non-smoker and one of those people who really dislikes everything having to do with cigarettes, today’s choice would never be an emotional favorite. However, there are still plenty of people in the world who seem to enjoy smelling bad and continue to waste their money buying the nasty little cancer sticks – so, why not make a buck off their poor judgment?
Companies like Altria Group, Inc. (MO) – which is today’s choice – can be profitable for our bottom line, even if we may not like what they sell. And, when it comes to making money, we should not let our emotions get in the way, at least not when it’s a stock choice. Although it is easier to pull the trigger when you love the products of the companies you buy – but, it’s not a requirement for making a profit. As you know, MO primarily manufactures and sells cigarettes, smokeless products, with brands such as Marlboro, Copenhagen, Skoal, along with a few others. The company also maintains a portfolio of leveraged and direct finance leases in rail and surface transport, aircraft, electric power, real estate, and manufacturing. The company was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia and employs about 9,100 people. The stats for the company to note are: Forward P/E: 12.88; Return on Equity: 123.28%; Quarterly Earnings Growth: -55.80%; Revenue: $17.66 billion; Total Cash: $3.18 billion; Total Debt: $14.52 billion and Operating Cash Flow: $4.38 billion. The stock chart shows upside potential, they posted negative quarterly earnings growth, so the stock drove down rather quickly last month, but is now on the rise. Please remember that when the order fills, it is important to set a good-till-cancel (GTC) sell order $1.00 above the purchase price to lock in a win. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! Note: I held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-02-19 – Rebuy VZ at Market |
In looking at the market, the stock charts and the positions we have now. Instead of picking something new that’s not to my liking – I’m going to recommend picking up more Verizon (VZ) options as the support level it is at right now is a good one and we should take advantage of that while there is opportunity. We did see a rebuy of VZ yesterday, but getting that average price down even more will really shore up the position.
Verizon is headquartered in New York and is the second largest US telecommunications services provider (after AT&T) and has taken the top spot in wireless services (ahead of AT&T). Verizon touts itself as America’s most reliable wireless network and the most advanced fiber-optic network. The company delivers integrated business solutions to customers in more than 150 countries, including all of the Fortune 500. A Dow 30 company, Verizon employs nearly 180,000. The company’s wire-line business provides local telephone, long-distance, and Internet access services to residential and business customers. I have Verizon FIOS and you can’t get a better consumer internet provider in the home without installing a T-1 line. Their HD TV FIOS service isn’t bad either and picture quality is excellent. However all in all, the numbers are still nice to look at – Verizon has revenue of $120.55 billion; a forward P/E of 11.85; operating cash flow of $38.82 billion; total cash on hand of $54.13 billion; making Verizon a very solid play, even with debt at $93.59 billion. The chart for the stock tells me timing is good for adding to our position. This feels like a quick win for Lenny’s DITM calls strategy. Remember, once filled – please remember to place a GTC sell order a dollar higher than the average price, as this will automatically capture a solid win. Remember: Life’s a Journey, Enjoy the ride. (At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stock mentioned.) |
2014-02-14 – XOXO for XOM |
Happy Valentine’s Day to Everyone! Hope all your sweethearts are happy, healthy and know they are loved.
With the crazy weather (although it’s lovely here, it’s still crazy for February), there have been some technical difficulties with posting, updating and most especially emailing. Things are taking much longer to update and Yahoo! email has been struggling to send email timely for several days, sometimes taking several days. If you’re not getting your update – I do apologize, but we are sending them timely. From some of the email that has gotten through – I’ve gotten a heads up for today’s pick. We can all say thanks to Carl for today’s choice and his timely pointing out how fabulous the start chart looks. He is not wrong. So, this morning the plan is to follow Carl into the gas station and fill up with Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM). Exxon Mobil is considered one of the big guns in the energy sector, packing the largest cap rate and highest revenue and has basically the biggest numbers across the board. You can say they are not just a big gun, but the biggest gun in the sector. With gas prices so high at the pump – especially here in Southern California – it’s especially nice when I can score with an oil company and get a little back. XOM operates in the exploration, production and sales of crude oil, natural gas and petroleum products, with approximately 37,228 wells around the world. The company was founded in 1870, so you can say they have a bit of experience. In looking at the stock chart, it is a good time to make a purchase of XOM options. I’m going with a very conservative option price this morning. The market looks like it may move up a bit today, so please note that I am taking into account a modest uptick in share prices to come up with the best option price. Let’s look at the numbers for XOM: revenue comes in at $407.67 billion; Forward P/E is 11.80; Return on Equity is 19.27%; total cash is $5.31 billion; operating cash flow is being updated on Yahoo! but was posted $47.93 billion last month and debt is manageable at $21.29 billion. Timing looks good for another solid Nails play. Please remember to lock in a win by setting a good-till-cancelled (GTC) selling order once a position is filled. Remember: Life is a Journey; enjoy the ride! Note: I held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-02-12 – Deposit a Win with BAC |
Today, I am going back to the bank with Bank of America (BAC) and the option here has a very small premium as the stock price is under $20.00 and the options are going for about 30 cents above the stock price less the strike price (at market close, yesterday), so let’s not overpay.
BAC is the most used bank as it provides unmatched location convenience in the United States, serving approximately 53 million consumer and small business relationships with more than 5,700 retail banking offices, nearly 17,750 ATMs and award-winning online banking with 29 million active users, serving clients in more than 150 countries. Bank of America is once again a good buy. The stock closed yesterday at $16.88 which is still cheaper than many of the options that are recommended, and is down from the most recent high by almost a point and trending up. BAC, even though priced low, has performed as outlined in the Nails strategy many times, so if filled we will stay with our normal target exit point, unless the market pulls the rug out and we end up lowering expectations across the board. Here are some stats to note: Forward P/E – 10.40; PEG Ratio – 0.61; Return on Equity – 4.87% (the reason for the cheapness); Revenue – $85.39 billion; Cash – $581.68 billion; and, Debt – $531.19 billion. Today’s recommendation looks to be another quick score, like we have done many times with this choice and comes with a tiny premium that makes it even more attractive. Please watch the GTC that is posted if we get our fill, should I feel the need for us to cut and run on this one early. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! Note: I held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-02-10 – Cat Round Up with EMC |
Good morning everyone. Today is Lenny’s birthday. The Big Cheese is 51 today. If anyone would like to wish Lenny a Happy Birthday, please feel free to send him an email through the comment section of the website. Let him know how well you’re doing with his system. He’d love to hear from you.
That said, let’s get right into doing what we do best. Here at Nails, we select stocks based on fundamental strength, buy at key support levels and sell when the options clear a predetermined price point, keeping our emotions from snagging up the system. Over and over, the system continues to perform. Today’s pick is IT giant EMC Corp. (EMC). EMC is a monster company that has been providing information storage solutions for 30+ years. They provide IT solutions to every industry and to nearly every country around the globe. If you’ve got a computer network, chances are good EMC was or is involved. Their company tag line is: “where information lives,” and they aren’t kidding. In looking at the numbers I see a forward P/E of 11.29, which is a good indicator that the stock is trading at a good price. Anything under 15 is considered to be undervalued, and that is the place we want our stocks to be priced. When they are undervalued, that’s the best time to buy. Revenue for the company is close to $23.22 billion, total cash on hand is $10.66 billion and debt is very reasonable at $7.16 billion. The company scores big for keeping debt ratios manageable and operating cash flow of $6.92 billion is also very healthy. EMC’s stock chart is showing a sizable drop in share price over the last couple weeks along with every other stock. I see this as a clear opportunity to put more cash in the bank for the Nails strategy. For this one I say, “Lock & Load.” Please remember to immediately set up a GTC sell order $1.00 higher to cash out a cool $1000 gain. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! Note: Dykstra held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-02-07 – Bigger Again in TXN |
CORRECTION: I posted a WMT rebuy for 02/04/14, however on that day there were no trades for our WMT Jan 15 $67.50 option. However, the rebuy would have posted on 02/05/14. This creates a problem because I assuming that anyone following the system would have noticed and gone back to the previous rebuy price posted that had not yet been executed. I’ve updated the trade to reflect a rebuy on the 5th, however – if anyone holding the position traded this differently, please let me know. Thank you.
Now let’s get right to today’s pick: Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN), creators of the first computer using integrated circuits and the first handheld calculator. TXN has an excellent track record here at Nails and one of my personal favorites. We got a one day win last month and the stock chart looks poised for a repeat, so let’s get in for another quick DITM win. TI’s vision for new products is to help create self-driving cars for and controls for home appliances linked to your cells phones. In the future – TI and I both seem to think that our world will soon be condensed into what can be programmed into a phone app or how you can gain access to their new DLP technology for projectors using a wide array of platforms, including again – smart phones, tablets and laptops. From previous columns about the company, you will know that Texas Instruments is a world leader in digital signal processing and analog technologies. With over 34,000 employees worldwide, they are a monster company with a rock solid balance sheet. Revenue comes in at $12.20 billion and the company’s forward P/E ratio is still looking a bit on the high side at 17.29 and return on equity posts at 19.86%. TXN manufactures a whole host of products, from audio, video and imaging — to medical, industrial and military products and applications. This company is all about cash management and that is a very healthy way to run a business. Debt doesn’t have to be bad, but if you can keep your cash in the bank and generate continued organic company growth – you are certainly doing something right. Although in 2012, TXN added a bit of long term financing to its balance sheet– adding debt by financing the purchase of National Semiconductor. And it is through this purchase of National Semiconductor that supplies Apple components which has been helping TXN’s share price for a while. They have cash in the bank totaling $3.83 billion, debt of $5.16 billion and operating cash flow of $3.38 billion. Looking to the chart, we see Texas Instruments has been steadily climbing since mid-October of 2012 and currently sits in the low $40’s. I am seeing support at several levels and room at the top after our most recent pull back, so we wouldn’t need to break resistance to see a win. We don’t need much of a spread for a good DITM opportunity, so today offers us a good opportunity for a buy. But, if we don’t get on base today, look for a repeat column in the next week or two. Please remember it is important to set a good-till-cancel (GTC) sell order $1.00 above the purchase price to lock in a win, should your order fill. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! Note: I held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-02-05 – Flying High WIth UTX |
As the morning has progressed, stocks that looked good, switched directions; and a couple that showed indications of a strong start have dropped at the open. The market is sending mixed signals.
We have been seeing the market drop quite a bit from recent highs, and as a result more stocks are lining up nicely with the Nails strategy. Additionally, more choices in the open portfolio are hitting rebuy prices as evidenced by Monday’s near rebuy of the whole open portfolio (sans a couple choices) . When it comes down to a choice between buying a new position or rebuying an existing position, we recommend taking care of what you have first and going with the rebuy. And, if it comes down between a choice of rebuying one choice over another, go with the choice that provides the most leverage on the current price. This morning, I am going with one of our Nails long time favorites, United Technologies Corporation (UTX). Getting a Win out of UTX isn’t as hard as getting in on the options for the right price, but with just about everything looking good and prices being soft, we should be able to get on base with UTX at the price listed. As you know from previous columns, UTX specializes in technology products, building systems and aerospace. The options for this company have been elusive, to say the least, but it is better to go after the best companies and not get filled – over going with a so-so company that fills and ends up being a so-so choice. There is nothing so-so about UTX. Anyone who has spent time in an elevator or used an escalator or moving sidewalk is familiar with their Otis segment, and one would be equally hard-pressed to find someone who has never heard of Carrier cooling systems, Pratt & Whitney jet engines or Sikorsky helicopters – all of which are UTX brands. United Technologies is a mega-conglomerate that is vastly diverse and on the cutting edge on technological innovation. They employ about 218,000 people and have been around since 1934; UTX is here to stay and has been a valuable component in my DITM strategy. Here are the numbers to take note of: Revenue – $62.63 billion, Forward P/E ratio – 14.23, PEG ratio – 1.47, Return on equity – 20.03%, Cash – 4.62 billion, Debt – 20.24 billion, and Operating cash flow – 6.88 billion. Please be sure to set a GTC sell order for $1.00 more than the purchase price to lock in a $1000 gain when the price hits our sales target. Remember: Life’s a Journey, Enjoy the ride. (At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stock mentioned.) |
2014-02-03 – Clear The Field with ABT |
Happy post Super Bowl Monday! Did anyone out there see that coming? Those betting on Denver got spanked along with anyone who was betting on a good January for investments. The market seems to be having fun with bulls and bears alike making it fun to guess what way things will swing next.
When in doubt, I always pull up the most recent article by Ken Fisher in Forbes to get my focus back. And, he usually has a good choice or two to go with. Therefore, my pick today is Abbott Laboratories (ABT), which is trending along with most everything else that has dipped and looking to bounce back up and is a Ken Fisher choice for the month as well. ABT should give us a chance to score another DITM win with this pharmaceutical giant. Revenue comes in at $21.85 billion, a Forward P/E ratio of 14.79, and Abbott has $8.61 billion in cash with $8.26 billion in debt. Further, its one-year low is only 23% off of its high making this is a very stable company to go with. Please remember that once your order fills it is important to set a good-till-cancel (GTC) sell order $1.00 above the purchase price to lock in a win. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! Note: I held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-01-31 – Portfolio Review |
Here is the review of all current open positions. Please make note of the new rebuy recommendations, there were quite a few.
Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) – is the newest position on the open positions list. No changes are needed with COST. Intel Corporation (INTC) – has been on the scorecard about a week. We have 10 contracts with an average price of $5.30 and the options are currently going for $4.94. INTC seems to be bottoming out but would need to go lower to justify a rebuy. We don’t need any changes. Deere & Company (DE) – has been on the scorecard since January 17th. We have 20 contracts at $10.10 and the options are going for $8.55. We need a rebuy and the rebuy price has been adjusted so we can lower our average price further. Coca-Cola Company (KO) – has been on the scorecard since January 13th. With yesterday’s rebuy we now have 30 contracts with an average price of $5.00 (after rounding) and the rebuy price has been adjusted accordingly. General Electric (GE) – has been on the scorecard since January 10th. Here too the rebuy price was adjusted to reflect most recent support levels. We have 30 contracts with an average price of $5.20 and the current price for the options is $3.92 so a rebuy is needed and if the market continues its decline throughout the day, we could see this one rebuy today. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) – has been an open position since January 6th. We now hold 40 contracts with an average price of $9.70 and the options are currently selling for $7.80. A rebuy here too would be prudent and the rebuy price has been adjusted accordingly. Pfizer Inc. (PFE) – was added to the open portfolio on January 3rd. We’ve had a lot of open positions fill this month that we are still carrying. February looks like it might be a good month for the Nails strategy. With PFE we have just 10 contracts still and the options are trading just ten cents below our average of $4.20. I did adjust the rebuy to be consistent with current support levels. Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) – was added on December 13th. We have 20 contracts with an average price of $8.60 with the options currently going for $9.00. MSFT looks to be trending higher. The rebuy price has been adjusted, but doubtful that it will be needed. Make sure that if the rubuy recommendation is hit, that rebuying the options will lower your average enough to make a difference. Procter & Gamble (PG) – has been with us since December 6th. We have 60 contracts with an average price of $11.80 which are going for $8.90 or so as of yesterday’s close. The rebuy price for PG has been changed and since share price here also looks like may be close to bottoming out. Let’s hope that happens soon so we can grab one more rebuy then be great shape to take advantage of the next bounce upward. Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) – has been on the open portfolio list since November 27th and we have 30 contracts with an average price of $7.30. The options are currently going for $6.15 so we will need to make up some ground with VZ before we can post a win with this position. The stock chart here too looks kind of “iffy” for the coming weeks. It will be prudent to buy more VZ options to get our price down more so going to up the rebuy to $47.10. Target Corporation (TGT) – has been on the list since November 25th. There are now 50 contracts with an average price of $6.00 and the options are currently going for $3.55. With the credit card debacle over Christmas, TGT;s share price is going to get worse before it gets better. I’m already posting rebuys at the two year support levels and we are now seriously out of the money. I don’t think we need to bail on the position. But we need to stay sharp and keep our rebuy target low, which is where it is currently set. I don’t want to buy, buy, buy all the way down. I want to watch it fall, then double up at the bottom, so we can ride it back up. I would estimate that we will need three to six months before I’m posting good news about TGT. Kraft Foods Group Inc. (KRFT) has been on the scorecard since 08/05 and we hold 40 contracts in our virtual portfolio at $6.60 with the options selling for $4.30. If we hit the rebuy price on this one – it would be a good opportunity to double down or buy as many as you can. Last month I recommended a double down play on the rebuy, but the price never dropped enough to make that happen. This month I’m sticking with the same advice – to double up with the next rebuy. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned. |
2014-01-29 – Sticking With MMM |
Today I am going back to multi-industry conglomerate 3M (MMM).
3M has been a consistent winner for Nails and the stock chart looks right, I can’t resist taking a swing. Using a basket of stocks is one of the better parts of the Nails strategy; knowing you can win with the same choice again and again. Although with 3M, it can be a challenge getting on base. 3M is a highly profitable, technologically differentiated innovation machine that is best known for everybody’s favorite reminder: the Post-It Note. I doubt you could find a home or office anywhere without a cube of the infamous sticky notes, as they are a fixture essentially anywhere and everywhere. Beyond the Post-It, 3M has a lot to offer consumers and investors, operating in six business segments: industrial and transportation; health care; safety, security and protection services; consumer and office; display and graphics, and electro and communications. Though they are based in Minneapolis, MN, the company spans the globe. In fact, their exposure to faster growth markets abroad is phenomenal. Two-thirds of their revenue is currently derived internationally. Looking at the stats: Forward P/E: 17.38, Return on Equity: 25.33%, Revenue: 30.69 billion, Total Cash: 3.31 billion, Total Debt: 5.78 billion, Operating Cash Flow: 5.56 billion Please remember to set a GTC (Good till Cancelled) selling order at $1.00 over your purchase price as soon as your order fills to lock in a win when the options reach the target selling price. Also, please note that 3M is scheduled to release earnings tomorrow morning. That can make today’s choice a bit riskier than if I had gone with a company that had already announced. However, the stock chart is telling me the opportunity is now. Lenny always prefers it if I stay away from earnings, as they can be unpredictable, so you can always sit this one out and follow the master. Remember: Life’s a Journey, Enjoy the ride. (At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stock mentioned.) |
2014-01-27 – Filler Up With XOM |
This morning the plan is to fill up with Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM). Exxon Mobil is considered one of the big guns in the energy sector, packing the largest cap rate and highest revenue and has basically the biggest numbers across the board. You can say they are not just a big gun, but the biggest gun in the sector.
With gas prices so high at the pump – especially here in Southern California – it’s especially nice when I can score with an oil company and get a little back. XOM operates in the exploration, production and sales of crude oil, natural gas and petroleum products, with approximately 37,228 wells around the world. The company was founded in 1870, so you can say they have a bit of experience. In looking at the stock chart, it is a good time to make a purchase of XOM options. With the market experiencing a nose dive this past week and much of our open portfolio shoring up for additional rebuys across the board, I’m going with a very conservative option price this morning. The market looks like it may bounce back a bit today, it’s off to a modest uptick in share prices. Let’s look at the numbers for XOM: revenue comes in at $397.58 billion; Forward P/E is 12.10; Return on Equity is 20.19%; total cash is $5.31 billion; operating cash flow is $47.93 billion and debt is manageable at $21.29 billion. Timing looks good for another solid Nails play. Please remember to lock in a win by setting a good-till-cancelled (GTC) selling order once a position is filled. Remember: Life is a Journey; enjoy the ride! Note: I held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-01-24 – Mega Buys at COST |
Today, I found a few nice choices I could have gone with after yesterday’s spanking the market took.I decided to add Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) to the DITM portfolio this morning as COST looked like it would offer a fast turnaround for a quick win.
As we all know, Costco operates membership warehouses and offers discounts on brand and private label goods and services – with no frills stores and high quality merchandise, usually packaged for mega consumers. It’s a great place to shop if you have a few kids, own a business or like quality with competitive prices, and have room at home for quantity. From open to close, the place is always busy, always hopping, and always clean. The company sells just about everything, except for the item you bought last week; those will be gone. This “here today, gone tomorrow” situation with inventory sets up a consumer attitude where there is always a spending frenzy, as consumers never know if the items that catch their eye will be in stock the next time they shop, with the exception of the Kirkland brand of products which are Costco’s own brand of merchandise. Friends and I call it the $200 club, as you never seem to get out without giving up at least that much cash. Costco operates 642 warehouses in the United States and nine other countries and employs 103,000 people. Along with most of the merchandise they sell, the company has an extra large balance sheet too. Revenues are posted at $106.46 billion annually, $6.44 billion in the bank and $4.99 billion in debt. It has a return-on-equity (ROE) of 17.09% and forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.85, which is a bit higher than what I like to see for bargain shopping, but they support a higher P/E ratio on a consistent basis. In November, the company posted a new 52-week high mark of $126.12 and the stock closed yesterday, trading at $112.80 which is a sharp discount from the high water mark which tells me we have a great buy opportunity. Please note that COST options usually carry an extra buck or two in premium over the standard Nails formula because the stock price is up there and it can support it. It’s a percentage thing and rather consistent. If the order is filled, don’t forget to place a good-till-cancel (GTC) sell order $1.00 higher than the fill price in order to grab a $1,000 victory as soon as possible. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned. |
2014-01-22 – Place All our Chips on INTC |
We’ve an excellent success rate with INTC using the Nails strategy. And, once again it’s looking like a nice buy opportunity. Share price has dropped down from a jump in price, and in looking at the moving averages I am seeing plenty of continued upside potential. With upside potential, there is an opportunity to buy and get another INTC win and the options are going for a really good price too.
In fact, I was thinking of going with the 2016 leaps. It’s time to start thinking about moving our positions forward by making new recommendations 12 months further out. However, I’m not quite there yet. The 2015 are going for such a deal, I’m going to stick with them this morning, but still post the recommendation about ten cents under the current ask price. Let’s see if that works. Here at Nails we have stated many times – Intel continues to be one of the most dominant companies in the world. It defines the term “wide moat,” meaning Intel has very few competitive disadvantages. They control the playing field with an 80% market share and this makes them one of the single best stocks in the world. And they will continue to perform. INTC closed trading yesterday at $25.59, which is not down much from the 52-week high of $27.12 posted about a week ago, so if you think I’m playing it too close to the high, then go ahead and sit it out. But, the drop in share price is consistent with typical Wall Street’s reaction to earnings. INTC jumped up ahead of earnings, perhaps more than what was realistic, then dropped back down again. However the moving averages are still on the rise and look to be expanding. That’s always a good sign. Let’s look to the numbers: Revenue: 52.71 billion, Forward P/E: 12.67, Return on Equity: 17.58%, Cash: 20.09 billion, Debt: 13.45 billion. There were a couple of wins to post – DOW and TXN, and several rebuys to post. Look for the update to the open portfolio to pop in with new numbers next. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! Note: I held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-01-17 – DE in Our Headlights |
The market is getting a bit choppy which tells me that we will soon break resistance and shoot up, or that it could be the volatility of a jerky u-turn towards a market correction. Quarterly earnings will be a strong determining factor which way the tide will turn. In the meantime, I’m going to become very picky and you can expect that not all recommendations will be filled. We don’t want the open positions to grow too quickly ahead of wins, because then keeping the open positions and having the resources to rebuy when needed becomes more difficult.
This morning I am seeing a buy opportunity with Deere & Company (DE) for a nice DITM win. It has been a while since I have stepped up to the plate with DE but the stock chart is looking ripe with opportunity using the Nails strategy. However, in being a little picky, the option recommendation is a bit cheaper than the current ask price. Not a lot cheaper, but enough to make sure we get on base with the better price should the market drop lower today as expected. Yesterday’s close at $89.83 per share – is down 7% from the 52-week high mark and down from the recent high by about 2% and yet the stock chart tells me expect improvement on the horizon. With an estimated $37.80 billion in revenue, Return on equity is posted at 41.30% for most recent quarterly data. Deere P/E ratio tells me the stock is undervalued at 11.74 with a PEG ratio at 1.35. And, after your order is filled, I set a good-till-cancel (GTC) order $1.00 above the average purchase price to lock in a win should the price jump quickly. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! (At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned.) |
2014-01-15 – DOW has Chemistry |
The stock chart is showing plenty of upside potential and it looks like predictable upside potential. Although with predictions, you can get yourself in trouble if you think you really know what’s going to happen with a stock or with the market. We can predict, but we really don’t know.
Here at Nails we seek to take advantage when solid companies see a sudden drop in share price. Remember we do want to buy low and sell high. For us we want to see a drop in price followed by a bounce back u, that’s it. We are getting into earnings coming up and we have seen some advance drops in share prices across the board. DOW may not be changing the world with cutting edge technologies, but – they are stable, predictable and have been around almost as long as the stock market itself. DOW manufactures and supplies chemical products used as raw materials in the manufacture of customer products and services worldwide. For a company that has been around for over a century, they do well enough with updating their methods and considering the environment in their choices going forward. Here are the numbers to consider this morning: Revenue: $56.61 billion, Forward P/E Ratio: 15.20, PEG Ratio: 2.61, Total Cash: $5.10 billion, and Debt: $18.62 billion. Both the PEG Ratio and debt are higher than ideal, however the company performs for Nails over and over and the stock chart and technical charts tell me it’s a good time to buy, plus they continue to offer a consistent dividend payout to stock holders. Please remember to set a GTC selling order once your position is filled, to lock in your win. Remember: Life’s a Journey, Enjoy the ride. (At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stock mentioned.) |
2014-01-13 – Go For the KO Punch |
Today choice is coming down off of a recent spike and is looking as though we could get in at support. Today I am going with Coca-Cola Company (KO). Coke is it!
Although it has been about six months since it was last recommended, KO is one of the favorites to the DITM strategy here at Nails and when it looks good – we need to do what we can to let it win for us. Coca-Cola Company is the largest beverage company in the world and produces over 500 brands. They are also the No.1 provider of sparkling beverages, juices and juice drinks and ready-to-drink teas and coffee. Even with pressure from the United Nations to limit advertising to emerging markets to restrict advertising to children under 12, there may not be a market that Coke hasn’t already sewn up the market, as it is the world’s most recognizable brand. Founded in 1886 and headquartered in Atlanta Georgia and employing about 150,000 people worldwide, Coca-Cola represents the world’s most valuable brand and KO products are sold in over 200 countries worldwide at the rate of 1.6 billion servings per day. By selling the syrups direct to local bottlers and licensing the brand names, Coca-Cola has developed a distribution system that works beautifully. The company focuses on marketing and production and does an excellent job of keeping up with current trends in the beverage market. The brands are so diverse- Fanta, Sprite, Nestea, vitaminwater, Odwalla, Sprite, Minute Maid, Hi-C, Powerade, and so many more… Chances are, if it’s non-alcoholic and comes in a can or bottle, it is likely a Coca-Cola product. Right now the numbers for Coca-Cola are as follows: Forward P/E ratio of 18.00, Return on Equity of 26.67%, Revenue at $47.27 billion, total cash on the balance sheet of $20.51 billion, debt of $36.21 billion, and operating cash of $10.52 billion. The stock closed Friday at $40.13 and might dip down a bit more before it starts heading back up, so if you can get in now, the options are going for less than the Nails formula. I like buying and recommending at the low, but in this case I think the low will be later in the week. It may be better to wait a day or two – but, the same “almost at the low” is occurring across the board on a lot of stock charts that looked attractive this morning. Remember to place a GTC sell order to lock in a win if your order is filled. Remember: Life’s a Journey, Enjoy the ride. Note: Dykstra held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication |
2014-01-10 – Get a Charge Out of GE |
This morning I am going back to a consistent winner, General Electric (GE) and the timing is looking favorable to putting GE in a position to win for us yet again.
Share price is down from last month’s peak and there are several layers of support making this multi-national conglomerate a good deal. The option prices are excellent as well – cheaper than the Nails formula – so good news all around. If you venture out to the GE website and look up their products and services listing – it is quite the list – as GE now covers just about everything from household appliances, aviation equipment and asset management, power generation and distribution, water processing and so on – even entertainment and banking. You could almost say you have a diversified portfolio with just this one purchase. Here are the numbers to note: Revenue: 144.91 billion / Forward P/E: 15.82 / Return on Equity: 11.50% / Cash: 10.20 billion / Debt: 388.10 billion / Operating Cash Flow: 28.42 billion. Debt is outrageously high but the company has a track record of managing debt well and I have found that older companies have more of a tendency to keep a lot of debt. GE has been around since 1892, so that qualifies as not just old but quite stodgy too. The company was originally founded by Thomas Edison and funded by JP Morgan, no lightweights in American History. Please remember that once your order is filled to set a GTC (good ’til cancelled) order at $1.00 higher than your average cost to lock in a $1000 gain. Remember: Life’s a Journey, Enjoy the ride. (At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stock mentioned.) |
2014-01-08 – Wins are Bigger with TXN |
Let’s get right to today’s pick: Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN), creators of the first computer using integrated circuits and the first handheld calculator. TXN has an excellent track record here at Nails and one of my personal favorites. We got a one day win last month and the stock chart looks poised for a repeat, so let’s get in for another quick DITM win.
TI’s vision for new products is to help create self-driving cars for and controls for home appliances linked to your cells phones. In the future – TI and I both seem to think that our world will soon be condensed into what can be programmed into a phone app or how you can gain access to their DLP technology for projectors using a wide array of platforms, including again – smart phones, tablets and laptops. From previous columns about the company, you will know that Texas Instruments is a world leader in digital signal processing and analog technologies. With over 34,000 employees worldwide, they are a monster company with a rock solid balance sheet. Revenue comes in at $12.16 billion and the company’s forward P/E ratio is still looking a bit on the high side at 19.86 and return on equity posts at 17.06%. TXN manufactures a whole host of products, from audio, video and imaging — to medical, industrial and military products and applications. This company is all about cash management and that is a very healthy way to run a business. Debt doesn’t have to be bad, but if you can keep your cash in the bank and generate continued organic company growth – you are certainly doing something right. Although in 2012, TXN added a bit of long term financing to its balance sheet– adding debt by financing the purchase of National Semiconductor. And it is through this purchase of National Semiconductor that supplies Apple components which has been helping TXN’s share price for a while. They have cash in the bank totaling $3.59 billion, debt of $5.16 billion and operating cash flow of $3.27 billion. Looking to the chart, we see Texas Instruments has been steadily climbing since mid-October of 2012 and currently sits near $43. I am seeing support at several levels and room at the top with a recent little pull back, so we wouldn’t need to break resistance to see a win. We don’t need much of a spread for a good DITM opportunity, so today offers us a good opportunity for a buy. But, if we don’t get on base today, look for a repeat column in the next week or two. Please remember it is important to set a good-till-cancel (GTC) sell order $1.00 above the purchase price to lock in a win, should your order fill. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! Note: I held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column at the time of publication. |
2014-01-06 – Discounts for All at WMT |
Today we will look to once again to add Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) to the portfolio. The world’s largest retailer has the distinction of being the world’s largest, because they have successfully combined savings with a wide selection. The stock has taken a small nose dive from its recent high and although it has jumped up a point or two from the low, there is still room to collect a DITM win here.
Wal-Mart is a Major League company and they know how to make that cash register ring 24-7 with revenues of $474.88 billion. Yes folks, that’s right, with all the numbers listed out it reads $474,880,000,000.00 in sales. That is a lot of zeros and a figure that is closing in on half a trillion dollars. The company generates $23.00 billion in operating cash flow, have $8.75 billion in the bank with a hefty debt load of $61.82 billion. Although the debt is large in comparison to cash, this is long term debt, in the stores, the buildings and the land they sit on. You can’t own that much real estate without owing a few mortgage payments and that averages out to about $5.3 million per store. When you consider the size and value of each store, considering only the real estate, it’s not a huge debt to equity position to have. The company has a return-on-equity (ROE) of 22.53% which is good considering their profit margins are small. Forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is currently at 13.95 and I like the fact that when trading WMT options, they too are discounted like the merchandise in the store. There’s never a larger premium on the options as you’d find with other options of stocks going for the same share price. If the order is filled, don’t forget to place a good-till-cancel (GTC) sell order $1.00 higher than the fill price in order to grab a $1,000 victory as soon as possible. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride!
At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned. |
2014-01-03 – A Happy & Healthy Win with PFE |
Good Morning & Happy New Year Everyone!!!
For today’s recommendation I am going back to pharmaceutical giant Pfizer Inc. (PFE) once again. Pfizer has been a consistent winner for the strategy, and it doesn’t matter how many times a company wins for us or when the last win crossed over, if we can score again, that is the plan… as many times as possible. Pfizer is a New York based company with a market cap close to $2 billion and a current 5-year average dividend yield of approximately 4.4%. The stock chart is telling me the timing is right for a buy. There is short term support at $28 and additional support at $27.50 and again at $26+ for the rebuy strategy. The stock closed yesterday at $30.46. The 52-week high mark is $32.80 and the stock recently pulled back from posting that new 52-week high over the last month and a half. Pfizer is a solid company and the January 2015 options are very affordable, as soon we’ll be going out to 2016 for our recommendations (by March/April that’s where the picks will be). Buying now means we are buying at a discount and it will be easy to get in on the day’s recommendation. Here are the stats to make note of: Revenue: $56.25 billion | Forward P/E: 13.36 | Return on Equity: 13.40% | Total Cash: $33.71 billion | Total Debt: $36.75 billion | Operational Cash Flow: $17.24 billion | Institutional Support: 73.70% If the position fills today, I will immediately place a GTC limit order to sell the options at a point higher. This locks in a win of $1000 for the 10 contracts I am recommending today. Always remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride! At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in the stocks mentioned. |